EU Referendum / BREXIT

[Oniya]

For the bemused Americans perusing this thread, the following hyperlink will take you to a layman's explanation by Whinnie The Pooh (totally SFW, some expletives): https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/pooh.png

If you haven't read it, the link that Remiel posted is pretty good, too.

By this point, actual British political news was basically indistinguishable from a random word generator

Brexit explained for Americans.

If you can manage to read it in a John Cleese or Anna Russell voice, it's even better.

[EuphoricDysphoria]

That's very good.

Sadly I have to get my working class nose back to the grindstone.  :'(

[Polymorph]

Corbyn is a Euroskeptic but I do think he's realised the benefit of being on the inside pissing out, than on the outside pissing in, however much it costs us financially. The EU may have its drawbacks but there has been no major conflict in Europe since its inception, so in those terms it has been a success. Communication over conflict SHOULD always be a no brainer.

Possibly, the split on in or out broke through most political boundaries. Other dyed in the wool sociolists such as Denis Skinner and George Galloway who were under no such constraints certainly came out firmly in favour of LEAVE and for years the late Tony Benn was fervently in favour of leaving even when it was a fringe viewpoint.

The absence of a major war in the EU area, whilst a great blessing is no proof that the existence of the EU prevented it. There has also been no major volcanic eruptions in the EU area since it was formed, so should we attribute that to the EU too? NATO, the UN, mutually assured destruction, and plain common sense are just as likely factors.

[EuphoricDysphoria]

Whatever their views beforehand, I think the fact we're freefalling into another economic crisis and haven't even left yet should be enough to give the sceptics pause. Cutting the nation's nose off to spite its face is (or should be) political and economic suicide. Regardless of the pros and cons or whether or not we should have joined in retrospect, the fact is we've been a member for a very long time now. The days are past where we could just pull out without dire consequences and pretend we were never involved. We've never been in with both feet and accepte the Euro, for example but I think that's given people an entirely false sense of security about how enmeshed we are with the EU trade block.

Plus, Brexit (if it actually goes through) will put us in a very weak position for trade deals. We also won't have the international clout to fight off TTIP, a trade deal that frankly terrifies me, given the consequences there have been elsewhere. We might be an affluent country but we don't actually manufacture anything, industry has nosedived u Nader the Tory government of spice who scorn actual industry in favour of city trading. When the bankers have sold us down the river though, we should have actual industry to fall back on. We're a colonial nation in name only these days and it disturbs me greatly to hear people talk about the British Empire or the crusades like they wer glory days. They weren't. We were Isis back then - conquering places and forcing Christianity on them - and many countries are still paying the price.

Anyway, before I go off on a tangent I'd better get back to work!

[Suiko]

Just to jump on the trade deals angle, there are 11 countries lined up to make fresh agreements with us (UK) in the wake of Brexit.

US, Iceland, China, India... Full list here .

Also while its true that the pound has been dropping, it's been stabilising off and on since the decision, and the fact that the euro now goes a bit further here had made spending more popular with people overseas. Because I can't remember which official spending name it is, I'm struggling to find a source - but it is true.

Plus China is still happy to buy the struggling steelworks that was going to go under.

A d the stockmarkets have relaxed a little but after the initial panic, see?

I don't think anyone campaigning for Brexit thought that the ride would be smooth - it's changing something that the world has taken for granted for decades. But sometimes you have to take a chance in order to make things better. The EU has become something that I,  and the majority of other Brits, don't want to be a part of. It's looking more and more like a world government every day. That isn't the noble intention that it started off with.

[Polymorph]

The fall in the pound was forecast long before the referendum by the IMF and other financial bodies whether we remained or left, a fact that the doom merchants either ignore or are ignorant of. This article dates back to December 2015, before the date of the referendum was even set. Other similar reports can easily be found from 2014.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12065157/Pound-is-most-overvalued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html

Of course now both sides will seize on any ensuing good news or bad and claim it backs up their viewpoint and ignore any other possible explanation. Events with considerable impact on European economy such as the Italian bank crisis, the failed Turkish coup and Erdogan's response and the ever present security problem will be disregarded.

While quick to point out the downgrading of the UK's economic growth forecast, the doom-mongers fail to mention that it is still higher than Germany or France's forecast.

[EuphoricDysphoria]

I agree that we will navigate our way out of the EU and that neither side should be able to claim everything supports their view. I also agree that the EU is far from perfect. I'm just a lot more scared of having my rights and freedoms decided by Theresa May. I'm petrified of what the government is doing to the NHS. By the end of this term there won't be an NHS, it's already being dismantled and sold off piecemeal. With the Tories running about completely unchecked, we'll head into a new Victorian age. That's what they want; land owners and serfs, fatcat bosses and workers with the fewest rights and lay they can get away with. That's why they don't care that my generation will never own a home. They don't want us to. It's nothing less than feudalism by the back door. That's why I'm in the remain camp and i like to think it's a significant reason why Corbyn is too.

[Polymorph]

An internal report from the IMF paints a damning picture of incompetence, corruption and downright stupid decisions made on political grounds rather than economic good sense made by pro EU elements within the organisation. The full article is here...

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/markets/imf-admits-disastrous-love-affair-with-the-euro-apologises-for-the-immolation-of-greece/ar-BBv0jOf?li=AA54rU&ocid=spartandhp

Here are some of the highlights of the report...

The report by the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) goes above the head of the managing director, Christine Lagarde. It answers solely to the board of executive directors, and those from Asia and Latin America are clearly incensed at the way EU insiders used the Fund to rescue their own rich currency union and banking system.

In an astonishing admission, the report said its own investigators were unable to obtain key records or penetrate the activities of secretive "ad-hoc task forces". Mrs Lagarde herself is not accused of obstruction.

“Many documents were prepared outside the regular established channels; written documentation on some sensitive matters could not be located. The IEO in some instances has not been able to determine who made certain decisions or what information was available, nor has it been able to assess the relative roles of management and staff," it said.

The report said the whole approach to the eurozone was characterised by “groupthink” and intellectual capture. They had no fall-back plans on how to tackle a systemic crisis in the eurozone – or how to deal with the politics of a multinational currency union – because they had ruled out any possibility that it could happen.

“Before the launch of the euro, the IMF’s public statements tended to emphasize the advantages of the common currency, “ it said. Some staff members warned that the design of the euro was fundamentally flawed but they were overruled.

“After a heated internal debate, the view supportive of what was perceived to be Europe’s political project ultimately prevailed,” it said.

At root was a failure to grasp the elemental point that currency unions with no treasury or political union to back them up are inherently vulnerable to debt crises. States facing a shock no longer have sovereign tools to defend themselves. Devaluation risk is switched into bankruptcy risk.

“In a monetary union, the basics of debt dynamics change as countries forgo monetary policy and exchange rate adjustment tools,” said the report. This would be amplified by a “vicious feedback between banks and sovereigns”, each taking the other down. That the IMF failed to anticipate any of this was a serious scientific and professional failure.

In Greece, the IMF violated its own cardinal rule by signing off on a bail-out in 2010 even though it could offer no assurance that the package would bring the country’s debts under control or clear the way for recovery, and many suspected from the start that it was doomed.

The strategy relied on forlorn hopes that the "confidence fairy" would lift Greece out of this policy-induced nose-dive. “Highly optimistic” plans to raise $50bn from privatisation sales came to little. Some assets did not even have clear legal ownership. The chronic “lack of realism” lasted until late 2011. By then the damage was done.

The injustice is that the cost of the bail-outs was switched to ordinary Greek citizens  – the least able to support the burden  – and it was never acknowledged that the true motive of EU-IMF Troika policy was to protect monetary union. Indeed, the Greeks were repeatedly blamed for failures that stemmed from the policy itself. This unfairness – the root of so much bitterness in Greece – is finally recognised in the report.

[gaggedLouise]

*nods at Polymorph* Yeah, it's a string of sad examples of how political and economic motives got mixed up right from the start. It's been obvious for a long time that the IMF and the EU were kicking the can down the road with respect to Greece (and well, Spain and Portugal too) and the constant saga of near-defaults and bailouts. And it started well before 2010, of course. The euro currency was based on political motives, not economic good sense, and it was well-known to many people both in Brussels and all around Europe that Greece was a financially weak country and most likely cooking the books when they were urged to stretch up a bit to show that they could fit into the supposedly solid euro zone. Putting Greece outside of the shared currency was unthinkable for reasons of political prestige - it would have been a humiliation both to the EU bigwigs and to the Greek cabinets at the time -  and treating the euro as a voluntary step, not a formal obligation for any state that "fit the bill" was out of the question too (the UK and Denmark have formal exemptions, Sweden has an unofficial de facto exemption from joining but everyone else is suppposed to join once their economies are strong enough).

Lots of ordinary people have been clear about these weaknesses and this double-thinking, but many governments and major political parties are still in denial about it and unable to admit it clearly, a big portion of the media too. Picking a fight with the ECB, the banks and the top tiers of the EU, even a verbal fight, is simply seen as too costly and too contrarian.  ::)

If the EU wants to survive as more than a free-trade and communications block, I don't see how they can do it in the long run without admitting some kind of "two-speed integration", because there's been very little broad support from ordinary people (citizens, you know) for the idea of a super-EU (a US of Europe) or a rigid system with the top priority of keeping the euro in good shape all over the continent - but admitting anything like that (selective integration and a better stake in the whole project for normal citizens and local communities) has been a red flag for many of the eurocrats for a long time. Ironically, two-speed integration was precisely what Cameron was asking for from his EU brothers, and the reason he called the referendum, but the response from the continent was displeased to say the least.   :-X