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Russia/Ukraine discussion (split from News thread)

Started by Tolvo, November 25, 2018, 04:13:39 PM

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Tolvo

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46338671

So hey Ukraine and Russia may be going to full blown war and the EU and NATO may intervene.

gaggedLouise

Quote from: Tolvo on November 25, 2018, 04:13:39 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46338671

So hey Ukraine and Russia may be going to full blown war and the EU and NATO may intervene.


Russia and the EU will probably try to contain it and avoid a full-scale flare-up - I think so far there's just one reported sailor casualty - but it sounds like a sticky incident all the same. Hope Trump stays away from it. :)

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Tolvo

I just wonder if Russia or Ukraine will go along with that.

gaggedLouise

Quote from: Tolvo on November 25, 2018, 04:20:14 PM
I just wonder if Russia or Ukraine will go along with that.

I don't think Russia wants a major upgrade of the Ukraine conflict into a wider war for now. And Ukraine will be heading for elections next year, while the country is still almost bankrupt - if they have any brains they don't want a big war with Russia either. Nor does the rest of Europe.

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I think they are just doing it to get attention; like teenagers acting out!

Nachtmahr

Quote from: gaggedLouise on November 25, 2018, 04:24:32 PM
I don't think Russia wants a major upgrade of the Ukraine conflict into a wider war for now. And Ukraine will be heading for elections next year, while the country is still almost bankrupt - if they have any brains they don't want a big war with Russia either. Nor does the rest of Europe.

I have wonder whether any of us would need to worry about a post-war economy if it comes to that.

Ironically, I've just started playing Fallout 4 again a couple of days ago.

This Reddit thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/a0bn37/russia_fires_on_and_seizes_ukraine_ships/ Seems like a good source for updates on this story. The top poster seems to be doing a great job keeping up with it.

No matter whether or not this incident is resolved peacefully, I think it's safe to say that the conflict has escalated.
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The Lovely Tsaritsa

Quote from: gaggedLouise on November 25, 2018, 04:24:32 PM
I don't think Russia wants a major upgrade of the Ukraine conflict into a wider war for now. And Ukraine will be heading for elections next year, while the country is still almost bankrupt - if they have any brains they don't want a big war with Russia either. Nor does the rest of Europe.

UN and EU, they please need staying out, of this.

Lustful Bride

Quote from: The Lovely Tsarina on November 25, 2018, 04:30:46 PM
UN and EU, they please need staying out, of this.

Actually this falls within the UN's jurisdiction I feel. Its the UN's job to keep conflicts from escalating.

Tolvo

They might get dragged in, and both Russia and Ukraine seem incredibly pissed about this incident. Also thanks Nacht I know people living around the incident who were telling me some things they were seeing on the news but had no real articles to link on that stuff to confirm anything happening.

Icelandic

Quote from: Lustful Bride on November 25, 2018, 04:33:05 PM
Actually this falls within the UN's jurisdiction I feel. Its the UN's job to keep conflicts from escalating.

I'm not going to speak for Tsarina, but I would be worried about even the UN being involved with it. If they act more as a 'containment force' against Russia, then that's not gunna do anything but make the situation worse.

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Lustful Bride

Quote from: Icelandic on November 25, 2018, 04:35:05 PM
I'm not going to speak for Tsarina, but I would be worried about even the UN being involved with it. If they act more as a 'containment force' against Russia, then that's not gunna do anything but make the situation worse.

That's a fair point.

The Lovely Tsaritsa

Quote from: Lustful Bride on November 25, 2018, 04:33:05 PM
Actually this falls within the UN's jurisdiction I feel. Its the UN's job to keep conflicts from escalating.

I think things get very much worse with UN involved though.

Nachtmahr

Quote from: Icelandic on November 25, 2018, 04:35:05 PM
I'm not going to speak for Tsarina, but I would be worried about even the UN being involved with it. If they act more as a 'containment force' against Russia, then that's not gunna do anything but make the situation worse.

If this was indeed an illegal or aggressive move by the Ukrainians, as the Russian side of this debacle suggests, then obviously it won't do any good to bring the hammer down on Russia for taking action. But it's extremely touchy at the moment.
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Tolvo

It's basically a problem that the UN is either gonna not do enough or do too much, and already tensions between them and Russia is really high. I like the idea of the UN but they really suck at actually enforcing things and Russia is really too powerful to be forced to do anything easily regarding international laws. As well Russia can actually argue that Ukraine was the aggressor in this specific incidence.

Icelandic


Quote from: Lustful Bride on November 25, 2018, 04:35:37 PM
That's a fair point.

Honestly. I think it's just best to abandon Ukraine. The status quo was that Ukraine was softly in Russia's camp before we instigated a coup and now we are acting like NATO's reach landing right on Russia's doorstep is not aggressive.

Ukraine is not worth a NATO-Russia war.




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And, US will not lift finger for helping UN in Ukraine, I promise.

Icelandic

Quote from: Tolvo on November 25, 2018, 04:38:47 PM
It's basically a problem that the UN is either gonna not do enough or do too much, and already tensions between them and Russia is really high. I like the idea of the UN but they really suck at actually enforcing things and Russia is really too powerful to be forced to do anything easily regarding international laws. As well Russia can actually argue that Ukraine was the aggressor in this specific incidence.

Basically, I would just not want to see ANY outsider military forces in or over Ukraine. That includes NATO, the US and even the UN. It's far too risky for that kind of posturing, and for so little reward.

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Nachtmahr

Quote from: Icelandic on November 25, 2018, 04:44:11 PM
Basically, I would just not want to see ANY outsider military forces in or over Ukraine. That includes NATO, the US and even the UN. It's far too risky for that kind of posturing, and for so little reward.

On the other hand, we can't just let Russia expand in whatever direction they want because each individual annexation isn't a big deal in and of itself.
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Tolvo

Yeah. Ukraine deserves their own sovereignty. Russia is trying to take everything they can wherever and have no right to do so.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/25/us-mexico-border-crossing-closes-migrants

Also in other news things at the border aren't looking so good, and the US is now firing tear gas grenades at them, including at children. So we are very firmly in the "Evil Bastards" camp at this point.

Lustful Bride

Quote from: Tolvo on November 25, 2018, 04:49:40 PM
Yeah. Ukraine deserves their own sovereignty. Russia is trying to take everything they can wherever and have no right to do so.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/25/us-mexico-border-crossing-closes-migrants

Also in other news things at the border aren't looking so good, and the US is now firing tear gas grenades at them, including at children. So we are very firmly in the "Evil Bastards" camp at this point.

I despise the current administration so much. The next elections cant get here soon enough.

Tolvo

Yeah it is one of those things of, "They deserve their own government. Their current government is run by idiot bastards though." I'm not sure who I'd even want in power there, they have a lot of fascists that are there, but there aren't any other real good options. Like there are rebel groups with somewhat better politics, but they're rebel groups and that'd be asking for even more bloody war and would make them weaker for Russia.

Lustful Bride

Quote from: Tolvo on November 25, 2018, 04:53:52 PM
Yeah it is one of those things of, "They deserve their own government. Their current government is run by idiot bastards though." I'm not sure who I'd even want in power there, they have a lot of fascists that are there, but there aren't any other real good options. Like there are rebel groups with somewhat better politics, but they're rebel groups and that'd be asking for even more bloody war and would make them weaker for Russia.

I actually meant the US government :P  I don't know enough about the Ukraine to judge its government.

It doesn't matter how many people are trying to climb the US/Mexico border fence, this entire thing is being handled in the worse way and brings yet more shame to us.

The Lovely Tsaritsa

Quote from: Tolvo on November 25, 2018, 04:49:40 PM
Yeah. Ukraine deserves their own sovereignty. Russia is trying to take everything they can wherever and have no right to do so.

All I will say, many in Ukraine, especially Eastern regions, would prefer annexation by Russia. They aren’t given peaceful choice, for doing this, no Brexit referendum for them. I wish, this was possible.

Western media also doesn’t show all sides, of what happens. What happens here, it’s very complicated. Not only “Russia is bad”.

I stop posting on this now, I think. I don’t wish, for arguing with friends.

Tolvo

I don't read or just watch Western media, I try to get media from all over when it is possible and do know people living around the world, including in and around Ukraine and Russia. I'd still say Russia is bad but in the same way the USA, or the UK, or Israel, or most governments I find to be bad.

Icelandic

Quote from: Nachtmahr on November 25, 2018, 04:47:54 PM
On the other hand, we can't just let Russia expand in whatever direction they want because each individual annexation isn't a big deal in and of itself.

I think it would be best to set a hard limit on how far east NATO can expand. I think no former Soviet states is fair for the sake of keeping the peace.

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gaggedLouise

Breakout of the Russia/Ukraine/UN/NATO discussion to its own thread, perhaps? Whatever direction/s the crisis is going to take next, Russia and Ukraine will clearly be in the news for some time again.

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Icelandic

Quote from: gaggedLouise on November 25, 2018, 05:34:42 PM
Breakout of the Russia/Ukraine/UN/NATO discussion to its own thread, perhaps? Whatever direction/s the crisis is going to take next, Russia and Ukraine will clearly be in the news for some time again.

That would be a good idea.

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Mechelle

Quote from: Icelandic on November 25, 2018, 05:32:32 PM
I think it would be best to set a hard limit on how far east NATO can expand. I think no former Soviet states is fair for the sake of keeping the peace.

We already have Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in NATO.  While that might be a provocation to Russia, from a British perspective, Russia has generally been accepted by Western governments to have killed an innocent woman in Salisbury, and, with much less general acceptance, to have  interfered in our Brexit debate by funding prominent Brexit supporters to separate us from our allies, so I don't think Russia would restrict themselves to a sphere of influence, even if they were appeased.  I am sure you could make similar criticisms of the USA and UK, of course.

Agree that the Russia-Ukraine  situation is worth its own thread.

Tolvo

I already messaged Blythe about the thread split though I dunno if Blythe has read it yet or is busy or maybe logged off after I sent it.

Icelandic

Quote from: Mechelle on November 25, 2018, 05:56:50 PM
We already have Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in NATO.  While that might be a provocation to Russia, from a British perspective, Russia has generally been accepted by Western governments to have killed an innocent woman in Salisbury, and, with much less general acceptance, to have  interfered in our Brexit debate by funding prominent Brexit supporters to separate us from our allies, so I don't think Russia would restrict themselves to a sphere of influence, even if they were appeased.  I am sure you could make similar criticisms of the USA and UK, of course.

Agree that the Russia-Ukraine  situation is worth its own thread.

Everything that you mentioned happened only after the Ukrainian coup. We can't expect that retaliation by the Russians would not follow.

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Blythe

Will get a thread split in a bit for the Russia/Ukraine/UN/NATO discussion--sorry for the wait. Was busy with some other stuff, will get to this now.

Blythe

Okay, I think that's everything--y'all give me a poke if I missed any posts for this. Should now be a split thread. I will leave a redirect link in the News thread in a moment.

gaggedLouise

Thanks for the speedy response Blythe, could you move the posts about Elon Musk and his Mars migration back to the News thread too? :)

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Nachtmahr

Quote from: Mechelle on November 25, 2018, 05:56:50 PM
We already have Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in NATO.  While that might be a provocation to Russia, from a British perspective, Russia has generally been accepted by Western governments to have killed an innocent woman in Salisbury, and, with much less general acceptance, to have  interfered in our Brexit debate by funding prominent Brexit supporters to separate us from our allies, so I don't think Russia would restrict themselves to a sphere of influence, even if they were appeased.  I am sure you could make similar criticisms of the USA and UK, of course.

Agree that the Russia-Ukraine  situation is worth its own thread.

I think it's more than safe to say that even if we went as far as to abolish the unwieldy beast that is NATO, Putin's Russia wouldn't stop its foreign interference campaigns. They'd still be interested in an overall more pro-Russia world. If anything, it might lead to some even more bold expansionism. In its current state, I see no path toward warmer relations.
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Icelandic

Quote from: Nachtmahr on November 25, 2018, 06:39:08 PM
I think it's more than safe to say that even if we went as far as to abolish the unwieldy beast that is NATO, Putin's Russia wouldn't stop its foreign interference campaigns. They'd still be interested in an overall more pro-Russia world. If anything, it might lead to some even more bold expansionism. In its current state, I see no path toward warmer relations.

I can't even say that Russia is pro expansionism. Since the end of the cold war, NATO has inched closer and closer to their doorstep, and with the coup in Ukraine being the final instigation, only then has interference campaigns become an issue.

If another power was trying to do that to the US, you can bet yourself that the US would do whatever it could to keep itself from being surrounded.

The cold war is supposed to be over, and yet the west couldn't stop seeing Russia as the enemy.

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Skynet

Quote from: Icelandic on November 25, 2018, 06:44:26 PM
I can't even say that Russia is pro expansionism. Since the end of the cold war, NATO has inched closer and closer to their doorstep, and with the coup in Ukraine being the final instigation, only then has interference campaigns become an issue.

If another power was trying to do that to the US, you can bet yourself that the US would do whatever it could to keep itself from being surrounded.

The cold war is supposed to be over, and yet the west couldn't stop seeing Russia as the enemy.

Given that the Russian government attempted to invade Georgia around 2008, it's kind of hard to sell the Putin administration as not being expansionist when it's troops tried to occupy the territories of several nations within recent memory.

The bolded is a what about logical fallacy. Even if say, China tried to invade Mexico, it would still be morally wrong for the US to start carving out Mexican territory as new 51st States and so on unless the majority populace explicitly wanted to become part of the US. And even then that'd be tricky territory on account of many factors.

Icelandic

Quote from: Skynet on November 25, 2018, 07:17:39 PM
Given that the Russian government attempted to invade Georgia around 2008, it's kind of hard to sell the Putin administration as not being expansionist when it's troops tried to occupy the territories of several nations within recent memory.

The bolded is a what about logical fallacy. Even if say, China tried to invade Mexico, it would still be morally wrong for the US to start carving out Mexican territory as new 51st States and so on unless the majority populace explicitly wanted to become part of the US. And even then that'd be tricky territory on account of many factors.

Georgia was set to become a NATO member shortly before that war. The war was in large part a response to the attempted encirclement.

It's not a whataboutism, as the US has not had to deal with a similar situation as Russia is dealing with now. And that's my point. It's about seeing a different perspective.
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Skynet

I understand the perspective, I just don't agree with it. Advanced and powerful empires and pseudo-empires justify self-defense all the time when conquering territory, even if the threat is minimal or exaggerated. It's a song as old as time and is rarely if ever done with the invaded people's best interests at heart.

I do not know to what extent the majority of Georgians wanted to join NATO, but it's a bad precedent to let global superpowers go "well we should take over country X b/c we don't want them to voluntarily join a rival group." By that logic the United States should invade Iran for being aligned with anti-American groups; or by that logic North Korea should invade Cuba because a fellow "socialist" country dared to build an embassy with a Western capitalist superpower.

The Lovely Tsaritsa

Quote from: Icelandic on November 25, 2018, 07:32:18 PM
Georgia was set to become a NATO member shortly before that war. The war was in large part a response to the attempted encirclement.

It's not a whataboutism, as the US has not had to deal with a similar situation as Russia is dealing with now. And that's my point. It's about seeing a different perspective.

Abkhazia and Ossetia, parts of Georgia, they wanted being part of Russia. One reason for war, since Georgia doesn’t allow for this. Much like Luhansk, and Donetsk in Donbass, who want joining Russia from Ukraine.

midnightblack

Quote from: Tolvo on November 25, 2018, 04:13:39 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46338671

So hey Ukraine and Russia may be going to full blown war and the EU and NATO may intervene.

Not wanting to sound dismissive about the matter, but I believe it's fairly reasonable to assume that actually all the four parties you mentioned have much more important issues to deal with than three boats floating in a pond in the middle of nowhere (and the EU isn't a military alliance anyway; it has no reason to get militarily involved in a conflict outside of its borders). I'd argue that the civilized world doesn't care all that much about Ukraine to begin with, as they've played a double game for the past 30 years (flirting with both East and West) that has endeared them to no one. Aside from a few crackpots, I'd also assume that no one in Russia really wants to have it physically occupied in its entirety, and would rather keep it (ideally) as a poor puppet state and buffer zone between Russia and the West. Remember that aside of the usual diplomatic talk (the civilized world claiming that such things are unacceptable and Russia complaining that they are persecuted by the rest of humanity), together with more or less symbolic sanctions, there wasn't much of a violent reaction when Russia simply barged in and annexed Crimea, or when a civilian plane was shot down above Eastern Ukraine. These matters will eventually get sorted out in court, and the present situation will likely sort itself out without further escalation.
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Tolvo

Uh, Ukraine is a part of the civilized world, that is an incredibly dismissive statement. NATO has stated explicitly about the event, while the EU wants to try to deescalate. Russia and Ukraine are both directly involved already, with Ukraine going into a vote on Monday to determine if they will declare war or not, after they have already stated what Russia did was an act of war while Russia claims Ukraine was the aggressor. If war is declared it will be another matter entirely and other nations will likely get brought in whether they want to or not. Now the USA probably won't get directly involved, because they are so far away and our government really doesn't have much interest there. Other countries are another matter.

midnightblack

The sad truth is that the civilized world is wearing a bit thin these days. Ukraine remains a state gnawed at by rampant corruption, with a rather unreliable and untrustworthy reputation. This is a hole dug for roughly three decades of external politics handled in ambivalent, indecisive and at times deceitful ways. The reason why it remained a bit of a no man's land is due to the fact that it never really figured out what it wanted and then committed to it. Granted, after losing Crimea steps have been made, at least at a nominal level, to adhere to European standards and values, but I don't think anyone holds any real expectations for the near future. Just a couple of years ago they had to be smacked around a bit in order to be reminded that ethnic minorities are actually human beings that have the same rights as the native Ukrainians, but they still couldn't really be bothered about the issue. So I hope you understand where my thoughts are coming from.

In any case, all that I wanted to say was that alarmist statements like "full blown war" are most likely out of the question. Large scale armed conflicts are expensive, counterproductive and downright retarded, and fortunately for us there are still too few idiots in charge of the relevant buttons to actually lead to something like that. Yes, Russia likes to act like an annoying, snotty brat, but they are clever enough to know which lines can be pushed and which can't be crossed. My country is a part of NATO and it gets its airspace and waters harassed on an almost daily basis by the Russian military (leading even to funny incidents like the espionage vessel that sunk after colliding with a cargo ferrying ship  ::) ), and yet you don't see glorious barrages of rockets painting the sky crimson. Nobody really cares that much about the glorified pond known as the Azov Sea, so I have full confidence that the incident will eventually be sorted at the negotiations table.
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Tolvo

I mean, what you just said is true of the USA as well as the UK and other Western countries.

Also why is it out of the question to worry that a country that said they were attacked in an act of war that will be voting today on whether they will declare war might go to war? They might not, but why is it out of the question to worry based on all that we know of the events and these governments and what they said that they might go to war?

Also please don't use slurs.

midnightblack

*cargo ferrying sheep* in the previous message <.<

Ukraine will never declare war on Russia because in a real conflict they'd be dead in a matter of minutes. Military they just don't match in any shape or form. At the same time, Russia doesn't really have anything to gain from expanding too much westward. Crimea offers a nice strategic position at the Black Sea from where they can threaten to rain hell down over NATO countries who threaten their sovereignty (but they will never actually do anything), and now they basically claim that the Azov Sea belongs to them alone, which from a legal point is wrong but they'll have their way since Ukraine can't really defend itself and no one can be bothered to step in for them for no real reason. I think it's however quite unlikely that they will go much further than that, since (as previously stated) a poor and easily controlled puppet state buffering Russia from NATO is far more meaningful to them them than all the headaches of handling the territory and sharing such a large border with NATO. Plus the international uproar and such, it simply wouldn't be worth it.

I apologize if anything I said has offended you, but as these discussions are political and not personal (they are never about ordinary people like you and me, but rather about political decisions and the more or less apt representatives that carry them out) I feel it's alright to call things for what they are.
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Tolvo

Just don't expect me to really find your words have much weight when you seem so dismissive of other people's views and worries while claiming to know the future, and criticize countries for their treatment of minorities when many in the West do the same things as you also use a slur for a minority group.

midnightblack

I genuinely have no idea how you arrived at those conclusions about my statements. Going to war isn't a "hey, let's do this" thing, at least not in the real world, and while I do find such fears rather alarmist and immature in regard to the incident discussed here, I never meant to be dismissive about them. It's just that they are rather ridiculous, if I am allowed to entertain that opinion, and I tried to offer some arguments to support that. I never claimed to know the future, I just happen to be living right next to Ukraine and the areas that have been under tension since Crimea got annexed. Over the last years I've been following to some extent the evolution of the regional affairs and the thoughts experts have about them. So I don't speak out of my bum and I tend to lean on the balanced side of views based on immediate realities. I think that full blown war can't be a serious concern right now, but you are more than free to hold a different opinion if you find my arguments lacking.

I also don't like to speak in broad terms about vaguely defined matters, so while I don't really understand what you mean by "many in the West do the same", I know exactly what happened with the issue I brought in the discussion. It was simply meant as a recent example of ill-behavior on Ukraine's part that doesn't really stand up to their ambitions for a modern civilized state, and I could supply information on the topic, if you're interested, but I think that's a different subject.

I absolutely have no clue where and how I used a slur for a minority group. Is the word "ethnic" a slur?
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Tolvo

Saying "They will definitely go to war" I would agree is alarmist, but I'm not saying they will 100% go to war. I am saying that I think it is a possibility we should consider and that it is a worrying idea. You say you don't want to be dismissive but then find people who consider that possibility to be considering something ridiculous and immature and alarmist is dismissive itself, on top of using the phrase Civilized World, claiming Ukraine is not civilized compared to other nations specifically the EU which does quite a lot of the same things which varies by country. Personally I don't see any problems with linking stuff about the history of these conflicts around the regions since it would relate to a possible Ukraine and Russia war. I do try to be balanced and read what I can based on the realities of what we know and perceived realities while keeping a level of healthy skepticism since this is not something where we can just trust everything everyone claims happened. Especially since many of them contradict each other.

Retard is a slur and has been recognized as one for quite a while. I understand not knowing that if you don't live more to the West or in the USA or Canada. Especially if English isn't your first language. Especially since it was still used by a lot of people into the 2000's and is still used regularly casually despite being a slur, but it very much is one.

midnightblack

What I said was

QuoteLarge scale armed conflicts are expensive, counterproductive and downright retarded

I never used the word "retard" in regard to a nation, an ethnic group or a person, but in relation to the act of human beings killing each other for reasons that more often than not are actually quite stupid and petty. I stand by that opinion, and if you or anyone else is offended by it, I really don't think I'm the one at fault.

In regard to the wider discussion, there's a very evident and (I'd say) sadly increasing civilizational gap between Western and Central/Eastern Europe (the latter geographical distinction is a bit debatable), and the countries in my area (mine included) don't seem to be undergoing any real efforts to close it. But it's a very complex topic, I'm not the one to talk about it in detail, at this hour and on this topic, and there's certainly a touch of self-deprecating irony in my views, so I'd rather leave it at that.
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Tolvo

https://www.npr.org/2018/11/26/670746252/ukraine-considers-martial-law-after-russia-seizes-its-ships-near-crimea

So I guess maybe the USA does want to get involved? At least according to our members at the UN, but that seems pretty counter to the US position of wanting to mostly just sell weapons and especially Trump who doesn't like NATO or the UN.

HannibalBarca

Much like liberals joining the NRA en masse to affect their elections...why doesn't Russia just join NATO and be one big happy family?
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Icelandic

Quote from: HannibalBarca on November 27, 2018, 07:24:27 PM
Much like liberals joining the NRA en masse to affect their elections...why doesn't Russia just join NATO and be one big happy family?

The reason is that NATO still serves it's original purpose. It's an anti-Russian alliance, and I highly doubt Russia could ever be accepted into it even if they tried.

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Conundrum

Russia made informal overtures in 1989, 1991, and 1994 to join NATO.  In one incident they were practically laughed at and told they were the reason for NATO existing, all were harshly denied.

In 1954 the Soviet Union formally attempted to join NATO but after consideration was denied.

http://archives.nato.int/uploads/r/null/3/7/37267/RDC_54_215_BIL.pdf

Quote from: gaggedLouise on November 25, 2018, 04:24:32 PM
I don't think Russia wants a major upgrade of the Ukraine conflict into a wider war for now. And Ukraine will be heading for elections next year, while the country is still almost bankrupt - if they have any brains they don't want a big war with Russia either. Nor does the rest of Europe.

In Ukraine elections are suspended during martial law.  Martial law has been declared in areas of low government support.  The current bill signed will result in martial law for the next 60 days with an option to continue.

https://censor.net.ua/news/3098975/poroshenko_podpisal_ukaz_o_vvedenii_voennogo_polojeniya_v_ukraine_polnyyi_tekst
https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1067139998925770752


Part of this incident likely occurred in response to Ukrainian actions regarding Russian vessels.  As Ukraine does not recognize the 2014 Crimean Referendum they view the Sea of Azov around Crimea as legally Ukrainian water and therefore Russian vessels traversing those waters are viewed as doing so illegally.  As a result they have seized vessels under the Russian flag and sold them for entering what they claim to be their territorial waters.  Russia has responded by doing things such as blocking the Kerch Strait.  It was here that the Ukrainian vessels were seized after Russia claimed they violated Articles 19 and 21 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and attempted to pass through territorial Russian waters without proper notice.  This issue is compounded that even without recognizing the 2014 referendum Russia legally does own much the territorial waters in the Kerch Stait area and such a notice would be legally required.  At the same time Ukraine passed a bill that extended their claimed territorial waters 12 nautical miles.  I am not sure where this new border is at this time though.

https://www.unn.com.ua/ru/news/1762544-za-zakhid-do-portiv-okupovanogo-krimu-zatrimali-15-suden


I do not believe I have seen it mentioned here but there is evidence the shots exchanged were not warning shots with the Ukrainian vessel Berdyansk.

Spoiler: Click to Show/Hide




Berdyansk is the center vessel and in the first photo it's artillery shutter can be seen to be open.  In the second photo an impact site can be seen from a weapon.  The Gyurza-M should have noteworthy armor for a vessel of her class and the Russian AK630 close in defense system utilized on Rubin and Sorum class vessels does not fire singleshots as it is designed to fire almost 100 rounds per second.
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Tolvo

Ah yeah I did see some reports saying inspectors noticed there were a lot of holes in the hulls.


Icelandic

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/11/29/why-did-ukraine-impose-martial-law/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.0c32105a2465

Ukraine implemented martial law.

It's important to note that the indefinite martial law may have an effect on the country's elections happening soon. Their president, Poroshenko, has been sliding in the polls quite a bit and this could just be a move to keep him in power.

Less then a decade after the Western-backed coup and Ukraine is already a banana republic. Amazing.
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Tolvo

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/war-will-continue-as-long-as-ukraine-government-in-power-putin-1956541

So apparently at G20 Putin said that Russia was at war with Ukraine.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/poroshenko-80000-russian-troops-ukraine-181201164222788.html

Things might escalate soon. Especially after Russia getting involved in aiding Syria and entering NATO airspace when Israel started bombing Syria to kill Iranians there.

gaggedLouise

Quote from: Tolvo on December 01, 2018, 05:59:22 PM
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/war-will-continue-as-long-as-ukraine-government-in-power-putin-1956541

So apparently at G20 Putin said that Russia was at war with Ukraine.

I think he may have meant that the war between Ukraine and the two breakaway republics near the Russian border will continue. So far, ever since the conflict flared up almost five years ago, both Russia and Ukraine have studiously avoided ever saying that they are at war with the other country. Russia claims not to be a party to any war in Ukraine, they would tell us that it's only the two breakaway states that are fighting Kiev (never mind that these are really Russian puppet states) and Ukraine has never said they are at war with Russia. Indeed Ukraine avoids referring to the struggle with the rebels in the east as a war, too: officially they'll just say they are putting down disorder. The reason is, they don't want to give any credit to the other side by actually saying the rebels make up any kind of regular army fighting a war.

Quotehttps://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/poroshenko-80000-russian-troops-ukraine-181201164222788.html

Things might escalate soon. Especially after Russia getting involved in aiding Syria and entering NATO airspace when Israel started bombing Syria to kill Iranians there.

We'll see, but I doubt that Putin would really stage a full-scale invasion of Ukraine at this point.

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Tolvo

I wonder if even it could be a language thing.

I dunno it seems like he does want it, but he needs a good excuse that he just doesn't have yet.

gaggedLouise

Quote from: Tolvo on December 01, 2018, 08:33:30 PM
I wonder if even it could be a language thing.

I dunno it seems like he does want it, but he needs a good excuse that he just doesn't have yet.


The two breakaway states seem to have joined into a single one. But the funny thing is, even though Russia says it is not involved on the ground in any war in eastern Ukraine but makes no secret of supporting the rebels - still, Moscow has never recognized them (or their two constituent parts) as a state. It would have been easy peach to do so, but no.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya_(confederation)#International_recognition

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Tolvo

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/02/putin-refuses-to-release-ukrainian-sailors-and-ships

Apparently Putin was actually specifically saying Ukraine was at war with Russia, though it isn't an official declaration. As well he is changing the Russian story and admitting some serious things. And has so far said he is refusing to return the sailors in any capacity.

Ukraine also did ban military age Russian men from crossing the border.

https://www.npr.org/2018/11/30/672138169/amid-escalating-tension-ukraine-bans-russian-men-from-crossing-its-borders

https://www.france24.com/en/f24-interview/20181201-putin-refuses-talk-me-ukraines-poroshenko-tells-france-24

Ukraine's leader is alleging that Putin won't enter any talks with him or communicate with him.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/12/02/russia-tv-crew-spark-military-alert-suspicious-behaviour-uk/

There are even some UK tensions involved.

gaggedLouise

Quote from: Tolvo on December 02, 2018, 07:38:50 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/02/putin-refuses-to-release-ukrainian-sailors-and-ships

Apparently Putin was actually specifically saying Ukraine was at war with Russia, though it isn't an official declaration. As well he is changing the Russian story and admitting some serious things. And has so far said he is refusing to return the sailors in any capacity.

Ukraine also did ban military age Russian men from crossing the border.

https://www.npr.org/2018/11/30/672138169/amid-escalating-tension-ukraine-bans-russian-men-from-crossing-its-borders

Putin is very vague about it - if he *is* talking about war between Ukraine and Russia it is (in his description) a very low-level war. Mostly he's still just saying that Ukraine made deliberate provocations, which isn't the same as a true state of war. I'm not trying to defend Putin, but I think it's hard to know the fine print of what he said or meant here without having it in Russian and knowing Russian (which neither of us does).

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Tolvo

You technically don't know that. I have never said I don't know Russian. :P

Actually I wish I still talked to my one friend who is studying to become a professor of Russian and Ukrainian. Though he's pretty horrible about politics so maybe that's for the best.

The Lovely Tsaritsa

Quote from: gaggedLouise on December 02, 2018, 08:05:27 AM
Mostly he's still just saying that Ukraine made deliberate provocations, which isn't the same as a true state of war. I'm not trying to defend Putin, but I think it's hard to know the fine print of what he said or meant here without having it in Russian and knowing Russian (which neither of us does).

This is what he says, and means, on news here.

Tolvo

Ah alright so it is more of a language thing like I was wondering.

gaggedLouise

Quote from: The Lovely Tsarina on December 02, 2018, 08:17:38 AM
This is what he says, and means, on news here.

Oh yes, I forgot that you are here too. Thanks! So he is still talking about "provocations" but not saying outright that Russia and Ukraine are at war, in a military sense?

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Tolvo

Don't forget Tsarina, I think she feels people don't listen to her enough but I do value her input and she can explain a different perspective often. ^_^

gaggedLouise

Quote from: Tolvo on December 02, 2018, 08:26:31 AM
Don't forget Tsarina, I think she feels people don't listen to her enough but I do value her input and she can explain a different perspective often. ^_^

I know, she's a nice lady and knowledgeable about how people in Ukraine and Russia might feel about this.

I'm sometimes gleaning insights about this from Dasha too, though she has retired from this part of the forum.

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The Lovely Tsaritsa

War, is how Ukraine and Russia conflict is called here by politicians, and press often. In US everyone would say armed conflict, instead. Maybe it is significant, this time? But, I think press in West, is making big deal of nothing.

Tolvo

Ah alright. I do know there are other cultures and languages like that, which use war as a synonym for strife in general. Usually saying you are at war with something is a very extreme campaign against or active fight against something here.

gaggedLouise

Quote from: The Lovely Tsarina on December 02, 2018, 08:47:19 AM
War, is how Ukraine and Russia conflict is called here by politicians, and press often. In US everyone would say armed conflict, instead. Maybe it is significant, this time? But, I think press in West, is making big deal of nothing.

But is it called that way officially, a war between Moscow and Kiev? Open, MILITARY war. Not just a low-level war between Kiev and Novorossiya (ex-Donetsk and Lugansk)? Or just loosely by the media and some politicians, to drum up the talk and score political points?

It is fine print sometimes, yes. During the winter war in 1939-40, when Finland was attacked by the Soviet Union, Sweden was not strictly speaking a part in the war, but we were heavily involved, the army leased equipment and donated food supplies and munitions to the Finnish army and several thousand Swedish soldiers volunteered on the front for Finland in a "Swedish brigade". We went as far as we could short of actually declaring war on the USSR ourselves. It was a very deliberate tightrope walk.

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The Lovely Tsaritsa

War in Donbas, officially, is “civil war”. There is no official war, yet, between Kyiv and Moscow. Separatists in Donbas, they get unofficial help, from Russian military. But, no open, military war, like you say.


gaggedLouise

Quote from: The Lovely Tsarina on December 02, 2018, 09:08:20 AM
War in Donbas, officially, is “civil war”. There is no official war, yet, between Kyiv and Moscow. Separatists in Donbas, they get unofficial help, from Russian military. But, no open, military war, like you say.

Spasibo! :)

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Tolvo

https://www.unian.info/war/10360104-ukraine-reports-15-enemy-attacks-in-donbas-over-past-24-hours.html

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukrinform-russia-backed-separatists-launched-six-attacks-on-ukrainian-troops-in-donbas.html

It looks like some things between the Separatists and Ukraine's army are heating up. Though I don't know about the validity of these sources, they are local Ukrainian but some of the terms seem very loaded. Like Russian Led attacks, Russian Backed maybe. But the Russians aren't invading yet as far as I've seen.

https://www.unian.info/war/10360371-osce-smm-s-uav-spots-heavy-weapons-in-non-government-controlled-areas-of-donbas.html

This as well. I think some things are heating up at least between the Separatists and Ukraine's government, but also these do seem to be reports with a bias so take the specifics with a grain of salt. Using terms like Occupiers and Russian Led, as well that it seems like some of the local Ukrainian reports can't agree on the number of attacks.

The Lovely Tsaritsa

Separatists define my use Russian weapons, equipment. They get support, a little, from Russian soldiers unofficial. But, most Separatists, they are from Eastern Ukraine.

Tolvo

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/russia-60-days-comply-nuclear-treaty-181204192354729.html

So the USA is trying to put more force on Russia. Though Trump still plans to pull out of the treaty anyway so he can build up the US nuclear arsenal and use it to control things in Europe, according to him.

Allegedly Ukrainian forces in unmarked tanks and vehicles have entered Donetsk, and that shelling has started on rebels. But I'm not finding any good English sources on it. And I don't know the accuracy levels of the local news, as well as who is telling the truth since the rebels, Russia, Ukraine, none of them can really be well trusted.


The Lovely Tsaritsa

Ukraine tanks and artillery, they’re in Donbas for a few years, now. My mother’s old home, in Sieverodonetsk, it was in middle of Separatist fight. :P Maybe news means more tanks? But, full war between Ukraine army and Separatists, it could start tomorrow. Soldiers and weapons, all are there, in numbers. They only need orders, to start.

Both news don’t tell full truth. But, I believe Russian news, more than Ukraine. Kyiv wants impressing West, and needs help. Moscow cares less, they don’t have as many reasons, for lies. ::)

gaggedLouise

Quote from: The Lovely Tsarina on December 06, 2018, 07:44:53 AM
Ukraine tanks and artillery, they’re in Donbas for a few years, now. My mother’s old home, in Sieverodonetsk, it was in middle of Separatist fight. :P Maybe news means more tanks? But, full war between Ukraine army and Separatists, it could start tomorrow. Soldiers and weapons, all are there, in numbers. They only need orders, to start.

Both news don’t tell full truth. But, I believe Russian news, more than Ukraine. Kyiv wants impressing West, and needs help. Moscow cares less, they don’t have as many reasons, for lies. ::)

If there was a more full-on war, do you think Russia would join in on the síde of the separatists?

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The Lovely Tsaritsa

Oh yes, definitely. I read some reports, from New York Times I think, that Separatists are really mostly Russian soldiers, pretending to be Ukraine. That isn’t true, I think most of Separatists are from Eastern Ukraine, not Russia. But, they get training, from good Russian soldiers, and supplies. Not just weapons, but transports and food, things like such.

But, if things move past ugly little fighting, that happens already past few years? Luhansk and Donetsk, they would get full support from Russian army, I think. This would be war, that lasts only few days, Ukraine isn’t match in that fight.

This makes me sad, I believe Luhansk and Donetsk, they really just want being part of Russia. Most people living there do, anyway. I love my Ukraine, but Kyiv treats east territories poorly. I wish that they could have their own Brexit vote, a legitimate one with no government tricks, either from Moscow or Kyiv. That doesn’t happen though, I think people will die instead, in stupid little war.  :'(

Tolvo

People are saying a battle is about to begin but I again can't find any good news on this. Recently people have passed around an image of the Ukrainian president posing with someone wearing an SS pin, but I see it going back to Russia Today reporting it and no actual Ukrainian sources. Now some Ukraine sources are saying Russian tanks are moving in Crimea and amassing based on some videos that show tanks moving(But I don't know when and where those videos are even from you just see they're on a bridge) and you can't see the markings, which others were saying Ukraine is moving unmarked tanks and vehicles to do a false flag attacks. If anyone can find any good sources do let me know. So far it seems like people are passing around a ton of unverified things.