War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

Started by Beorning, January 21, 2022, 07:27:30 PM

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elone

Quote from: Vekseid on January 27, 2022, 07:59:47 PM

You may not, personally, have much care for the mass atrocities Russia committed. Nonetheless I ask that you give proper respect for those of our members who lived under or in memory of that shadow.

They are terrified.

They have every right to be.

I believe that many atrocities and genocides and human rights violations in recent memory seem to have been forgotten by those that were not effected. The Armenian's by the Turks, the Ukrainian's starvation by Stalin, Pol Pot in Cambodia, Jews and others in Germany, the Israel Palestinian conflict, aparthied in South Africa, others throughout Africa, Central and South America and more going on to this day. Nevertheless, I don't believe that discussion should be cut off because people suffered. If anything, more discussion is needed so that we will never forget what was done to people. I hope that is not the case here. It seems that disrespect is not the issue, information is.
In the end, all we have left are memories.

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Oniya

Well, this is interesting.

Short version:  A 'cyber-activist' group claims to have hacked into the rail system with the intent of disrupting Russian troop movements from Belarus to Ukraine.

Didn't have that on my Bingo card.

Lukashenko has addressed the security leaks by telling his top officials to go back to pen and paper. 
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And in that endeavor, laziness will not do." ~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~Don't think we're never gonna win this war
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Laughing Hyena

Quote from: Oniya on February 01, 2022, 12:56:47 AM
Well, this is interesting.

Short version:  A 'cyber-activist' group claims to have hacked into the rail system with the intent of disrupting Russian troop movements from Belarus to Ukraine.

Didn't have that on my Bingo card.

Lukashenko has addressed the security leaks by telling his top officials to go back to pen and paper.

First thing to come into my head was Anonymous due to being morr familiar but it's not them but the Cyberpartisitans. Never heard of them to be honest.

Oniya

Quote from: Laughing Hyena on February 01, 2022, 04:26:24 PM
First thing to come into my head was Anonymous due to being morr familiar but it's not them but the Cyberpartisitans. Never heard of them to be honest.

I hadn't either, but they seem to be more of a focused group, specifically doing things in Belarus.  I mentioned the article at dinner tonight, and Little Oni came up with the amusing image of a Russian troop train being diverted into a circuitous route like a giant Lionel set.
"Language was invented for one reason, boys - to woo women.~*~*~Don't think it's all been done before
And in that endeavor, laziness will not do." ~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~Don't think we're never gonna win this war
Robin Williams-Dead Poets Society ~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~Don't think your world's gonna fall apart
I do have a cause, though.  It's obscenity.  I'm for it.  - Tom Lehrer~*~All you need is your beautiful heart
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greenknight

Quote from: Oniya on February 01, 2022, 04:57:43 PM
Little Oni came up with the amusing image of a Russian troop train being diverted into a circuitous route like a giant Lionel set.
See, this is why you don't tell people you broke into their house to play with their choo-choos. They take their choo-choos away. If you don't say anything, you get to play with them as long as you want.  ;D
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Bezukhov

Am I the only one seriously scared by the warmongering propaganda in the West? Mind you, I'm not siding with the Russian government at all, but bits I got to read from here and there (mostly shared by experts on the subject) seem to suggest there's very little chance Putin's about to start a war. Here in Italy, most of the media environment is aligned with the narrative about "the Russians are coming", though.

A side note: another thing that I find repulsive is that – again, according to local media – NATO-aligned countries are threatening Russia with harsher sanctions. Which would certainly represent a big blow to the Russian economy, but... it kinda sounds like putting a price on people's head.

Not sure. Wasn't pessimistic at all about a possible escalation a couple of days ago: in fact, I was pretty sure NATO countries would've agreed not to accept Ukraine as a member, fullstop. Crimea would still be gone, but at least...

Anyways: I still have my reasons to believe things won't get worse... but it's scary as hell. Imperialism sucks on both sides, thus I can only wish nothing happens for the sake of both countries. A war would put people's live at stakes, both in Russia and Ukraine (and elsewhere).

Guess I'll keep my fingers crossed for the time being.
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Humble Scribe

Quote from: Bezukhov on February 11, 2022, 03:07:20 PM
Am I the only one seriously scared by the warmongering propaganda in the West? Mind you, I'm not siding with the Russian government at all, but bits I got to read from here and there (mostly shared by experts on the subject) seem to suggest there's very little chance Putin's about to start a war. Here in Italy, most of the media environment is aligned with the narrative about "the Russians are coming", though.
A side note: another thing that I find repulsive is that – again, according to local media – NATO-aligned countries are threatening Russia with harsher sanctions. Which would certainly represent a big blow to the Russian economy, but... it kinda sounds like putting a price on people's head.

I guess that depends on what you call 'warmongering propaganda'. There's plenty coming out of the Kremlin, for sure. Putin is trying to rewrite the post-Soviet settlement regarding eastern Europe and re-establish a sphere of influence, and has effectively declared that he doesn't mind doing that with brute force if need be. NATO has explicitly said that it wouldn't intervene militarily, but it's not going to fold (at least not in public) to Russian demands, so what does it have left? The price on people's heads won't be assassination - that's more Putin's line of work. Instead it will literally be a financial price, and targeted at the elites. Russia is governed by a class of kleptocrat oligarchs, with Putin at the top, and they have a lot of savings and houses and yachts in places which aren't Russia - London has been taken over in the past two decades by dirty Russian money. This is about going after them, in the hope that they will put pressure on Putin. It was interesting that Putin's mistress Alina Kabaeva even got mentioned a couple of weeks back as a possible target of sanctions. Normally the western press and governments maintain a very discreet silence about her.

Quote from: Bezukhov on February 11, 2022, 03:07:20 PM
Not sure. Wasn't pessimistic at all about a possible escalation a couple of days ago: in fact, I was pretty sure NATO countries would've agreed not to accept Ukraine as a member, fullstop. Crimea would still be gone, but at least...
Anyways: I still have my reasons to believe things won't get worse... but it's scary as hell. Imperialism sucks on both sides, thus I can only wish nothing happens for the sake of both countries. A war would put people's live at stakes, both in Russia and Ukraine (and elsewhere).
Guess I'll keep my fingers crossed for the time being.

I agree. I thought they'd probably give Putin a private assurance, similar to the one Kennedy gave Kruschev over Cuba. I mean the one thing that certainly won't happen is Ukraine being accepted into NATO. That would mean NATO would be compelled to defend Ukraine's territory militarily, and that means nations with nuclear weapons (and in Russia's case a low threshhold for using them) going toe to toe, and absolutely no-one wants that, not even Putin.

A week ago I was 50-50 on to what extent this was all a giant poker game and whether Putin would back down and declare the 'military exercise' a giant success, after having wrung some backdoor diplomatic concessions out of Biden. Macron's visit last week especially seemed to be telegraphing that kind of climbdown, especially when he mentioned Ukraine 'Finlandising', as I mentioned in my post on Jan 30th. But from the past couple of days' mood music it looks like the US has decided to take a tougher line and not compromise, maybe with the idea of deterring China from trying something similar with Taiwan, and Putin looks like he's ready to up the stakes again.

Ukraine's conventional military will probably not be a huge challenge for Russia, but a long-term military occupation of a modern country of 40 million people? Trying to turn the clock back to 1968 and the Prague Spring? I don't see that going well. Surely Putin saw what happened in Iraq? The regime change part is the easy bit. It's what happens next that's the issue. Maybe he'll still back down, but it's looking a lot less likely now from where I'm sitting. I'm assuming that the reason that the US is telling its citizens to get out asap is that it has intel that Putin has made a definitive decision to go to war.
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midnightblack

In case some of the readers of this thread are not entirely acquainted with the modern history of Europe, it's worthwhile noting that the idea of independent nations having the freedom to determine their own destinies is largely due to Woodrow Wilson in the aftermath of World War I and the dissolution of the former European empires (mainly Austria-Hungary, the Ottomans and Imperial Russia). This right to self-determination did not last long, as in the aftermath of World War II Europe was divided again between free countries and those that fell under the Iron Curtain. If you've never done this, you might want to read up on the Yalta Conference and learn how this division took place.

Regardless, the legacy left by Stalin and the USSR is one of genocide and a violation of pretty much every single human right we uphold today. With perhaps the sole exception of the recognition that all humans are born equal, though even that came along with the minor addendum that some were more equal than others. In any case, to the extent of my knowledge the Russian Federation has never formally condemned this past. In fact, I believe Vladimir Putin has personally stated that the fall of the USSR was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the XXth century. Personally I would have saved that distinction for one of the many political events that led to the direct deaths of millions of people and the mutilation of entire countries' destinies, but to each their own, I guess.

I happen to live in one of those countries and by now I've grown accustomed to the idea that I will likely never live to see it catch up with history. Turns out that the mass extermination of the upper class and nearly half a century of darkness and inapplicable economic models outside the realm of theoretical debate can't really be undone in a manner of decades. The human loss in particular is irreversible. As for the atrocities committed here and in other parts by the "liberation" Red Army, these are all very well documented and frankly there is no excuse for ignorance on the topic.

As for the current situation, I'll be fairly surprised if Russia does ultimately commit to an attack. Even if this appears to be the plan. It's difficult to understand and I can only attribute it to desperation. They may win the military engagement, but they've long since lost the human and economic battle. I just hope it doesn't escalate further, as it would be a senseless and depressing waste of time and human life.
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Vekseid

Quote from: Bezukhov on February 11, 2022, 03:07:20 PM
A side note: another thing that I find repulsive is that – again, according to local media – NATO-aligned countries are threatening Russia with harsher sanctions. Which would certainly represent a big blow to the Russian economy, but... it kinda sounds like putting a price on people's head.

You dislike warmongering, but also dislike peaceful measures taken to attempt to dissuade this?

Quote from: Bezukhov on February 11, 2022, 03:07:20 PM
Anyways: I still have my reasons to believe things won't get worse... but it's scary as hell. Imperialism sucks on both sides, thus I can only wish nothing happens for the sake of both countries. A war would put people's live at stakes, both in Russia and Ukraine (and elsewhere).

What imperialism has Ukraine engaged in?

Bezukhov

Quote from: Vekseid on February 13, 2022, 12:25:54 AM
You dislike warmongering, but also dislike peaceful measures taken to attempt to dissuade this?

I probably expressed myself badly: I don't dislike sanctions, I actually think they can be (and sometimes are) an effective means of dissuasion. What worries me is that sanctions were basically the only retaliation that liberal-democratic countries were able to enact after Crimea got annexed and a small-scale, still unresolved conflict broke out in Eastern Ukraine.

Long story short, it feels as if you're free to do so as it pleases you, as long as you are ready to endure the economic consequences of sanctions (or the pressure from those local kleptocrats who would suffer the most from them).

QuoteWhat imperialism has Ukraine engaged in?

Absolutely none: Ukraine is the victim of Russian post-Soviet imperial dreams. Born and raised in a western country, though, I cannot unsee our own wrongdoings on the subject of IR and foreign policy.
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Bezukhov

Quote from: midnightblack on February 13, 2022, 12:06:21 AM
In case some of the readers of this thread are not entirely acquainted with the modern history of Europe, it's worthwhile noting that the idea of independent nations having the freedom to determine their own destinies is largely due to Woodrow Wilson in the aftermath of World War I and the dissolution of the former European empires (mainly Austria-Hungary, the Ottomans and Imperial Russia). This right to self-determination did not last long, as in the aftermath of World War II Europe was divided again between free countries and those that fell under the Iron Curtain. If you've never done this, you might want to read up on the Yalta Conference and learn how this division took place.

Regardless, the legacy left by Stalin and the USSR is one of genocide and a violation of pretty much every single human right we uphold today. With perhaps the sole exception of the recognition that all humans are born equal, though even that came along with the minor addendum that some were more equal than others. In any case, to the extent of my knowledge the Russian Federation has never formally condemned this past. In fact, I believe Vladimir Putin has personally stated that the fall of the USSR was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the XXth century. Personally I would have saved that distinction for one of the many political events that led to the direct deaths of millions of people and the mutilation of entire countries' destinies, but to each their own, I guess.

I happen to live in one of those countries and by now I've grown accustomed to the idea that I will likely never live to see it catch up with history. Turns out that the mass extermination of the upper class and nearly half a century of darkness and inapplicable economic models outside the realm of theoretical debate can't really be undone in a manner of decades. The human loss in particular is irreversible. As for the atrocities committed here and in other parts by the "liberation" Red Army, these are all very well documented and frankly there is no excuse for ignorance on the topic.

As for the current situation, I'll be fairly surprised if Russia does ultimately commit to an attack. Even if this appears to be the plan. It's difficult to understand and I can only attribute it to desperation. They may win the military engagement, but they've long since lost the human and economic battle. I just hope it doesn't escalate further, as it would be a senseless and depressing waste of time and human life.

Considering not long ago (last year, I believe?) there were talks of bringing back the statue of Felix Dzerzhinsky back to his place in Lubyanka Square or the whole Memorial affaire... I believe we are still very far from a clear condemnation of last century's atrocities, yeah.
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Vekseid

Quote from: Bezukhov on February 13, 2022, 04:18:32 AM
I probably expressed myself badly: I don't dislike sanctions, I actually think they can be (and sometimes are) an effective means of dissuasion. What worries me is that sanctions were basically the only retaliation that liberal-democratic countries were able to enact after Crimea got annexed and a small-scale, still unresolved conflict broke out in Eastern Ukraine.

Long story short, it feels as if you're free to do so as it pleases you, as long as you are ready to endure the economic consequences of sanctions (or the pressure from those local kleptocrats who would suffer the most from them).

Welcome to the world if you don't want to resort to violence and don't want to silently watch as your neighbors get their sovereignty violated.

Quote from: Bezukhov on February 13, 2022, 04:18:32 AM
Absolutely none: Ukraine is the victim of Russian post-Soviet imperial dreams. Born and raised in a western country, though, I cannot unsee our own wrongdoings on the subject of IR and foreign policy.

Why is 'we' (as in, anyone not Ukraine) relevant, here?

Half the posts in this thread don't seem to acknowledge Ukrainians as having a right to determine the future of their own nation. So America's past actions get brought up.

This seems unthinkable to me.

Why?

Why should Ukrainians pay for America's sins?

greenknight

Quote from: Vekseid on February 13, 2022, 10:24:37 AM
Why should Ukrainians pay for America's sins?
Because whataboutism  >:(
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Bezukhov

Quote from: greenknight on February 13, 2022, 11:08:18 AM
Because whataboutism  >:(

Can we please stop randomly accusing people of 'whataboutism'?

Quote from: Vekseid on February 13, 2022, 10:24:37 AM
Welcome to the world if you don't want to resort to violence and don't want to silently watch as your neighbors get their sovereignty violated.

Why is 'we' (as in, anyone not Ukraine) relevant, here?

Half the posts in this thread don't seem to acknowledge Ukrainians as having a right to determine the future of their own nation. So America's past actions get brought up.

This seems unthinkable to me.

And Vekseid, I agree with your reality check. I'm not an expert on handling international disputes: the truth is, I don't know if there's another option on the table, especially given how dismissive Russian diplomacy has been acting for the last decade or so. I believe Ukrainians should have the right to determine the future of their nation. The same goes for citizens of Georgia or those of any other country in the world, really.

(The situation now looks even bleaker than when I first posted in this thread, by the way...)

If we're talking real politik, though, I believe we have to take into account that much of the world's recent history is filled with examples of superpowers (and, in this case, a superpower-wannabe) meddling with smaller countries' domestic affairs, the whole not-in-my-backyard approach. That's the trouble of bordering with such countries.

Is it fair? Nope. Does it happen? It does. A lot. Does it justify the attitude of the Russian government? It certainly does not.

The only realistic alternative I see, given the current situation, is Ukraine doing what Finland did after World War II, with the Soviets first and with Russian Federation ever since the USSR collapsed, which was mentioned elsewhere in this thread, with the Russians giving up any further demand over the Donbass region. But that is just the opinion of someone observing the situation from the outside and I surely don't know what's happening in NATO headquarters or Ukraine's Foreign Ministry.

Whatever the outcome, again, I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

Quote
Why?

Why should Ukrainians pay for America's sins?

They should not and no one should.
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Leon Weber

Could this start WW3? I mean it could, but it probably won't. I think the unfortunate reality is that EU countries as well as the US want to play it safe so that exact scenario doesn't happen.

Theres kind of no winner here. Increased escalation might be enough to make Putin back down, and it might not. On top of that there are concerns that if the US shifts too much of its attention towards Russia that the Chinese will take the opportunity to invade Taiwan, considering how close the two of them have been as of late.

The other issue is which nations in the immediate vicinity are actually ready to offer any sort of meaningful support to Ukraine beyond merely selling them weapons and ammunition. The German military is in a bad way with no real air force to speak of and while I wouldn't sneeze at the KSK or the Rapid Forces Division I don't know if its enough to carry the day nor if they can really mobilize quick enough to really stop Russia. Not to mention how dependent their industry is on Russian gas. Beyond that the Finns might be willing to lend a hand considering they're always willing to take an opportunity to dick over Russia and have a good portion of their population military ready but this is all hopeful conjecture at best.

The reality of the situation is that Putin can't really afford to have NATO camped out on his front door, not that this makes it justifiable, of course it isn't justifiable. But when discussing the games of geopolitics and armies ruthless pragmatism is the name of the game. I'm not going to talk about the many missteps and international crimes of the US and her allies, enough people have brought them up and even with those in mind it doesn't excuse what Russia is doing now, but it is suffice to say that no ones hands are clean in the grand games of humans, other than the common citizen of course who does not participate in these things consensually for the most part.

As for my personal take, the only thing a man like Putin respects is a hard slap in the face, I think honoring the Ukrainian wish to join NATO is probably the best option and treating them as a NATO member and drawing the proverbial line in the sand. This might escalate things, but it might make him back down as well. At the end of the day nobody really wants to see MAD become reality, even the most sadistic of sociopaths doesn't want to see the world destroyed as without the world there are no good, hard working folk for them to screw over and torment.

greenknight

Quote from: Bezukhov on February 14, 2022, 06:27:01 AM
Can we please stop randomly accusing people of 'whataboutism'?
I answered the same question you did. I didn't accuse anyone.
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Bezukhov

Quote from: greenknight on February 14, 2022, 08:36:26 AM
I answered the same question you did. I didn't accuse anyone.

Oh, sorry, then! Misread it!  :-)
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Oniya

Quote from: Leon Weber on February 14, 2022, 08:11:51 AM
Could this start WW3? I mean it could, but it probably won't. I think the unfortunate reality is that EU countries as well as the US want to play it safe so that exact scenario doesn't happen.

Theres kind of no winner here. Increased escalation might be enough to make Putin back down, and it might not. On top of that there are concerns that if the US shifts too much of its attention towards Russia that the Chinese will take the opportunity to invade Taiwan, considering how close the two of them have been as of late.

The other issue is which nations in the immediate vicinity are actually ready to offer any sort of meaningful support to Ukraine beyond merely selling them weapons and ammunition. The German military is in a bad way with no real air force to speak of and while I wouldn't sneeze at the KSK or the Rapid Forces Division I don't know if its enough to carry the day nor if they can really mobilize quick enough to really stop Russia. Not to mention how dependent their industry is on Russian gas. Beyond that the Finns might be willing to lend a hand considering they're always willing to take an opportunity to dick over Russia and have a good portion of their population military ready but this is all hopeful conjecture at best.

The reality of the situation is that Putin can't really afford to have NATO camped out on his front door, not that this makes it justifiable, of course it isn't justifiable. But when discussing the games of geopolitics and armies ruthless pragmatism is the name of the game. I'm not going to talk about the many missteps and international crimes of the US and her allies, enough people have brought them up and even with those in mind it doesn't excuse what Russia is doing now, but it is suffice to say that no ones hands are clean in the grand games of humans, other than the common citizen of course who does not participate in these things consensually for the most part.

As for my personal take, the only thing a man like Putin respects is a hard slap in the face, I think honoring the Ukrainian wish to join NATO is probably the best option and treating them as a NATO member and drawing the proverbial line in the sand. This might escalate things, but it might make him back down as well. At the end of the day nobody really wants to see MAD become reality, even the most sadistic of sociopaths doesn't want to see the world destroyed as without the world there are no good, hard working folk for them to screw over and torment.

Germany has been extremely 'anti-war' since the last World War - there's an article from the BBC that goes into more detail, but that was the take-away when I read it a few days ago.

It feels like everyone is waiting for someone to blink.  Putin wants to re-establish the Soviet Union (in practice, if not in name).  The push into Ukraine and the support of the Donbass separatists is a way to see if anyone is going to really tell him 'no'.  Trump's shenanigans over Ukraine told Putin that the US (at that time) was inclined to roll over, which has given him four years to entrench the situation.
"Language was invented for one reason, boys - to woo women.~*~*~Don't think it's all been done before
And in that endeavor, laziness will not do." ~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~Don't think we're never gonna win this war
Robin Williams-Dead Poets Society ~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~Don't think your world's gonna fall apart
I do have a cause, though.  It's obscenity.  I'm for it.  - Tom Lehrer~*~All you need is your beautiful heart
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Vekseid

Quote from: Bezukhov on February 14, 2022, 06:27:01 AM
And Vekseid, I agree with your reality check. I'm not an expert on handling international disputes: the truth is, I don't know if there's another option on the table, especially given how dismissive Russian diplomacy has been acting for the last decade or so. I believe Ukrainians should have the right to determine the future of their nation. The same goes for citizens of Georgia or those of any other country in the world, really.

(The situation now looks even bleaker than when I first posted in this thread, by the way...)

Biden has been trying to use three pressures. Threatening sanctions, relocating air and naval assets, and perhaps the most important but the one that is pissing off Ukrainian leadership the most: broadcasting Russia's supposed plans.

This pisses off Ukraine's leadership because it creates a culture of fear, which Ukraine does not want because it threatens their economy. Biden is doing it because it makes Russian leadership think twice, which everyone wants, except for some Russian leaders.

Whether this is appropriate, well Beau of the Fifth Column disagrees with me on this one, but in my view it's the only one of the three that may seriously change Putin's mind. It would mean a lot of things, for example that the supposed evisceration of America's intel operations during the Trump administration is not what we were led to believe.

Vekseid


Beorning

Quote from: Vekseid on February 18, 2022, 09:51:01 PM
About two hours ago, a pair of explosions could be heard outside Mariupol. Webcam with audio here.

Numerous reports of ceasefire violations are occurring.

It seems like Russia might be trying to manufacture an incident to justify an "intervention". They also might try to claim that the people in Donbas (many of whom have been granted Russian citizenship in the last few years) are being targeted for genocide by the Ukrainian government - again, to justify an invasion. If they go with it, it'll be very similar to how Russia justified (and keeps justifying!) the invasion of Poland of 1939... "No, we absolutely didn't cooperate with Hitler in dismantling Poland! We just had to step in and protect our people!".

The US has lowered classification of intelligence detailing plans for a mass arrest and assassination campaign to be carried out following the invasion.
[/quote]

Yeah. I think it really shows that those governments and media people who urged for a harsh stance toward Russia weren't engaged in warmongering... They were reacting realistically toward genuinely aggressive actions by Putin.

BTW. I admit that, here in Poland, we're having a bit of a Cassandra moment currently... I mean, our politicians and media were trying to warn of what Putin was doing for years now. We kept telling the Western European countries that Putin's Russia was not a normal country with peaceful political goals and only honest concerns that needed to be taken into account by the rest of the world. We kept warning that Putin is an autocrat with growing imperialistic ambitions and that he seems to be intent on retaking the control over Eastern Europe states that USSR had. But our warnings were seen as "Russophobia" and Western Europe kept doing business with Russia, treating it as a normal political partner etc.

And now? Putin seems to be gearing for a full-on invasion of Ukraine (with plans of detaining / assasinating Ukrainian politicians and of installing a puppet government) and the West seems surprised. And suddenly, the strength of business relations countries like Germany etc. have with Russia becomes a problem - because big economic sanctions will bite Europe back... Meanwhile, it's not a surprise to us here - it exactly what we kept warning about! That Putin was trying to tie Russia deeply into European economy, so that he'd have leverage to use for the time he decides to start really aggressively against other countries.

Beorning

Hmm. Considering how all of this is developing... am I the only one who literally expects for the bombs to start dropping on Kiev any hour now..?

Humble Scribe

Quote from: Beorning on February 20, 2022, 05:13:33 PM
Hmm. Considering how all of this is developing... am I the only one who literally expects for the bombs to start dropping on Kiev any hour now..?

No. There's a window - after the end of the Winter Olympics, so as not to spoil his friend Xi Jingping's parade, and before the 'rasputitsa' thawing of frozen ground that will turn the terrain to mush. The disinformation is in high gear judging from Twitter tonight, and there are already reports of "Ukrainian" shellfire falling in the Donbas region as part of Putin's attempt to manufacture his own Gleiwitz Incident. Or perhaps I should say Gliwice Indicent, with due apologies, Beorning. Biden has cancelled engagements and there's supposedly military radio 'chatter' that suggests invasion is imminent.
While I feel for the people of Ukraine, it's worth remembering that if the last presidential election had gone the other way, we'd have someone in the White House now who said Crimea belonged to Russia and who tried to blackmail the Ukrainian govenment into trying to get dirt on the son of a political opponent, but who his own party still didn't dare cross, because they cared more about the election than "a quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing", to quote a somewhat infamous British prime minister.
The moving finger writes, and having writ,
Moves on:  nor all thy Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.

Ons and Offs

Humble Scribe

The game plan proceeds.
Now Putin is about to recognise the 'independence' of the Donetsk region.
The next step is for Russian forces to be invited in to 'protect' them from Ukrainian 'aggression'.
He may just try to leave it at that, organise a plebiscite like he did with Crimea, and just annex the area to Russia. At the risk of Godwin's Law, that is straight out of Hitler's playbook for Austria, the Sudetenland and Czechoslovakia.
Or he may then organise a fake attack on Russian forces by 'Ukrainians' and use that as a pretext for a wider invasion.
Either way, there isn't a diplomatic solution on the table once he signs that independence decree.
The moving finger writes, and having writ,
Moves on:  nor all thy Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.

Ons and Offs

Beorning

Quote from: Humble Scribe on February 21, 2022, 12:32:36 PM
The game plan proceeds.
Now Putin is about to recognise the 'independence' of the Donetsk region.

And now Putin did just that:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60454795

In his speech, he also repeated the suggestion that Ukraine is not really a true independent country etc. He also made claims that modern Ukraine is a chaotic, corrupt country and that it's under full control of Western states... Oh, and Ukraine is - apparently - working on building nuclear weapons  :o

So, basically: the Ukrainian government is both inept and illegitimate, just a puppet of NATO aggressors. Russia is under the threat of attack from Ukraine and from NATO territories (the Poles might start shooting Tomahawks at Russian territory!). And the breakaway territories are sovereign states where Russians live... and these Russians need to be protected from the Ukrainian "fascists". So, it does look like there's nothing for the Russian government to do, but to invade Ukraine, right? That's the only way to defend Russia from a NATO-controlled lawless state... especially as the poor Ukrainian people are simply manipulated by their sell-out government. Oh, and it's not like Ukraine is a real country anyway!

It's all so familiar.  >:( Exactly the same rhetoric the Soviets have been using since 1930s...