Abandon all hope?

[Beorning]

Okay, I might be overly pessimistic these days - but I'm worried that things in the world aren't going in the right direction. Looking at the things that are happening, I can't help being afraid of the future...

Specific points of worry for me:

1. Trump - okay, he got indicted three times, but I'm told it doesn't actually stop him from running for US presidency next year. What if he wins? If that happens, it's a given he'll immediately squash all the trials behind held against him. Or he'll just pardon himself. Then, he'll withdraw support for Ukraine... not to mention the crazy stuff he'll quite probably do in the States. This is a nightmare scenario.

2. Poland - we have parliamentary elections sometime this Autumn (the date has not been set yet). And it seems that PiS might actually win a third term! These guys are the most incompetent and corrupt government we've had in years - not to mention, there are more and more instances of them trampling people's civil liberties. And yet, they are still getting 30% votes according to polls. This is insane. If they get a third term, they will turn Poland into a fully authoritarian country - and they'll have us leave the EU for sure. Agh!

3. Ukraine - how long until the international support for this war ends? Russia is clearly planning a war of attrition, hoping that NATO's reserves will run out. If nothing changes, sooner or later Ukraine will crumble. This is horrible...

4. Climate crisis - is it me, or things are really bad now? Can this be helped in any way? Or have we, as a species, dug ourselves into a corner and cannot be saved?

I don't know, maybe I'm ranting like a madman here? But I'm worried. Meh...

[Chulanowa]

1. According to what I can find, the trials are supposed to start in May of next year. however, there's a high likelihood of them getting pushed back some - both because  that's how it just ends up working in the court system, and also out of caution for "respecting the electoral process." And no, there's nothing at all stopping him from running for president, or winning. if this is a genuine worry though, then I think it says far less about Trump than it does about the person he's running against. I mean really. "I lost an election to a dude convicted of trying to stop the transfer of power after the last election" is a hell of a flop

2. I'm no expert on Poland's internal politics, and to be honest my interactions with Poles have been pretty uniformly unpleasant so I haven't really invested much time into the matter (except to occasionally mock people who fetishize the Second Republic, which I gather is a big thing for Law and Justice)

3. Russia is clearly conducting a war of attrition. And yeah, the reality is that a nation that is reliant on foreign supply to wage war is always going to be at a severe, possibly insurmountable disadvantage to one that is not.

4. Can it be helped? Maybe. Will it be helped? Of course not. The reality is even if we cut emissions to zero today, the impact is already there. It'll be at least a century, maybe two or three of bonkers shit as all that carbon works its way through the biosphere, eventually locked away as limestone and wood. But of course we're just not going to cut emissions to zero. First off, we probably can't, even if the will to do so existed. Second.. the will does not exist to even try infinitesimal reductions. Because that would cut profits. it would make some fabulously wealthy people substantially less wealthy (but still fabulously so.) And we can't have that at all, can we? But if it makes you feel any better; Our species will survive (many others won't.) Our societies... well, they won't. Our descendants are going back to some hunter-gatherer stuff.

[inkybus]

4. Climate crisis - is it me, or things are really bad now? Can this be helped in any way? Or have we, as a species, dug ourselves into a corner and cannot be saved?

The 100 richest companies in the world are responsible for at least 71% of carbon emissions that contribute to climate change. The 'carbon footprint' that attributes climate change to the average Joe/Jane is a wistful dream: common folk cannot do anything to make the slightest dent in climate change.

If, somehow, billionaires were to run it back and reform the way their companies work to be eco-friendly, only then could change maybe brought in. But they did not get where they are if they put the world above their bottom line.

[Rinzler]

Personally, I'd add AI to that list of woes. I have little doubt that it'll lead to some extraordinary progress, particularly in the field of medicine. But I also have some pretty dark forbodings about the amount of unemployment which will result, and the associated societal maladies. Unless governments the world over start thinking up some contingencies - like universal basic income, for instance - I see us heading pretty much into Mad Max territory.

I have seen the future, Winston, and it is a multitude of leather gimps warring in the wasteland for the last human-created comic books.

[midnightblack]

Personally, I'd add AI to that list of woes. I have little doubt that it'll lead to some extraordinary progress, particularly in the field of medicine. But I also have some pretty dark forbodings about the amount of unemployment which will result, and the associated societal maladies. Unless governments the world over start thinking up some contingencies - like universal basic income, for instance - I see us heading pretty much into Mad Max territory.

I have seen the future, Winston, and it is a multitude of leather gimps warring in the wasteland for the last human-created comic books.

For what it's worth (which isn't much, but anyway), I find the claims regarding AI advances and generally technological matters involving quantum computing and connected issues rather inflated. Not that progress isn't being made, but we're still a fair way off from Skynet taking over. At present it would be the AI's idiocy which would get us all killed if it were to be trusted with sensitive tasks. A more realistic problem, that of unemployment, might not be as dramatic as apparent at first sight. Any sort of physical activity and most activities that are even remotely demanding from an intellectual perspective are still quite out of reach for computers and I expect them to remain so for the foreseeable future. At best they will benefit due to AI, but without a complete removal of the human element. And in regard to the other points:

1 & 2: the political class pretty much everywhere in the Atlantic space is in such a depressing condition I'm honestly surprised we aren't back to the primitive yet. Not that your concerns aren't valid, but I imagine we'll all muddle along together for another term if the worse comes to worst.

3: at this point it doesn't even matter anymore if Russia kills them all, plants its flag on Kiev and claims complete victory. Their gains amount at best to mud contaminated with heavy metals and political irrelevancy for the next generation. Of course this doesn't mean anything for the human tragedy and loss that are involved, but these days in particular I'm wondering about the value that we as a society in the broadest sense put on human life. Doesn't feel like much, being perfectly honest.

4. it's probably going to get worse no matter what, for a variety of reasons of which an alarming amount aren't really well understood at all. The European continent itself might not crumble in the next 50 years, though I'm not so sure about other parts of the world and effects cascading from there.

[Vekseid]

1. Trump - okay, he got indicted three times, but I'm told it doesn't actually stop him from running for US presidency next year. What if he wins? If that happens, it's a given he'll immediately squash all the trials behind held against him. Or he'll just pardon himself. Then, he'll withdraw support for Ukraine... not to mention the crazy stuff he'll quite probably do in the States. This is a nightmare scenario.

He's going to get indicted again in Georgia. He can't be pardoned for his crimes in Georgia before he's served his sentence. I doubt the governor of New York is going to pardon him.

This leaves the Federal cases. The documents case in Florida is scheduled (by the judge) to end around the time of the convention. So it won't have much impact on the Republican primary.

The January 6th case looks to be designed for relative speed. I would not be surprised if it is done before the end of the year. We will see.

There might be another documents case for his crimes in Bedminster.

If Trump loses the primary (possible if the attempts to televise the January 6th case succeed, and if it concludes before Iowa votes on January 15th), I think he is going to go nuclear on the Republican party. He won't be winning and he will try to take the party that 'betrayed' him down with him.

If he wins the primary, he's facing a very uphill battle against Biden by the 'fundamentals' as 538 often puts it. Things may change next year, of course. If he's in prison because of the January 6th charges (almost certain if he is found guilty in that trial), he is going to be at an enormous disadvantage even as kooks try to make a martyr out of him.

There is also the matter of the potential revelation of who else ended up with the intelligence Trump mishandled. If that ends up being China, that will be a bridge too far for many of his supporters.

For what happens if Trump wins the general, he will certainly try to pardon himself. It would certainly be disastrous for the US on many fronts. The Senate has passed a bill requiring a 2/3rds approval from the Senate to withdraw from NATO, so there is that.

For Ukraine though, Russia still has 15 months to get through before the 2024 elections, and then another two months before the inauguration. And then the rest of Europe is still supplying Ukraine. Russia is going to be struggling no matter what.

2. Poland - we have parliamentary elections sometime this Autumn (the date has not been set yet). And it seems that PiS might actually win a third term! These guys are the most incompetent and corrupt government we've had in years - not to mention, there are more and more instances of them trampling people's civil liberties. And yet, they are still getting 30% votes according to polls. This is insane. If they get a third term, they will turn Poland into a fully authoritarian country - and they'll have us leave the EU for sure. Agh!

Well if Poland leaves the EU that gives the EU leverage to deal with Orban and do something about ensuring democratic principles in its constituent nations. Which it cannot do right now. Small solace, I suppose : /

3. Ukraine - how long until the international support for this war ends? Russia is clearly planning a war of attrition, hoping that NATO's reserves will run out. If nothing changes, sooner or later Ukraine will crumble. This is horrible...

Politically, the US is willing to support Ukraine pretty much as long as Ukraine is willing to fight. For other countries, it will depend on their normal relation with Russia but the EU is moving to multi-year packages to commit support through 2027 IIRC.

Only the election of certain republicans would jeopardize this, and I think some are just blowing fluff for the Russophilic portions of their base. I think Trump's support of Russia is going to be a greater liability in 2024 than it was in 2016 or 2020.

4. Climate crisis - is it me, or things are really bad now? Can this be helped in any way? Or have we, as a species, dug ourselves into a corner and cannot be saved?

"Can't be saved" requires another ~15-30 degrees C to be added to oceanic temperatures. A threshold that gets hit before this saps the carbon from the atmosphere, and that is actually how multicellular life on Earth dies due to rising temperatures as the carbon cycle cannot continue.

This isn't to say the situation is going to be at all pleasant over the next century. We are nowhere near destroying the biosphere.

Personally, I'd add AI to that list of woes. I have little doubt that it'll lead to some extraordinary progress, particularly in the field of medicine. But I also have some pretty dark forbodings about the amount of unemployment which will result, and the associated societal maladies. Unless governments the world over start thinking up some contingencies - like universal basic income, for instance - I see us heading pretty much into Mad Max territory.

I have seen the future, Winston, and it is a multitude of leather gimps warring in the wasteland for the last human-created comic books.

Maybe. At the same time socialist and communist sentiment is rarely so high with home ownership at the levels they are now.

There are individual companies behind the current situation. They and their executives can be held responsible, in one fashion or another.

[Missy]

I very much doubt Trump stands a chance against Biden, actualyl if he runs against Biden again, then the margin in actual votes between them will probably increase. I'll be honest I don't trust Americans to vote intelligently (just look at the state of American politics), but there are certain things people notice and keep in mind. Trumps base is extremists and the American Moderate probably won't support him with all the indictments in the news.

I gotta say I feel bad for Poland right now, ever sicne you've been talking about it your PiS sounds like the equivalent of your Nazi party.

Russia has it's own series of internal problems to deal with, including the fact it's rapidly running out of boys, men, grandads to send to the front line. I'm slightly exaggerating here, but really internal support and even resources to prosecute a war is a massive issue for Putin right now. Heck he just barely survived a coup recently anyway. The longer the war goes on the worse position Putin is in actually.

I'm nto a climate change expert, but frankly if it gets that bad then it's too late to be time to start talking about the Fermi Paradox. (it wouldn't surprise me).

[inkybus]

Russia has it's own series of internal problems to deal with, including the fact it's rapidly running out of boys, men, grandads to send to the front line. I'm slightly exaggerating here, but really internal support and even resources to prosecute a war is a massive issue for Putin right now. Heck he just barely survived a coup recently anyway. The longer the war goes on the worse position Putin is in actually.

Not to mention the apathy of the russians at the whole debacle.

If you think about it, Putin has got to be scared about how the populace was just letting it all roll by them, without a care in the world. Some were even giving a pat on the back to 'the enemy' and stuff: they absolutely did not care if armed forces outside of the actual army managed to take Moscow.

I guess that's what you got to expect when you put the fear of you into the civilians you ought to protect.

[Missy]

yeah though there's also a side that is actively opposed to the whole deal of the Ukraine War. Even if such opposition is actively supressed - Little Big is Russian Band with Asylum in America right now because of it.

Little Big: Generation Cancelation (linked due to minors)

[Humble Scribe]

I very much doubt Trump stands a chance against Biden, actualyl if he runs against Biden again, then the margin in actual votes between them will probably increase. I'll be honest I don't trust Americans to vote intelligently (just look at the state of American politics), but there are certain things people notice and keep in mind. Trumps base is extremists and the American Moderate probably won't support him with all the indictments in the news.

I'd like to believe that, but it only takes Biden falling over in public once or twice and Republicans will push the "he's too old and incapable" angle very hard and it might swing a few moderates. He's 80 years old for God's sake (I know Trump is 77, but in spite of his supposedly unhealthy diet, he just seems more alive and generally *there* than Biden).

[Iniquitous]

I'd like to believe that, but it only takes Biden falling over in public once or twice and Republicans will push the "he's too old and incapable" angle very hard and it might swing a few moderates. He's 80 years old for God's sake (I know Trump is 77, but in spite of his supposedly unhealthy diet, he just seems more alive and generally *there* than Biden).

And what you have seen of Biden "just being there" has been on news cycles with the commentary of how old he is as well as the orange idiot's constant stream of "sleepy Joe Biden".

Do I think we need younger politicians? Good gods yes!  An octogenarian has no chance in reaching the youngest voting generation, much less understanding their generation.  Trump is not too far off from being an octogenarian himself.

With that said, if my choices are an octogenarian or a radioactive colored criminally inclined idiot, I'm going with the octogenarian with the expectation that his running mate will likely finish the term.

[Chulanowa]

I very much doubt Trump stands a chance against Biden, actualyl if he runs against Biden again, then the margin in actual votes between them will probably increase. I'll be honest I don't trust Americans to vote intelligently (just look at the state of American politics), but there are certain things people notice and keep in mind. Trumps base is extremists and the American Moderate probably won't support him with all the indictments in the news.

Okay so, a few things.

US politics are not the way they are because Americans are "stupid." "Everyone but me is dumb!" is simply self-gratifying nonsense and should always be discarded as a basis for a viewpoint. US politics are the way they are largely because our electoral system has no concept of power sharing. Whoever wins the plurality of votes - not even the majority! - wins the totality of power. What this means is that there's a strong incentive to subsume out-of-power factions into one group, since myriad factions trying to replace the one in power will rarely succeed, even if combined they greatly outweigh the in-power faction. As power flips back and forth, the distinctions within the factions are flattened out, and eventually the two factions themselves find little functional difference between themselves.

Which is where we are now. While American voters do have a fair bit to answer for, The fact is we are being strongly pushed in a direction by the electoral system itself. And since changing that electoral system requires a constitutional amendment - which is effectively held hostage by this system - we're kind of stuck.

[Missy]

Okay so, a few things.

US politics are not the way they are because Americans are "stupid." "Everyone but me is dumb!" is simply self-gratifying nonsense and should always be discarded as a basis for a viewpoint. US politics are the way they are largely because our electoral system has no concept of power sharing. Whoever wins the plurality of votes - not even the majority! - wins the totality of power. What this means is that there's a strong incentive to subsume out-of-power factions into one group, since myriad factions trying to replace the one in power will rarely succeed, even if combined they greatly outweigh the in-power faction. As power flips back and forth, the distinctions within the factions are flattened out, and eventually the two factions themselves find little functional difference between themselves.

Which is where we are now. While American voters do have a fair bit to answer for, The fact is we are being strongly pushed in a direction by the electoral system itself. And since changing that electoral system requires a constitutional amendment - which is effectively held hostage by this system - we're kind of stuck.

But everyoen but me is dumbthough! obviously

Seriously though if everyone understood what you do, we might be able to fix the problem. So actually everyone but you is dumb. The only way a Democratic system can ever work is if the general populace which form the basis of that system have an education structured to support it. not unlike the way our current educational system is designed to support the economic system we've built. So yes, the average American is too stupid and ignorant to ever be able to participate functionally in a healthy sustained Democracy.

[Vekseid]

I don't think we need to fix all of education.

Just engendering a culture of critical thinking will go a long way. And honestly I don't think there are many other options to thrive in the future. Not just on a societal level but even on a familiar one - scams are going to get more intelligent, more common, and more personal.

[Regina Minx]

Sometimes, it is worth remembering that there is good in the world. Here we have visualization of WHO, World Bank, and other NGO actors' data.