Election Season 2024 (United States)

[Oniya]

A small ray of sunshine would be that 'President for Life' isn't likely to be terribly long.  Installing Junior as 'Heir Apparent' scares the crap out of me, however.

[Chulanowa]

A small ray of sunshine would be that 'President for Life' isn't likely to be terribly long.  Installing Junior as 'Heir Apparent' scares the crap out of me, however.

This is why I laugh at Republicans, who are saying the same thing about Biden. If the dude wins he's ALREADY going to be "president for life," that battery's got like two years left in it, tops.

[Keelan]

This is why I laugh at Republicans, who are saying the same thing about Biden. If the dude wins he's ALREADY going to be "president for life," that battery's got like two years left in it, tops.

Who is suggesting that about Biden? That would certainly be a new one for me.

[LostInTheMist]

A small ray of sunshine would be that 'President for Life' isn't likely to be terribly long.  Installing Junior as 'Heir Apparent' scares the crap out of me, however.

He has no right to have lived as long as he has, to be fair. But yes, the heir apparent thing worries me too. As impossible as it is to believe, Junior is even less qualified and even less competent than his father. Other members of the family suffer from the same problem.

Who is suggesting that about Biden? That would certainly be a new one for me.

Republican radicals are always suggesting this sort of thing. I heard the same thing regarding Obama both in '08 and '12, and Clinton in the '16 campaign. And keep in mind that there's still a portion of the Republican population who believe, despite the lack of any evidence, and the conclusion of multiple investigations (including Republican-led pro-Trump investigations slanted heavily against the Democrats) that there was no election fraud last election. So in their minds, Joe Biden, however long he remains in office, is an illegitimate president. (And does anyone here think Trump will concede the 2024 election were he to lose?)

[GloomCookie]

Given that two states have already removed Trump from the ballot (Colorado and Maine, with the case still pending in Oregon but kept on the ballot in Michigan and Minnesota, article here) he may not get the opportunity. While together he's now ineligible to receive 14 electoral votes, that still leaves other states to remove him from the ballot. If a handful of states such as California or New York (54 and 28 electoral votes respectively) remove him from the ballot, then even if he cinches Texas and Florida (40  and 30 electoral votes respectively), he would still need 200 points, which will become increasingly difficult. Some states will definitely vote Red, but some will definitely vote Blue, and no state is ever guaranteed for a side this early in the season.

TL;DR: Trump may not get the chance if enough states remove him from the ballot because it'll be impossible to get 270 votes.

[TheGlyphstone]

If no one gets 270, though, it goes to the House which is currently controlled by the Republicans, so they would elect Trump anyways.

[Oniya]

Who is suggesting that about Biden? That would certainly be a new one for me.

While I don't think Biden would declare himself P4L, I'm keeping a distinct eye on his VP choices.  That's more of a 'too many old white guys in politics' situation.  On the more critical side of things, Trump's got the ambition/inclination to try for a dictatorship/dynasty.

[TheGlyphstone]

As an interesting thought experiment - Trump himself would love to found a dynasty, but would Don Junior want the job? Hes every bit as ambitious as his father, but from what little I've seen he doesn't seem to have the same streak of pathological narcissism. So he'd at least be aware that the job isn't all sun and roses - depending on how much of Trump's business empire is left standing, would the effectively dictatorial authority he'd have as CEO be more appealing than the theoretical dictatorial authority over a country that is not going to make that transition cleanly, quietly, or peaceably?

[Prism]

If no one gets 270, though, it goes to the House which is currently controlled by the Republicans, so they would elect Trump anyways.

It's even better than that.

The election in the House works based on one vote per state delegation. The candidate receiving 26 or more votes from state delegations is elected president. Due to the relatively large number of small red states this means that Republicans could win a contingent election even if Democrats controlled the House, because Republicans would be more likely to have 26+ state delegations even if Democrats had more representatives due to large blue states like California still only counting as one state.

The House elects the president but does not elect the VP; this procedure was written before the 12th amendment was a thing, and it was never changed. The VP is elected by the Senate, with each Senator getting one vote. This means that if the Democrats control the Senate, they could elect a Democratic VP, who would serve under a Republican president elected by the House.

What about if there is a 25-25 tie in the House? Nobody knows. Or what if a state delegation itself is tied? Nobody knows that either. The Constitution doesn't say. All it says is that if the House can't pick a president, the VP serves as acting president until it does.

[GloomCookie]

If there's a 25/25 split in the House, unlikely though that scenario is, wouldn't the tie-breaking vote go to the Speaker of the House? That seems like the role they're there for, which would default it back into Republican hands.

I do sometimes wonder what a two party Presidency (President in one party, VP in another) would look like. I know they changed the rules because that was how things originally were, but I can't help but wonder what a more modern situation would look like. Would the two clash over politics? Or would the VP uphold their duty to carry out the President's agenda even if it conflicts with their own, assuming they were ever called upon to do such a thing? It's an interesting thought experiment.

However, I highly doubt Trump will be removed from enough ballots to throw his ability to get 270 into question. There's simply too many states that will keep him on there come hell or high water, and the states most likely to remove him from the ballot are probably going to be blue anyway, so it's a moot point. But I do find it interesting that Abraham Lincoln was not elected in any southern state and still won the presidency. Would we have a similar situation, where an entire geographic region refuses to vote for a candidate and yet they still win? I doubt it'll ever be that cut and dry, but still.

Before anyone jumps in and tries to claim I'm painting Trump as a modern Lincoln, save your breath. I'm just pointing out historical context for situations in the past that are similar, but not identical to, our modern situation. 

[LostInTheMist]

There are 435 voting members in the House of Representatives, and the Speaker votes like any other member of the House. TRADITIONALLY, the speaker doesn't vote unless it's going to be a close vote but in the event of a tie, the motion/bill fails.

The Vice President's only real duties are to have a pulse and to cast the tie-breaking vote in the Senate. This would conflict sometimes with the President's Agenda, and while the Vice-President does appear at events where the President chooses not to appear, I imagine you'd get a dueling presidency, as the Vice President would appear at the places that would increase his chances of unseating the sitting President during the next election. I strongly doubt any opposite-party VP today would vote the way the President wanted him to, against his own interests.

If the Supreme Court rules that Trump can be disqualified from ballots, enough states would remove him that he'd likely have to sweep those states where he's on the ballot to win. Although making it impossible for him to win in, say, Pennsylvania might give him other places to focus his campaign funds. I don't know. But I doubt the Supreme Court will do that. It's stacked enough by Republican appointees that they're likely to ignore the clear text of the Constitution that prohibits Trump from participating and insist he be restored to those ballots from which he was removed.

Obama got no Southern States in 2012 and still won re-election to the Presidency. Democrats typically don't get many or any Southern States. (Georgia being an exception for Biden in 2020, North Carolina and Virginia for Obama in 2008.)

[TheGlyphstone]

Ron DeSantis ends 2024 presidential bid and endorses Donald Trump | AP News 

So I can only call this a good thing, as much as I don't like Donny boy. Trump irritates, annoys, and disgusts me, but the idea of a President DeSantis terrified me.

Looks like we're headed for Trump v Biden 2: Geriatric Bugaloo.

[GloomCookie]

I can't help but suspect this is strategic on his part. If DeSantis concedes, he can focus his efforts on trying to get something else, like VP or Secretary of State. He knows that Trump can only get one term, then he'll be in a position to leverage that into running for president in 2028. I don't know precisely, I'm just tossing out a possible reason for this course of action.

[TheGlyphstone]

That's certainly likely. He also did quite poorly in Iowa which is a strong barometer for the GOP as a whole, so its certainly strategic to cut his losses and position himself for a smaller prize. 

[LostInTheMist]

I don't know that DeSantis has enough charisma for even Trump to consider him for VP. Even Nikki Haley (who is infinitely unlikable) might be a better VP pick, because at least she is better at pretending she is human than DeSantis.

[GloomCookie]

I don't know that DeSantis has enough charisma for even Trump to consider him for VP. Even Nikki Haley (who is infinitely unlikable) might be a better VP pick, because at least she is better at pretending she is human than DeSantis.

He doesn't have charisma to you. But he has a lot of charisma for his voter base, enough that he got to be governor of Florida. While that doesn't mean anything for the whole country, it's enough that there's at least a group out there that was swayed by what he says.

[LostInTheMist]

He doesn't have charisma to you. But he has a lot of charisma for his voter base, enough that he got to be governor of Florida. While that doesn't mean anything for the whole country, it's enough that there's at least a group out there that was swayed by what he says.

That's Florida. To become a governor of a state, you only have to appeal to that state's voters. And remember, it's Florida.

But no, I understand that charisma can be a POV thing.

[Keelan]

That's Florida. To become a governor of a state, you only have to appeal to that state's voters. And remember, it's Florida.

But no, I understand that charisma can be a POV thing.

Funny, I say the same thing about California.

[Oniya]

So, this literally just came across my feed.  There are actually other Democratic candidates entering the primary race:  https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-2-primary-challengers-new-hampshire-phillips-williamson/story?id=106607113

[Oniya]

Personal opinion on the alternative Dem candidates:  Williamson sets off my 'flake' alarms, although her ideas are mostly promising.  Phillips looks like a Biden 2.0 - likely to get in all of the people that are primarily concerned about aging statesmen. 

Cenk Uygur is also running, but has that 'naturalized citizen' clause in the Constitution to contend with, first and foremost.  (Cenk immigrated from Turkey when he was 8 years old.)  After that, his opponents (from all parties) could make hash of him with his social media posts.

[Keelan]

Cenk Uygur is also running, but has that 'naturalized citizen' clause in the Constitution to contend with, first and foremost.  (Cenk immigrated from Turkey when he was 8 years old.)  After that, his opponents (from all parties) could make hash of him with his social media posts.

His entire schtick I'm pretty sure is "There's no law that says I can't RUN for president" while clearly he cannot hold that office were he to actually get votes.

Considering his 2020 House bid he got 6.6% of the votes, pretty sure the guy has negative chance.

[Oniya]

Well, it's a little hard to run for President when you can't legally be on the ballot.  (Arkansas isn't the only state that has rejected him.  So far, only Minnesota, Oklahoma, Texas, Connecticut, and Vermont are alleged to have accepted his application - Connecticut is confirmed, but the others were mentioned in a press release from his campaign. Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Arkansas have officially rejected his application.)

[Tolvo]

Personal opinion on the alternative Dem candidates:  Williamson sets off my 'flake' alarms, although her ideas are mostly promising.  Phillips looks like a Biden 2.0 - likely to get in all of the people that are primarily concerned about aging statesmen. 

Cenk Uygur is also running, but has that 'naturalized citizen' clause in the Constitution to contend with, first and foremost.  (Cenk immigrated from Turkey when he was 8 years old.)  After that, his opponents (from all parties) could make hash of him with his social media posts.

Williamson it should be mentioned has promoted a lot of pseudo science and fake medicine, and has been an anti-vaxxer. She claims she is not but then continues to repeat anti-vax rhetoric.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/15/politics/kfile-marianne-williamson-anti-vaxxer-theories/index.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/marianne-williamson-response-question-vaccination-2019-8

[Oniya]

Williamson it should be mentioned has promoted a lot of pseudo science and fake medicine, and has been an anti-vaxxer. She claims she is not but then continues to repeat anti-vax rhetoric.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/15/politics/kfile-marianne-williamson-anti-vaxxer-theories/index.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/marianne-williamson-response-question-vaccination-2019-8

Thanks - I knew she sounded familiar, and not in a good way.  Philips flies mostly under the radar and is yet another 'white dude in politics', but I haven't seen anything alarming yet.