Ukraine

[gaggedLouise]

Do they have the same perceived need to? I mean, N. Korea already applies a significant buffer to the West's largest strongholds in the area, and they've already got more land and people than they can manage at the moment.

True, and I figure China (mainland China) would be better served by simply accepting Taiwan as a neighbour that isn't striving to impose itself as "the real China" anymore. Kids who are beginning school now in China or Taiwan will barely know anyone who can clearly remember a time when the Guomindang were the real rulers of most of China, and China itself is becoming much less communist than it used to be. The whole feud is becoming obsolete, and Taiwan has been making efforts to step out of its own shadow of claims to represent the real China and craft a new national identity that isn't building on that claim. If they pulled through with this, the PRC would have little reason to see Taiwan as a major enemy.

[Callie Del Noire]

The China issue involves 'Face'. There is a LOT of honor and standing and perceived insults running around here. Cultural issues I don't really get as an American but have listened to men who spent their entire Naval careers discussing. More than one CO of mine had a very specific focus on the next 'Sea Power' foe they'd be facing as being the People's Republic of China. We're talking men who from the very end of the cold war looked East to watch China's policiies, attitudes and focus on their corner of the world.

China, without a doubt, is the biggest untapped economic power in Asia. Taiwan is something that galls and eats at the leadership of that powerhouse. And to some extent undermines their standing, at least to themselves. Despite the PRC having never 'ruled' the island nation, they have for the last.. oh.. sixty odd years claimed sovereign authority over the 'outlaw province'.

Sometime, most likely by 2030, they will try. .politically and/or militarily to seize the country. You can bet on that. They spent the entire length of my Navy career designing a fleet posture to counter our carrier fleet after the events where we sat off the coast of Taiwan in 96-97.

[Zakharra]

Do they have the same perceived need to? I mean, N. Korea already applies a significant buffer to the West's largest strongholds in the area, and they've already got more land and people than they can manage at the moment.

What need does Russia need of the eastern Ukraine and the Crimea? they can use the same excuse of 'protecting Chinese interests and the safety of ethic Chinese minorities'. China wants to be the big fish in Asia and to control the sphere of influence. If they can muscle in on their neighbors and exert more direct influence, they will I think. After all, they took over Tibet.

The China issue involves 'Face'. There is a LOT of honor and standing and perceived insults running around here. Cultural issues I don't really get as an American but have listened to men who spent their entire Naval careers discussing. More than one CO of mine had a very specific focus on the next 'Sea Power' foe they'd be facing as being the People's Republic of China. We're talking men who from the very end of the cold war looked East to watch China's policiies, attitudes and focus on their corner of the world.

China, without a doubt, is the biggest untapped economic power in Asia. Taiwan is something that galls and eats at the leadership of that powerhouse. And to some extent undermines their standing, at least to themselves. Despite the PRC having never 'ruled' the island nation, they have for the last.. oh.. sixty odd years claimed sovereign authority over the 'outlaw province'.

Sometime, most likely by 2030, they will try. .politically and/or militarily to seize the country. You can bet on that. They spent the entire length of my Navy career designing a fleet posture to counter our carrier fleet after the events where we sat off the coast of Taiwan in 96-97.

Exactly.

[kylie]

          Twilight Zone talk?

On the ground in Crimea, what is particularly odd is that the most vociferous defenders of Russian bases against supposed fascists appear to hold far-right views themselves.

Outside the Belbek airbase, an aggressive self-defence group said they were there to defend the base against "Kiev fascists", but also railed against Europe, "full of repulsive gays and Muslims".

"What you foreigners don't get is that those people in Maidan, they are fascists," said Alexander, a Simferopol resident drinking at a bar in the city on Monday night. "I mean, I am all for the superiority of the white race, and all that stuff, but I don't like fascists."

         I suppose it depends which definition of fascism one has in mind (not that people generally bother being explicit in tossing this out there)...  But I was under the impression that in Europe especially, the ready comparison would often be to Nazi Germany.  And there it's kind of hard not to notice racism as a central ingredient in the mix...  Or so it would seem?

[Neysha]

Do they have the same perceived need to? I mean, N. Korea already applies a significant buffer to the West's largest strongholds in the area, and they've already got more land and people than they can manage at the moment.

Mwahahahahahahaha



Seems reasonable.

[TheGlyphstone]

Apparently you can (try to) gerrymander territorial water boundaries. Who knew?

[chaoslord29]

Mwahahahahahahaha



Seems reasonable.

Guess I was affording them a bit too much in the way of reason-ability for a country of 1.3 billion and 3.7 million square miles. I don't know why but China has just never struck me as the expansionist power that Russia has in the modern era. They're an economic bully and their particular brand of communist fascism puts Putin's authoritarianism to shame though, so I'm not going to put anything past The Party's leadership in Beijing.

Russia's moves in eastern Europe don't strike me as particularly overtly threatening for the West though. Putin isn't the madman Hitler was, and he seems more possessed of the idea of globalist economics and inter-dependency to try anything like the Blitz. This strikes me more as a move to consolidate his own power and continued dominion of internal Russian politics, in the face of Ukraine's revolution. He's reminding everyone that it's still his show being run here, and securing the national resources he needs to keep it that way.

[Scribbles]

Russia's moves in eastern Europe don't strike me as particularly overtly threatening for the West though. Putin isn't the madman Hitler was, and he seems more possessed of the idea of globalist economics and inter-dependency to try anything like the Blitz. This strikes me more as a move to consolidate his own power and continued dominion of internal Russian politics, in the face of Ukraine's revolution. He's reminding everyone that it's still his show being run here, and securing the national resources he needs to keep it that way.

I just wanted to voice my agreement with the above statement, if anything I feel Putin is hoping the US and EU won't call his bluff. I highly doubt anyone would eagerly jump into another World War, especially if you take into account all the nukes and such we now have floating about.

Russia really can't afford sanctions either, so again I think it's all a bluff. They realize that the EU's largest powers rely heavily on their fuel and are hoping that this will be enough to stave off any possible sanctions.

[Petronius]

Guess I was affording them a bit too much in the way of reason-ability for a country of 1.3 billion and 3.7 million square miles. I don't know why but China has just never struck me as the expansionist power that Russia has in the modern era. They're an economic bully and their particular brand of communist fascism puts Putin's authoritarianism to shame though, so I'm not going to put anything past The Party's leadership in Beijing.

When you're not responsible to an electorate, you can lose touch with "reasonable" to a degree.

[Neysha]

Wow...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h79v9uirLY

[Question Mark]

Wow...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h79v9uirLY

That deserves a standing ovation.

[gaggedLouise]

          Twilight Zone talk?

         I suppose it depends which definition of fascism one has in mind (not that people generally bother being explicit in tossing this out there)...  But I was under the impression that in Europe especially, the ready comparison would often be to Nazi Germany.  And there it's kind of hard not to notice racism as a central ingredient in the mix...  Or so it would seem?

Haha, no! I've heard the "F word" used about cops, judges, people with right and left-wing opinions - and even aggressive and "bossy" swans that caught the attention of locals (!). No need at all to infer any particular brand of political ideas with this word, when it's used as an expletive.

[kylie]

Haha, no! I've heard the "F word" used about cops, judges, people with right and left-wing opinions - and even aggressive and "bossy" swans that caught the attention of locals (!). No need at all to infer any particular brand of political ideas with this word, when it's used as an expletive.

        I think it's often true and it might just be true in how some of the soldiers there are speaking.  But if you adopt that widely across the whole situation... Many, many people who support Russian actions keep trying to play up the idea that the Ukrainian government is all about fascism now.  I think it's more about code for losing 'friendly control' of territory close to home or making any opposition to Putin demonized at that level.  To take it too broadly as having no more particular imagery in mind, would be simply to reduce Putin himself to cussing out Ukraine and the US government too without any moral claims involved, and that would be too simplistic. 

         And once they are doing much more than cussing wildly to sound mean, it's worth asking well is there any basis in history or definition to believe or include any of it and if so, how much.  Or are they being totally hypocritical.  I do gather that there may be a few radicals in a whole lot of movements and that doesn't necessarily blacken the Ukrainian opposition as a whole nor immediately justify an invasion (unless Ukraine was say, seriously going to do some ethnic cleansing maybe -- which I highly doubt; it sounds more like Russia stirred up the pro-Russians to create more disorder in Crimea).  Just trying to get a clearer sense what's really going on.

[kylie]

           So what is the deal with the sniper story?  Every other vehement Putin supporter seems to point to this story where the Estonian foreign ministry told Ashton they were from the protest side.  Although the way I read it, even if that rendition were correct, it doesn't really attribute any reaction to Ashton beyond surprise and some suggestion of an investigation.

          The Putin backers seem to believe that Ashton either was clueless, or even that this somehow shows she should 'know' that innocent civilians (or is that unmarked police or other protestors? Really I'm just catching up!) were shot by opposition-tied people...  Though I really can't see how logic leads to the latter.   However, somewhere in the Guardian blog I read that Ashton and/or the Estonians had denied this was an accurate report -- seeming to suggest parts of the transcript were outright fabricated.  Meanwhile, the Russian press claims the Estonians say it was real.  Funny stuff.  But all rather short and vague. 

        At least one or two of the comments at the Guardian have since claimed that the snipers were seen relaxing along with the government police, and this is supposed to be on YouTube.  Everyone claims if you look on YouTube you'll agree with their side, haha -- is someone bluffing or is it just that vague of a video someplace?  Not excited enough about sniper footage yet to bother looking at multiple links.   

         Has anyone heard anything more in-depth about this?


.... Meanwhile, the Crimean parliament and (I'm betting) Russia (not necessarily in that order) are rushing toward annexation.

[gaggedLouise]

That story was new to me - I have some catching up to do as well - but here's another link: Kiev sniper allegations

It sounds like Yanukovich spin, and apparently the only thing (remotely!) supporting it is that phone call, supposedly with the EU's "foreign minister"  Catherine Ashton at one end. Planting rumours of this kind always does happen in this sort of crisis, it's as natural as different factions all taking credit for an asassination or a wave of sudden factory labour strikes. The story of the raided maternity ward in Kuwait City where Saddam's soldiers pulled electricity cords and killed prematurely born children and even nurses by gunshot, anyone?

[kylie]

        Well it was said to be collected by Yanukovich's people tapping sooo...  Who knows.  And even if true, it wouldn't be the first case of friendly fire or downright confusion in the world (especially, shooting both sides and particularly right at the breach in the barricades?). 

         Or maybe in a bad case, there could even be a rogue sniper team somewhere who was a little off kilter or had an agenda.  I'm not sure it's so obvious even then that they would have had a relationship directly with the "leadership" of the opposition as many have suggested.  There is this pattern where Putin's supporters keep insisting that anything they can find wrong with the opposition anywhere, in any amount, taints the whole thing and reflects directly upon the intentions of the leadership.  (See claims about neo-Nazis left and right.)

          Rather like you've said before, few publicly active people active in politics over the last several years have been totally clean, and/or it wouldn't be a total surprise if after a major change, the opposition fields a strongman sort (particularly in this neck of the world where that masculinity thing sells so well).  Doesn't necessarily mean the whole movement is all criminal if so.

[Neysha]

It's likely a non-story.

A minister said that he had heard from a medic that she believed that protestors and police were shot by the same people and that since the new gov was doing nothing, they may have staged it and then goes on to say that these are the kind of harmful rumors that have to be countered.

The thing of it is... this conspiracy theory is based on the fact that the same ammunition was likely used by these shooters. While the ballistics on the shooting hasn't been released yet, chances are that there aren't exactly a diverse array of rounds used by snipers. 7.62x39 or 7.62x54 is pretty much the most accessible ammunition to be used by anyone on any side in the Ukraine.

[Neysha]

The truly troubling thing happening in Ukraine is this:

Crimean Parliament votes to join Russian Federation, to hold referendum in 10 days.

They're bypassing the whole independence or increased autonomy idea entirely. They're going straight to annexation.

Meanwhile the view outside the Crimean parliament.



The referendum sounds like it should be legitimate.

[Question Mark]

The truly troubling thing happening in Ukraine is this:

Crimean Parliament votes to join Russian Federation, to hold referendum in 10 days.

They're bypassing the whole independence or increased autonomy idea entirely. They're going straight to annexation.

Meanwhile the view outside the Crimean parliament.



The referendum sounds like it should be legitimate.

I'm sure I'm saying what everyone's thinking, but this is bad.  Very bad.  I can understand eastern Crimea wanting to be annexed, but the entire region going over to Russia at gunpoint is frightening.  Imagine the crackdowns and resistance, not to mention whatever Ukraine itself has up it's sleeve.  Also, giving Russia all of those ports is more than a bit concerning given their recent actions.

[Callie Del Noire]

First step. I'm betting this will be used again in the future as 'justification' to bring other centers of Russian ethnicities back into Russia by Putin. And then there will be 'events' where the governments in place will be framed as 'unstable', 'irresponsible' or 'out of touch' or whatever.

Putin is trying to rebuild the country he once served. It might be called something different but in the end.. he's trying to rebuild USSR.

[kylie]

First step. I'm betting this will be used again in the future as 'justification' to bring other centers of Russian ethnicities back into Russia by Putin. And then there will be 'events' where the governments in place will be framed as 'unstable', 'irresponsible' or 'out of touch' or whatever.

Putin is trying to rebuild the country he once served. It might be called something different but in the end.. he's trying to rebuild USSR.

        Maybe so, but it feels like there's a certain amount of chance and opportunism here too.  It was five years between Georgia and this...  And Putin at least comes across as quite shocked that Kiev went to the opposition, before the brokered plan could go through and keep Yanukovich in place somewhat longer.  I imagine some of this has been planned in advance too, but I wonder if he's reacting to a few things as well.

         Still wondering what it would take to convince Europe to find another damn gas supplier.  Hillary has already been tossing Hitler comparisons about the land grab, but it seems like 2nd tier politicians and likely presidential candidates often do bring out the less diplomatic points.  The US (technically via Nato) has literally a few planes in the Baltics, but would it really defend them?

[Zakharra]

First step. I'm betting this will be used again in the future as 'justification' to bring other centers of Russian ethnicities back into Russia by Putin. And then there will be 'events' where the governments in place will be framed as 'unstable', 'irresponsible' or 'out of touch' or whatever.

Putin is trying to rebuild the country he once served. It might be called something different but in the end.. he's trying to rebuild USSR.

I think the Crimea is a test case for Russia. It can be used in other areas Russia wants, the Baltic States, Moldova, other parts of Ukraine and wherever Russian can has/can place Russian minorities. It's not out of the question Russia would make incidents happen to do as you say Callie. Then the Russian military can come in and restore peace and order.

I'd almost say he's aiming to build a modified USSR, with himself as the perpetual leader, ie the Czar of Russia. He's been the one in charge since 2000 when Yeltsin resigned in 1999. I believe he will got for a fourth presidential term when his current one comes up for re-election in 2018. and I would not be surprised if the Russian constitution gets amended to allow for him to stay in office one way or another for as long as he wants.

[Callie Del Noire]

I think the Crimea is a test case for Russia. It can be used in other areas Russia wants, the Baltic States, Moldova, other parts of Ukraine and wherever Russian can has/can place Russian minorities. It's not out of the question Russia would make incidents happen to do as you say Callie. Then the Russian military can come in and restore peace and order.

I'd almost say he's aiming to build a modified USSR, with himself as the perpetual leader, ie the Czar of Russia. He's been the one in charge since 2000 when Yeltsin resigned in 1999. I believe he will got for a fourth presidential term when his current one comes up for re-election in 2018. and I would not be surprised if the Russian constitution gets amended to allow for him to stay in office one way or another for as long as he wants.

I think that he already has.

[gaggedLouise]

I think the Crimea is a test case for Russia. It can be used in other areas Russia wants, the Baltic States, Moldova, other parts of Ukraine and wherever Russian can has/can place Russian minorities. It's not out of the question Russia would make incidents happen to do as you say Callie. Then the Russian military can come in and restore peace and order.

I'd almost say he's aiming to build a modified USSR, with himself as the perpetual leader, ie the Czar of Russia. He's been the one in charge since 2000 when Yeltsin resigned in 1999. I believe he will got for a fourth presidential term when his current one comes up for re-election in 2018. and I would not be surprised if the Russian constitution gets amended to allow for him to stay in office one way or another for as long as he wants.

There are similar sets around with a few of the Tsars included too.  :-)

[Neysha]

Putin 'Deeply concerned' over US invasion of Cuba

MOSCOW — Claiming that the recent movement of U.S. military forces further into Cuban territory was a “dangerous provocation,” Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters Tuesday he was “deeply concerned” that geopolitics was starting to return to the era of the Cold War.

“We are now deeply concerned by reports of military movements taken by the United States inside Cuba,” Putin said to reporters in a brief statement from Moscow. “We do not want to return to a Cold War standoff with the Americans. That is absolutely not in our national interest.”

In recent days, unidentified armed men have seized key areas of the tiny Caribbean island, leading Cuban President Raul Castro to denounce the action as an “armed invasion.” The troops, who wear no insignia but are armed with American-made weapons, were seen setting up roadblocks and portable toilets they could masturbate in for as long as the deployment lasted.

While he initially denied they were U.S. troops, President Obama later said he ordered soldiers and Marines to secure the island for the protection of the people.

“It’s possible in this situation, complying with a request by the Joint Task Force Guantanamo government, even to bring a limited contingent of our troops to ensure the safety of the detainees and the American citizens living on Cuban territory,” Obama told reporters. “We need to protect the people.”

Long a contested region just 90 miles from U.S. shores, Cuba was first discovered by godfather and savior of America, Christopher Columbus, who after leaving Spain, discovered and claimed the island in the name of the United States in 1492. Spain briefly held the island following the Spanish-American War of 1898, until the U.S. once again seized it in a coup d’état in 1959.

While Russian media has aimed a critical eye at what it has called a “destabilizing situation,” American newspapers and television stations have taken a supportive stance. In one example, Fox News showed a photo from the Guantanamo Bay detention center which depicted smiling detainees hugging and kissing American military guards they had reportedly greeted as liberators.

For a bit of levity. ;)