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Ever wondered how many times guns saved the day?

Started by Monfang, February 15, 2013, 03:38:28 PM

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Cyrano Johnson

Quote from: Zeitgeist on February 15, 2013, 08:11:17 PMI don't give a damn what Cyrano Johnson thinks of Republicans and the Conservative Movement.

That's your prerogative. But it's not just my opinion that I'm describing, is the point. I didn't tank the Cato Institute's reputation, I didn't give Fox News its well-earned "Faux News" nickname. Conservatives did that and many similar things to themselves, on their own; the movement deliberately chose propaganda over facts at a certain point in its history, and now has to live with the consequences of that. You're going to find political debates in this day and age incredibly frustrating if you can't face up to this.
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Branwen

Quote from: Zeitgeist on February 15, 2013, 08:11:17 PM
Sure, I appreciate that but we're also way off topic now (partially my fault) and so I was just trying to cut it short. What I really should have said I don't give a damn what Cyrano Johnson thinks of Republicans and the Conservative Movement.

That's a different thing then. :)  Thank you very much for clarifying and I hope the debate remains enjoyable for you and everyone else involved.

Zeitgeist

Quote from: Cyrano Johnson on February 15, 2013, 08:16:49 PM
That's your prerogative. But it's not just my opinion that I'm describing, is the point. I didn't tank the Cato Institute's reputation, I didn't give Fox News its well-earned "Faux News" nickname. Conservatives did that and many similar things to themselves, on their own; the movement deliberately chose propaganda over facts at a certain point in its history, and now has to live with the consequences of that. You're going to find political debates in this day and age incredibly frustrating if you can't face up to this.

Well you can stick that patronizing tone where the sun don't shine skipper. You know next to nothing about my ideological and political persuasions. And yet your every word drips of bias:

massively skewed
echo chamber
huge credibility problem


I mean for fucks sake, the country elects then reelects a mixed race man with a Middle Eastern middle name not long after the smoke clears from 9/11 and people still act like Fox News, Bush and Rupert Murdoch run the country or something. What would you do if you didn't have Fox News to point to? Golly, you might have to look in the mirror once in awhile.

Breaking news for you. Neither ideological angle has all the answers or is right about everything.


Cyrano Johnson

#28
Quote from: Zeitgeist on February 15, 2013, 08:30:51 PMWell you can stick that patronizing tone where the sun don't shine skipper.

I'm sorry my tone offends you, I'm simply stating a fact. The conservative movement and its media have credibility problems unique to themselves, which they've created. The words "echo chamber" and "massively skewed" are called-for, and accurate. I'm not going to say otherwise because you throw a tantrum, and if my criticisms have nothing to do with your ideology or your politics, then you have no reason to be intemperate.

Incidentally:

QuoteBreaking news for you. Neither ideological angle has all the answers or is right about everything.

What's that you were saying about a "patronizing tone"? And you're changing the subject. Nobody is "right about everything," but that doesn't mean that some people can't have worse credibility problems than others. If an "ideological angle" is making its mistakes because it has chosen propaganda over facts -- and one of them is -- there comes a point where you can't obscure that fact. We're at that point. We've been there for a long time.
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elone

I read most of what has been said here and have a few observations. As an indicator of my own bias, I am a fan of NPR and dislike Cato.

That being said, I clicked a few of the pins on the map to actually see what they said. They seem to be factually presented stories and unless someone can actually prove they are false, then maybe they may be true. They are, after all trying to make their point. One thing that does stand out is how few of these instances there are given the time span. I also looked at Florida, and could not find the Zimmerman/Trayvon Martin shooting listed. Nor did I see listings where anyone who used a gun in a self protective manner was charged for doing so. And of course Cato gave no such map for accidental shootings or gun offenses by people with legal ownership.

One problem with gun debates is that there are unknowns, both pro and con. For instance, how many home invasions/burglaries are prevented because criminals know that many people keep guns in their homes. Likewise, how many gun crimes are committed with guns stolen from said homes. (there may actually be stats for that somewhere). In countries where gun ownership is basically prohibited, do people feel safe in their homes versus people in countries that allow gun ownership.

Then there are the second amendment fans who say we need guns to protect us from the possible abuse by government in the future.

Since getting rid of guns won't happen, some common sense laws on registration and background checks seem reasonable. Large capacity magazines aren't really necessary for anyone either. The whole issue over assault weapons is a little murkier. It seems like an issue over appearance, because all semi automatic rifles are equally dangerous and capable of killing rapidly. Also, why ban an assault rifle and not a semi automatic pistol?

I am not pro assualt rifle, I just think that the press and public don't really know what the hell they are talking about.
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ShadowFox89

Quote from: Zeitgeist on February 15, 2013, 08:30:51 PM
I mean for fucks sake, the country elects then reelects a mixed race man with a Middle Eastern middle name not long after the smoke clears from 9/11 and people still act like Fox News, Bush and Rupert Murdoch run the country or something. What would you do if you didn't have Fox News to point to? Golly, you might have to look in the mirror once in awhile.

Breaking news for you. Neither ideological angle has all the answers or is right about everything.

Ah, the sweet sweet smell of a hypocrite.

Fox News is irrelevant to anyone who doesn't actively try to listen to the trash they spew. Bush got shoved under the bus almost as fast as Romney did. Murdoch owns just about every conservative media outlet in the major English speaking nations.

What would be done if there were no Fox News? Trolls would be out of a job, because they'd have no one to astroturf for. Old white men with nothing better to do would have to go back to watching Judge Judy and screaming at the minority kids to stop walking by their property. The other media outlets rarely even say anything about Fox News, unless it's Fox acting like morons again.

9/11 happened. It was a tragedy, yes. But the smoke is long cleared. To live in the past is to forget the mistakes made. To refuse to move forward is to live with your head in the dirt.

And the repubs love shoving their own faces in the dirt, when they aren't trying to do so to anyone who isn't rich, white, or male.
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Callie Del Noire

Ah..shadowfox.  I'm a republican. Granted not a good one according to the ruling cadre but still. I find those comments divisive and not at all helpful in anyway towards the situation we have going on. Now I agree about the issues that Fox brings to the news but there are similar, though less heavy handed, similar issues going on with folks at CNN and MSNBC.


My major issue with Fox is that like most of Rupert Murdochs media empire, it's HIS mallet to wield. Want to see how he electioneers everywhere else he has businesses. The slams he does to political rivals overseas is MINDBOGGLING. He'd be in court for libel every day here.

Fox isn't a GOP tool, it's a Murdoch tool, and if the DMC was in his pocket live certain parts of the GOP were, Fox would be slamming the GOP reps instead of the president. It's not politics, it's business.

Zeitgeist

Quote from: ShadowFox89 on February 16, 2013, 02:49:39 AM
Ah, the sweet sweet smell of a hypocrite.

Fox News is irrelevant to anyone who doesn't actively try to listen to the trash they spew. Bush got shoved under the bus almost as fast as Romney did. Murdoch owns just about every conservative media outlet in the major English speaking nations.

What would be done if there were no Fox News? Trolls would be out of a job, because they'd have no one to astroturf for. Old white men with nothing better to do would have to go back to watching Judge Judy and screaming at the minority kids to stop walking by their property. The other media outlets rarely even say anything about Fox News, unless it's Fox acting like morons again.

9/11 happened. It was a tragedy, yes. But the smoke is long cleared. To live in the past is to forget the mistakes made. To refuse to move forward is to live with your head in the dirt.

And the repubs love shoving their own faces in the dirt, when they aren't trying to do so to anyone who isn't rich, white, or male.

I'm simply pointing out that blaming Fox News is a tired, old, limp wet dish rag of an argument. If you require an example of a sane argument you need only look as far as above you at elone.

Mithlomwen

Looks as if things are starting to get a bit heated. 

I'm going to lock the thread for 24 hours to allow things to cool down a bit. 
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Cyrano Johnson

#34
Quote from: Zeitgeist on February 16, 2013, 08:11:06 AM
I'm simply pointing out that blaming Fox News is a tired, old, limp wet dish rag of an argument.

Fox News still has all the characteristics that long ago earned it its extremely poor reputation. So do other conservative media outlets like WorldNetDaily, Drudge Report & c. The question I was addressing was whether conservative media outlets are the equivalent of NPR, and the answer is still no, they aren't, and pretending that they are [seems potentially] disingenuous. In my opinion it's the "what about NPR's controversies?!" [gambit] that is [tired and old], the decades-old tactic of [shouting] about "bias" in order to derail objectivity.

(EDITED in the interest of elevating the tone, per Remiel's request.)
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Remiel

Please watch the tone, Cyrano.  That goes for you as well, Zeitgeist. 

If you guys cannot keep it civil, we're going to lock this thread permanently.

Will

There are not a lot of pins in that map in the OP.  Maybe if it was meant to cover the span of one year, it would be meaningful.  But the criteria for inclusion seems to be "any incident, ever, that you can source."

Let's contrast that with some data with specified time ranges.

QuoteIn 2010, guns took the lives of 31,076 Americans in homicides, suicides and unintentional shootings.  This is the equivalent of more than 85 deaths each day and more than three deaths each hour.
This seems pretty insane to me.  Just within the space of one year?  31,000 people dead by gunshot.  How many of those were criminals in the process of committing a crime?  And of those, how many were committing a crime that deserved death?  How many were even armed and/or dangerous?

QuoteIn 2010, unintentional firearm injuries caused the deaths of 606 people.
Just over 600 people dead, by accident, in the space of one year.  Comparing that to a map that plots incidents from any year - even a quick gloss-over shows that the number of pins doesn't even come close to 600.  For all time, ever.

QuoteA federal government study of unintentional shootings found that 8% of such shooting deaths resulted from shots fired by children under the age of six.
Kids, man.  I hate to say 'think of the children,' but seriously.  It's a very small number compared to all gun-related deaths, but it's the only number that's anywhere near as small as the number of pins on that map.

Quote from: Monfang on February 15, 2013, 03:38:28 PM
So what say you? Are they right that gun ownership by law abiding citizens saves just as many or more lives than not?
Not even close.  It just barely edges out accidental gun death involving children.

Also, conjecturing about how many criminals fled the scene and escaped after being confronted with a gun isn't going to get you anywhere.  We could hem and haw about any number of unknowns, such as how many police actions were fucked up by pistol-wielding vigilante citizens, how many unremarkable situations were escalated into violence, and how many deaths that caused.
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Quote from: Will on March 03, 2013, 08:46:23 PM
There are not a lot of pins in that map in the OP.  Maybe if it was meant to cover the span of one year, it would be meaningful.  But the criteria for inclusion seems to be "any incident, ever, that you can source."

Let's contrast that with some data with specified time ranges.
This seems pretty insane to me.  Just within the space of one year?  31,000 people dead by gunshot.  How many of those were criminals in the process of committing a crime?  And of those, how many were committing a crime that deserved death?  How many were even armed and/or dangerous?
Just over 600 people dead, by accident, in the space of one year.  Comparing that to a map that plots incidents from any year - even a quick gloss-over shows that the number of pins doesn't even come close to 600.  For all time, ever.
Kids, man.  I hate to say 'think of the children,' but seriously.  It's a very small number compared to all gun-related deaths, but it's the only number that's anywhere near as small as the number of pins on that map.
Not even close.  It just barely edges out accidental gun death involving children.

Also, conjecturing about how many criminals fled the scene and escaped after being confronted with a gun isn't going to get you anywhere.  We could hem and haw about any number of unknowns, such as how many police actions were fucked up by pistol-wielding vigilante citizens, how many unremarkable situations were escalated into violence, and how many deaths that caused.


Well since no crime deserves death short of I don't now....  killing a thousand people. I'm going to say the number of people who were killed committing a crime that deserved death is somewhere around zero.
'
Actually you know what? I'm in favor of the death penalty but only for people who killed the equivalent or more then a thousand people. I feel like that's a just enough crime to deserve. Short of that we'll put   you in prison for life like   a civilized society instead of   a bunch feral 1st century Romans nailing the second coming through his hands and leaving him out in the sun to die.



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Callie Del Noire

Quote from: DTW on March 04, 2013, 01:22:25 AM

Well since no crime deserves death short of I don't now....  killing a thousand people. I'm going to say the number of people who were killed committing a crime that deserved death is somewhere around zero.
'
Actually you know what? I'm in favor of the death penalty but only for people who killed the equivalent or more then a thousand people. I feel like that's a just enough crime to deserve. Short of that we'll put   you in prison for life like   a civilized society instead of   a bunch feral 1st century Romans nailing the second coming through his hands and leaving him out in the sun to die.

I disagree. To me some folks have clearly moved past the point of redemption without having killed more than one or two folks.  For example a couple kidnaps, rapes and totures a woman for 72 hours and after they get bored with her stab her over two dozen times with a screwdriver then when she doesn't die immediately from her wounds injects her with drain cleaner. Sorry mad dogs, human or animal need to be put down. The woman in that couple was executed when I was in high school. My teacher partnered with one of the officers who caught them. They were on the hunt for another victim.

Charles Manson was given plenty of time to reform his habits, but each time he came out the institutions worse. There is a point when you have to accept some folks can't be changed by the system

That being said, we also need MASSIVE reform in the prison system. We create a lot of our own problems with some of the laws in place today.

owen84

Banning gun dose not stop people from getting them. Most countries ban drugs but they still hit the streets.
I live in Wales where guns are ban. But I know at least 3 people who could get me one by the of the day.
The problem is control and what kind of weapons are needed and should be sold.
A teacher of mine once said "give every one guns for free, then charge them one million per bullet" the idea is any one can kill any one but is it worth the price.

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Kythia

I'm sorry, Im confused.  Your argument is that anyone can get guns even here in the UK where they are illegal.  But then you say that making bullets expensive is the solution.  Surely the same smugglers or whatever that sold guns would just sell ammo instead?  I don't fully understand what putting the price up would do. 
242037

owen84

Sorry that was not ment to be a solution. I'm not arrogant enough it admit to having that, I don't think any one dose. Just something some one said that I found funny. The idea of every one with a gun but ammo. Rendering one useless with out the other.
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Kythia

Ah, I get you.  Sorry, obviously feeling oddly literal today.

Welcome to E, by the way
242037

owen84

Why is it that only in death do we truly learn about life.

Caehlim

#44
Quote from: Callie Del Noire on March 04, 2013, 10:14:41 AM
I disagree. To me some folks have clearly moved past the point of redemption without having killed more than one or two folks... (sorry can't bring myself to even quote this bit)... Sorry mad dogs, human or animal need to be put down.

I don't necessarily disagree with you Callie, though the thought makes me uncomfortable. Some people just don't belong in a world with anyone else and I think in some cases execution can be preferable in a variety of factors to lifetime incarceration.

QuoteThere is a point when you have to accept some folks can't be changed by the system

That being said, we also need MASSIVE reform in the prison system. We create a lot of our own problems with some of the laws in place today.

Our system (By 'we' I mean western civilization in general) can't decide whether it's meant to deter people, "punish" them or rehabilitate them. It's no surprise that it doesn't work. How can we expect it to work when it can't even decide what its goal is?
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Sethala

Well, I've got a few thoughts on the issue.

First, our hypothetical ideas of how many crimes can be prevented by guns... well, they don't have to be that hypothetical.  We can look at crime rates for various things in the US, and compare them to other countries with similar factors (such as the UK, Japan, Austrailia) and contrast the amount of gun ownership with the number of crimes committed.

Here's a study I'd like to find (though my brief searches haven't gotten anything yet): Make a list of how many violent crimes occur in each year, by country.  They should be rated by as close to the same criteria as possible (I know that some countries have different definitions for "violent crimes", so hopefully that can also be taken into account somehow).  Then, look at the number and rate of violent crimes that involved a firearm, violent crimes that involved a fatality from a firearm, and violent crimes that involved a fatality from something other than a firearm.

I think what you'll find is that: the US and other countries that have a lot of guns will have a lot more crimes involving guns, and a lot more fatalities that involve guns.  The rate of violent crimes that don't involve guns but end in a fatality will likely be pretty close to the same between countries.

However, whether the US has more violent crimes than other countries can be... difficult.  The "obvious" response is that violent crimes will be less frequent in the US, but those that are violent will escalate to a fatality much more often because guns are much easier to obtain here.  Perhaps it would also be worth looking at how often a violent crime with a fatality has the aggressor as the fatality, compared to the victim; the former case wouldn't be anywhere as unfortunate as the latter.  (As an aside, I'm not saying that the attacker would deserve death... but the victim wouldn't deserve the attack, either, and I'm of the opinion that if you get into a fight with someone, you can't complain if things go horribly wrong for you.)

On the other hand, I would not be surprised if the US has higher violent crime rates, despite the supposed protection of guns.  The reason for this is that while the victim is much more likely to have a gun, the criminal does as well.  Further, he's more likely to go into a crime prepared than a victim is, so it's not entirely clear that more people having guns will actually prevent crimes, just make the aggressor more likely to have a gun of his own before committing it.

But that applies mostly to premeditated crimes; someone lurking in a bad spot of town waiting to mug someone, or someone breaking into a store to rob it.  What about spontaneous crimes, someone lashing out?  Well unfortunately, guns are a hell of a lot easier to lash out with than a knife, at least if they're not kept somewhere safe and somewhat difficult to get into (and, as gun nuts would argue, what good is a gun if you can't get to it quickly in an emergency).  And while a lot of people in the US are big fans of carrying around a gun, I don't think that mentality applies to carrying around a knife (even in other countries), meaning most sudden outbursts would probably end with fists instead of weapons if it weren't for concealed guns.  Further, the mentality that someone has to gt into in order to pull a gun on someone else and threaten/shoot them is usually not the same mentality that would make someone stop and think that maybe that guy also has a gun, and decide to do something else.

Ok, I'm rambling here.  But the point is, I want to see more data.  Mainly, crime rates between the US and other countries, and not just a list of anecdotes.

Caehlim

Quote from: Sethala on March 11, 2013, 12:50:50 PM
We can look at crime rates for various things in the US, and compare them to other countries with similar factors (such as the UK, Japan, Austrailia) and contrast the amount of gun ownership with the number of crimes committed.

That can at best indicate correlation, not causation. Wouldn't it be just as likely that in a country with less crime, people feel less need to purchase a gun to feel safe?

Besides, those countries do not have very similar factors. Australia has a 3.9% gun ownership rate, The US has 36% so they are clearly different on gun ownership. However are the other variables similar enough to draw anything from?

Australia has universal free healthcare, you're paid by the government while you're unemployed (for some people for their entire lives), all medication is heavily subsidized and the housing commission provides subsidized housing. (Yeah... we're pretty much socialist already over here).

Those factors will hugely affect the level of desperation people feel, which is at least one factor in how much violent crime you'll see.
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BCdan

#47
The main problem is that it is hard to report on crimes that do not occur because of the use of guns in self defense.  How many crimes don't happen because someone backed off or re-evaluated committing a hostile act because they knew their target was not a soft target?  This I feel is one of the main problems that self-defense advocacy has. Its hard to prove that a rape or murder or robbery would have happened had the victim not had a gun save for those rare circumstances where the person doing the attacking literally spelled out their plans. 

Edit for example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Colorado_YWAM_and_New_Life_shootings   Just imagine if someone during that horrible mass shooting in Norway had a concealed weapon. Even incredibly restrictive laws can't stop gunman. 


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Sethala

Quote from: Caehlim on March 11, 2013, 05:41:07 PM
That can at best indicate correlation, not causation. Wouldn't it be just as likely that in a country with less crime, people feel less need to purchase a gun to feel safe?

Besides, those countries do not have very similar factors. Australia has a 3.9% gun ownership rate, The US has 36% so they are clearly different on gun ownership. However are the other variables similar enough to draw anything from?

Australia has universal free healthcare, you're paid by the government while you're unemployed (for some people for their entire lives), all medication is heavily subsidized and the housing commission provides subsidized housing. (Yeah... we're pretty much socialist already over here).

Those factors will hugely affect the level of desperation people feel, which is at least one factor in how much violent crime you'll see.

Those are good points, actually, and I didn't really think about that yet.  Overall though, what I want to say is that we need to make arguments and decisions based on full data sets, not just on anecdotal evidence (which, as far as I can tell, is all that the OP's link offers; a bunch of anecdotes with no real measurement as to whether they're the rule or just the exception).  Sadly, there's a lot of other stuff we have to fix here before the government can even start on an honest discussion about gun control, but that's another topic entirely.

Quote from: BCdan on March 11, 2013, 08:59:37 PM
The main problem is that it is hard to report on crimes that do not occur because of the use of guns in self defense.  How many crimes don't happen because someone backed off or re-evaluated committing a hostile act because they knew their target was not a soft target?  This I feel is one of the main problems that self-defense advocacy has. Its hard to prove that a rape or murder or robbery would have happened had the victim not had a gun save for those rare circumstances where the person doing the attacking literally spelled out their plans. 

Edit for example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Colorado_YWAM_and_New_Life_shootings   Just imagine if someone during that horrible mass shooting in Norway had a concealed weapon. Even incredibly restrictive laws can't stop gunman. 

Perhaps.  But let me give you a scenario: let's say that Bob is at that shooting (or a similar one).  He's got a gun with him, and hears shots go off around a corner.  Being the brave, good Samaritan that he is, he pulls out his gun, turns off the safety, and goes around the corner.  He sees a man, clearly shaken, holding a gun while a crowd of people forms around both him, and a body lying on the ground.  Bob quickly takes aim and fires just as the man turns to face him.

Ok, now let's go back a few seconds, and go into that room.  Dave's also got a gun.  He's actually there when the shooter pulls out his gun and starts firing wildly, injuring a few people.  Dave's got good reaction time however, and quickly pulls out his own gun and shoots the shooter.  As soon as he does, he looks around the corner, and spots Bob, already with a gun out pointed right at himself....

The problem with envisioning what might happen at a mass shooting if someone has a gun, is that the person that started the shooting, and the person that shot them to save everyone, can look pretty similar when you're in a panic and don't have time to find out what's going on.  And unfortunately, in real life, there's no way to turn off friendly fire.

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that we should all just try to run and hide if someone's shooting up the building.  But thinking that adding more guns to a situation will make it less dangerous, instead of escalating the situation, seems naive.  Sure, it might work sometimes, but it might not.  And going back to my scenario, what if there were five gun-owners instead of only Dave and Bob?  How many would-be saviors would get shot because no one knows who the original shooter is?  And worse, how many people are going to get caught in the crossfire if that happens?

Retribution

If I might add something here, but let me confess am a lifelong gun owner and was a long time NRA member. But what gets lost in debates like this are some fundamental things that well turn the initial question kind of anecdotal.  Neither will side give an inch on the gun issue and it just breeds more extremism. I was having a discussion with a gun control advocate friend, well former friend. It was a reasonable talk but he just kept taking it farther until he reached a point where my general reaction was screw this and you as well while we are on the topic.

That is the reason the NRA and so many gun proponents will not give an inch. It never seems to stop and reasonable keeps inching into more restrictions.  Both sides have agendas the NRA obviously does and well the main stream media may claim they do not but funny how it has not been heavily covered that the “assault weapon” was not used in the Sandy Hook shooting. Stolen yes, used in the shooting no those were hand guns. So then with each side trying to justify their point we end up with debates like well the title of this thread.

I would like to see some compromise. There are things I would give on like background checks, a national registry so on. Problem is “assault weapon ban” if you read the laws really means semi auto ban and while we are at it assault weapon is a term that was made up for political reasons. The point is gun ownership is central to my life style. The government has no more right to discriminate against my life style than it does to say discriminate against homosexuality.  But the gun control crowd uses their anecdotes to keep justifying more and then I reach that screw it point when I will not give an inch.  Then we go back to things like the topic of this thread and the whole circle starts all over again.