How close will this election be?

[Will]

So I've been reading about the upcoming presidential election, and some of the forecasts people are making.  Watching all the publicity, you'd think it would be a pretty close one, but if I had to guess - I don't think it's going to be that close in the end.  Romney feels a lot like Kerry did; he's the best of a bad lot of candidates, none of whom ever really had what it took.  He's got no reliable message and an unlikable manner.  And, most importantly I think, he's trying to oust a sitting president. 

I thought this article in particular was pretty interesting and to the point, and more into the numbers of it.  It may be a left-leaning site, but numbers are numbers, and the guy they're talking about (Nate Silver) correctly called 50 out of 51 states the last time around.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/08/04/michael-tomasky-on-the-possible-coming-obama-landslide.html

Liberals are too nervous to think it, reporters too intent on a “down to the wire” narrative, and conservatives too furious and disbelieving, but it’s shaping up to be true: An extremely close election that on election night itself stands a surprisingly good chance of being not that close at all.

Surely it's not that hard to manufacture an illusion of a "dead heat" when you have half a billion dollars lying around, and a large portion of the media in your pocket.  Even the left-leaning media has a vested interest in making it close, since it makes for much better television, more viewers, and more advertising dollars.  We've gotten used to hearing what we want (or expect) to hear, but I think we're in for a surprise on election night.

Agree?  Disagree?

[Callie Del Noire]

I don't know.. with an estimated 93,000 voters in Ohio being disenfranchised and simliar numbers in other states that have had 'voter ID' laws passed that can take a big bite out of the voters.

[Oniya]

There's also the fact that 'popular vote' and 'electoral votes' are two vastly different things.  I think the popular vote might be fairly close overall, but a lot of the key states are heavily leaning towards Obama.  I'm probably going to be glued to the results this year - after I've put my own slip in the box.

[Will]

I don't know.. with an estimated 93,000 voters in Ohio being disenfranchised and simliar numbers in other states that have had 'voter ID' laws passed that can take a big bite out of the voters.

True, but that is a bit of a wild card.  It's impossible to say exactly how much of an effect those situations will have in their respective states, or whether the laws will even be standing by the time the election rolls around.  It's looking like it might be struck down in Pennsylvania, at least.

[Callie Del Noire]

True, but that is a bit of a wild card.  It's impossible to say exactly how much of an effect those situations will have in their respective states, or whether the laws will even be standing by the time the election rolls around.  It's looking like it might be struck down in Pennsylvania, at least.

And MAYBE Ohio.. I wish the media was a little more truthful in their reporting. The ratings is king outlook is killing impartiality in reporting. I really wish I could think of a way to fix it.

[Will]

And MAYBE Ohio.. I wish the media was a little more truthful in their reporting. The ratings is king outlook is killing impartiality in reporting. I really wish I could think of a way to fix it.

I do too, but people would rather root for the home team than hear the truth.  So the problem goes beyond the business itself, and I'm not sure how you fix that.

[Callie Del Noire]

I do too, but people would rather root for the home team than hear the truth.  So the problem goes beyond the business itself, and I'm not sure how you fix that.

You know.. just to see some of the Fox pundits blow their valves.. I'd wish they'd reinstate the fairness doctrine. :D

[Beguile's Mistress]

The way to fix it is to contact sponsors.  That is what hurt Limbaugh and I think it had an effect on Glenn Beck, too.  You organize letter writing campaigns to tell sponsors that if they pay for ads on the slanted news shows.  It works if enough people do it.

[Valerian]

Speaking of electoral versus popular votes:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/13/ron-paul-electoral-college_n_1880172.html

Basically, there are three Republican appointees to the Electoral College who are making noises about not voting for Romney, no matter what.  One has resigned, which means there's going to be a scramble to replace her with a diehard Romney fan.

They're primarily unhappy because they like Ron Paul and think he never got a fair chance, but whatever the reason, Romney's going to have to worry about that, too.  The electoral college isn't required to go along with the popular vote, but with only a few rare exceptions, they always have.  If more than one person defects, that would not only set a record, it might cost Romney the election, if it is close.

I'm hopeful that it won't be particularly close, but I'm afraid to be too sure.  I just hope our wretched attorney general doesn't manage to get Wisconsin's voter ID laws -- which have already been blocked twice -- back up and running for November.

[Oniya]

It's not that I think that the electoral reps will vote against the popular vote - it has more to do with the way the electoral college works.  A few states (Maine?) have it so that the electoral reps can split it proportionally, but in most states, if you carry 51% of the popular vote, you get 100% of the electoral college votes.  Nail a majority in enough states to get the 270 votes needed to win, and even if 100% of the population of the remaining states votes the other way, it's 'Hail to the Chief, baby'.

[Valerian]

Oh, yes, I didn't think that was what you were referring to, necessarily, but your mention of the electoral college reminded me of that article, which I happened across earlier.  Someone had posted a map on another site based on the projections Will linked to above, and I went hunting for more info.  The existence of such diehard Ron Paul supporters was an interesting surprise.   ::)

[Oniya]

Heh - and here I focused on the comment about the EC not being required to go with the popular vote.  Oh well, quick refresher on how the elections work for anyone interested.  :D

I'm not particularly surprised at the diehard RP supporters, though.  They seem to be quite vocal in their support every time I've seen them on any of the political pages I've visited.

[Callie Del Noire]

Oh, yes, I didn't think that was what you were referring to, necessarily, but your mention of the electoral college reminded me of that article, which I happened across earlier.  Someone had posted a map on another site based on the projections Will linked to above, and I went hunting for more info.  The existence of such diehard Ron Paul supporters was an interesting surprise.   ::)

Well, given that this is about the only way they can be taken seriously by the Party Leadership. The Paul supporters have been smirked at, ignored and marginalized over the last four years. Not all of them would have quietly walked away between elections. Some of them would have looked for leverage this time around, the GOP can't cover all angles all the time.

[BCdan]

Just wanted to also mention that Gary Johnson has something like 4.3% according to some polls.  Whoever gets elected will likely get under 50% of the vote no matter what. 

If Gary Johnson had the name recognition of Ron Paul, he would probably be pushing over 15% and might have made it into the debates unless the goal post suddenly moved. 

[Oniya]

You're talking popular vote there.  Unless Gary Johnson can get enough to carry one state (unless his base is in one of those states that can split their electoral vote), those 4.3% will only show up on the local news.

I wouldn't be overly surprised if the Paulites did a write-in campaign - that could get interesting at the electoral level, given the article that Valerian linked earlier.

[Teo Torriatte]

Before the conventions and the last week where Romney has really stepped in it(for the latest time, anyway), I would have said it was pretty close.

Now... it's not gonna be a landslide(unless you ask MSNBC's Melissa Harris Perry), but I think Obama has a comfy lead and Romney would have to pull out a serious rabbit from his hat to win it.

[Callie Del Noire]

Before the conventions and the last week where Romney has really stepped in it(for the latest time, anyway), I would have said it was pretty close.

Now... it's not gonna be a landslide(unless you ask MSNBC's Melissa Harris Perry), but I think Obama has a comfy lead and Romney would have to pull out a serious rabbit from his hat to win it.

Thing is. .. Thanks to Citzens Untited he has a solid 'wolf pack' of SuperPacs that can outspend any campaign and that is what they are doing. Outside groups have spent so much on this election so far that the total out totals what.. The last four national elections?