The Curse of Millersborough -- Villagers Win!

[Lynnie]

I shall keep my vote of Ket.

[yugi006]

While I believe Ket is an easy target for the vampires I also believe that the Constable knows this and would have the sense to protect her so the vampires would choose someone else but it is just a probability. I'm not fully certain of that. Ill see what else she does before voting for her. For now my vote is for Mintprincess.

[Ket]

What? That's not suspicious at all. You should feel empathy after hearing that if nothing else. This just bolsters my vote against you.

How is it not suspicious? There is only one singular person who has anyone to protect, other than themselves. The minion's sole goal is to help the vampires, and part of that goal is to protect them from getting lynched.

Villagers want to protect each other, sure, but they do that as a group.

Vote for my death all you want. If you're nothing but a mere villager, you will deeply regret it.

[Mintprincess]

Blythe, Yugi — you guys have no reason for vote me and seriously I’m a villager.  I have zero to offer right now to be honest. I haven’t had and  chance to talk to anyone.  I’m not special.  But I’m not a vampire. 

I’m leaning to the camp of Blythe that Rummy is almost being too suspicious.  No one else had done anything to strike me as someone I should vote for. 

Remi do we have deadline?

[NightOwl35]

Hmmm...

So I'm wondering why people think Ket is the best person to vote for? Honestly she'd be the first person I'd look at as the Vampire Hunter, since she was voted as Mayor/Sheriff. Look at her night 1 to make sure she's on team town, and again if no attacks happened the previous night to make sure she wasn't changed (and any subsequent nights without a death as Dracula's ability is a once per game ability). This doesn't take into account that she COULD be the Minion, however the Minion doesn't know the vampires and they don't know the Minion so it doesn't matter too much.

Beyond that, it's incredibly dangerous for any of the roles to come out and say that they are a special role. The sole reason for this is that the Constable not only protects the person but blocks them from their action as well. This means if the Vampire Hunter comes out with information, the Constable can protect them but then the Vampire Hunter is no longer able to garner information. And all it would take is one mistake from the Constable to let the Vampires know that they're not constantly protecting the Vampire Hunter.

Anyways, that's all assuming Dracula didn't get lucky and turn one of our special roles.

I personally think that's what's going to make this game an interesting one. It's not as easy to let information go in public so playing in secret via PMs becomes all the more important.

With that all out of the way, we don't seem to have any information. If we do, I'm not aware of it. So I'm just going to leave it up to a random number generator to figure out who to vote for, also just for the reason that I don't want to accidentally hold the game up if a deadline occurs.

I got... Lynnie. No real reason behind the vote, as is the case for most people it seems.

[Scott]

Rummy

[Remiel]

Votes So Far:

Ket: 3 (Imogen, Rummy, Lynnie)
Mintprincess: 2 (Blythe, Yugi)
Rummy Tum Tum: 2 (Ket, Scott)
Imogen: 1 (Trieste)
Lynnie: 1 (NightOwl)

Yet to Vote: Madame Professor, Mintprincess, SithLord

[Remiel]

Remi do we have deadline?

Let's go with noon on Tuesday the 16th, or until everyone has voted and discussion seems to have stopped, whichever comes first.

[yugi006]

Blythe, Yugi — you guys have no reason for vote me and seriously I’m a villager.  I have zero to offer right now to be honest. I haven’t had and  chance to talk to anyone.  I’m not special.  But I’m not a vampire. 

I’m leaning to the camp of Blythe that Rummy is almost being too suspicious.  No one else had done anything to strike me as someone I should vote for. 

Remi do we have deadline?

What reason do we have to vote for anyone at this point besides Rummy? Mine is random and change if I get more information.

[Rummy Tum Tum]

I get that my questioning came off as more suspicious than I hoped, but I'm a Citizen with nothing better to do than take in information and vote. With no information, all we do is randomly lynch a person on the first vote, and I find that ridiculous. The constable coming out was a bad call, but some information from somewhere would be great.

[Blythe]

Also, I'm going to be super bold here.

Constable, whoever you are, I need your help. You can decide if you trust me or not--that's up to you. If you do, please contact me privately. If you don't, I understand. But I have information for you. But whatever you do, please do not reveal yourself in-thread; you must be kept safe.

[Blythe]

In addition, I think we are all going about voting the wrong way. I have an idea.

The one way we have to garner additional information during a Day Phase this early on is by testing our Mayor. I strongly suggest we try to create a tiebreaker situation to see what Ket does. Ideally, the tie would be between two people who are not Ket, because anyone would break a tie to save themselves, citizen or vampire.

[Rummy Tum Tum]

A desperate plan, but that's all we have. I hereby change my vote to Lynnie

[Remiel]

Votes So Far:

Ket: 2 (Imogen, Lynnie)
Mintprincess: 2 (Blythe, Yugi)
Rummy Tum Tum: 2 (Ket, Scott)
Lynnie: 2 (NightOwl, Rummy)
Imogen: 1 (Trieste)


Yet to Vote: Madame Professor, Mintprincess, SithLord

[SithLordOfSnark]

The tie breaker situation sounds fair, therefore my vote is for Imogen.

[Lynnie]

If I must die to prove my innocence then die I shall, but know this I am nothing more than a villager.

[Imogen]

In addition, I think we are all going about voting the wrong way. I have an idea.

The one way we have to garner additional information during a Day Phase this early on is by testing our Mayor. I strongly suggest we try to create a tiebreaker situation to see what Ket does. Ideally, the tie would be between two people who are not Ket, because anyone would break a tie to save themselves, citizen or vampire.

You realize that this is throwing better odds at the vampires, right?

If the Vampires didn't turn anyone, and there are still 2:

The odds of Ket picking a vampire = 15,6%, because:
- We have a 0% chance that a vampire dies if Ket is a vampire (16,6% chance)
- We have an 18,8% chance that Ket will pick a vampire if they have to choose blindly (83,3%  chance that they are a villager, minion or scientist)

Of this 15,6% there is a chance that they are the minion or the mad scientist and thus unreliable, which means that the odds that Ket is a villager who will pick a vampire is ONLY 12, 48%.

In return, we give to the vampires:

a. a 16,6% chance for 100% free kill with no suspicions attached (There is a 16,6% chance Ket is a vampire)
b. a 83,3% chance we learn nothing when Ket picks a villager (because with those kind of horrible odds, you can't blame someone for choosing wrong - also, see a.)

In comparison, if we do not follow Blythe's idea, the odds that the playerbase as a whole by blind luck selects a vampire for lynching  = 13,8%

---

The numbers get worse if the vampires turned one of us. In that case, there is a 16.72% chance of Ket being a villager if they guess right. And a 25% (!!!) chance for them at a 98,2% of a free kill (there is a 1.8% chance the only choices the Mayor gets are both vampires). 

In the case of 3 vampires roaming our beautiful village, the odds that we, as a whole, lynch a vampire are 18.75%

Summary: Bad idea. Let's not do this.

[Lynnie]

I feel like the first day is the hardest. It is almost always blind luck. All of us could say we are nothing more than villagers then we have learned nothing. The vampires always have it easier at the beginning. Also I agree with Imogen that this is probably a very bad idea.

[Remiel]

Votes So Far:

Ket: 2 (Imogen, Lynnie)
Mintprincess: 2 (Blythe, Yugi)
Rummy Tum Tum: 2 (Ket, Scott)
Lynnie: 2 (NightOwl, Rummy)
Imogen: 2 (Trieste, SithLord)


Yet to Vote: Madame Professor, Mintprincess

[Ket]

You are really out for my blood, Imogen. Yet you've not tried to assure anyone that you have absolutely nothing to gain by my death.

[Imogen]

You are really out for my blood, Imogen. Yet you've not tried to assure anyone that you have absolutely nothing to gain by my death.

Not you, Ket. These are just the numbers that apply when the Mayor has to break a tie in this particular case. If anyone else had to make the decision Blythe is advocating, the numbers would be exactly the same.

My calculation was aimed to demonstrate that Blythe's suggestion of tie breaking isn't in our favor. The same odds of being a vampire that apply to you, apply to everyone else as well, but IF a vampire is allowed to make a choice based on information the villagers do not have, that's a relatively high chance we're handing the vampires a free murder.

Again, the numbers would remain the same if someone else had to break the tie. I even mentioned that there is no reason to condemn the Mayor in case of voting for a villager with those abysmally bad odds you are facing if you are one of us.

I will stress that those numbers only indicate that Blythe's suggestion is - if we calculate the odds - not attractive. They do not prove or disprove anyone's allegiance. Not yours and not anyone elses either.  Following Blythe's suggestion just makes our chances worse, that's all.

[Mintprincess]

I'm not sure I completely agree with Imogen.   

Yes, I do agree that the odds of getting a vampire on the lynch are low no matter how we do it however, if Ket is NOT a vampire, that leaves 2/11 or 3/11 people that are vampires and a 18% or 27% chance that one of them will be lynched IF we pick at random.  Lynching the minion, even if they aren't a vampire STILL helps our team in some ways, because the minion will be actively trying to find and protect the vampires.  Thus, adding them as a role that is helpful to lynch and we're at 3/11 or 4/11, 27% or 36%.

Now if Ket isn't a vampire, and we tie up two villagers it doesn't matter.  The odds of us picking two villagers (if for math we include the Mad scientist as a villager and the minion as not) is 8/11 * 7/10 if we have 2 vampires or 7/11 * 6/10 if we have three, which is 51% or 38%.  Assuming a 50/50 chance of Ket picking the right role, and if you take 49% chance we have one of each * 50% chance of getting the vampire and it's ~25% to get a vampire/minion or ~31% if Ket is NOT a vampire and one was turned. 

So if someone was turned the odds actually go up, as long as she isn't on that team.   Her being on that team changes everything with the odds.  If Ket is a vampire, and we remove her from the random picking, our odds of randomly picking a villager also go up.   That goes back to the 2/11 or 3/11 chance to randomly pick someone  on team vampire and 18% or 27%. If Ket is a vampire/minion she could still also kill one of the people on her team, but the odds of that drop a lot as well. 

I did a bunch of math and I'm not sure it really means anything at this point in the game.  I don't really believe that it makes our chances better or worse.  I also don't believe it will definitively tell us anything about Ket given that if she's a villager she's picking as blind as we are.

Let's be honest, we're probably going to lynch a villager, we can hope we don't lynch a special role.   

I don't think Imogen's statements are out to get Ket either - I'm not sure why you read it that way Ket.  She was basically trying to say that testing you was a moot point regardless of your allegiance and making assumptions that you're good/bad based on the vote would be difficult.

Regardless, I'd rather NOT lynch the mayor out the gate. I'd rather the person who can look at allegiances check them in the night and guide us as best they can.

So my vote is going to be for Lynnie.  If you wanna do the tie thing, then I've helped.  But my reason for picking her is that Ket was her mayor choice and immediately her lynch choice and while that means probably nothing, one would expect a little support for the person they put in office when we have absolutely nothing to go by and little discussion of yet.

[Remiel]

Votes So Far:

Lynnie: 3 (NightOwl, Rummy, Mintprincess)
Ket: 2 (Imogen, Lynnie)
Mintprincess: 2 (Blythe, Yugi)
Rummy Tum Tum: 2 (Ket, Scott)
Imogen: 2 (Trieste, SithLord)


Yet to Vote: Madame Professor

Approximately 48 hours left until the sun sets and someone must be staked!

[Imogen]

You are not wrong, Mint! The odds of catching a baddie, both for the Mayor (if innocent) and for the villagers, go up if their numbers increase. As does the number of the Mayor being one of the bad guys. Still, the odds remain unfavorable either way, and we likely will not be any wiser than before if we pick the tie break option.

That said, I am willing to remove the pressure from Ket so that IF this vote ends in a tie, they won't be forced to choose between themselves and one other, which is no choice at all. If that happens, what little we might have learned would be moot, as Ket wouldn't have had a real choice.

For that reason, I will remove my vote from Ket, but I am undecided where to place it.

[Lynnie]

I agree with Imogen, I too also remove my vote from Ket