He's dead?!

[Bayushi]

CNN reports that Kim Jong Il of the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea has died.

This could be a really good thing, or a horrifically BAD thing, depending on who comes to power with the death.

[elone]

Probably a good thing. Most likely his son will be next in line, I seem to remember that from past stories. For the sake of the North Korean people, I sure hope the next one isn't as bad.

[Revolverman]

My guess, the Son is going to be Massive, and throbbing, just like his dad.

[Callie Del Noire]

Question is.. will the generals that feared his father.. fear him enough to obey?

[gaggedLouise]

Kim is dead; long live Kim!

The son seemed inexperienced when he 'came out' in public as successor for the first time about two years ago. He wasn't the first choice, the old man only picked him after his other sons had proved unsuitable - one of them going off on a tangent to Japan, using a forged passport, aiming to visit the Tokyo Disneyland - so Kim Jong-un was rather the last option if they wanted to keep the realm in the family (a female Great Leader & Commander was absolutely impossible of course).

I don't think this guy will be respected by the military in the long term. They might want to use him as a puppet for some time though.

[Scribbles]

Nando's: Last dictator standing

Just a cute video I received in the mail. Thought it might be worth sharing.  :-)

I'm not sure I expect much to change as it feels as if the populace have grudgingly accepted their situation. The most we can probably expect are a few generals/leaders rocking the boat unless China decides to throw its weight behind Jong-Un.

[Zakharra]

 Oh thank the goddess he's dead.   /sigh  I hope his successor is more reasonable and willing to do less grandstanding than Kim Jong ill

[Chris Brady]

Zahkerra, no such luck.  His successor is his own son.  Which most likely means he'll be a moron.  And worse, as a friend pointed out, he's probably never been said no to.  And now he's been given power to an entire country?

[OldSchoolGamer]

I think we'll likely have to wait many years before the full ramifications of this spin out.  I think in the short term we'll see "business as usual."  With most autocracies like North Korea, the "Glorious Leader" is too busy getting laid and living his eccentric bizarro Michael Jackson-esque life to pay too much attention to affairs of state.  I'm sure there's a coterie of advisers, henchmen, generals and civil servants who pretty much got used to handling the business of the day on their own, and they're going to go on doing so.

[Callie Del Noire]

I think we'll likely have to wait many years before the full ramifications of this spin out.  I think in the short term we'll see "business as usual."  With most autocracies like North Korea, the "Glorious Leader" is too busy getting laid and living his eccentric bizarro Michael Jackson-esque life to pay too much attention to affairs of state.  I'm sure there's a coterie of advisers, henchmen, generals and civil servants who pretty much got used to handling the business of the day on their own, and they're going to go on doing so.

I think we'll see some of the 'old guard' vanish as the boy puts those he couldn't touch in their place (6 feet underground) and such. It took 3 years for his father to consolidate power, he will most likely be doing the same. A lot depends on his uncle and how behind him that guy is.

[meikle]

I wonder how likely it is that his heart attack was indeed a natural cause and not

something more sinister

[gaggedLouise]

I wonder how likely it is that his heart attack was indeed a natural cause and not

something more sinister

Well, the man had a heart attack one or two years ago and he slipped off public view since then, so it could be quite natural. But there were certainly people who were looking to speed it up. When there was a huge explosion at a railyard some years ago - one of the biggest non-nuclear blasts anywhere since WW2 - there were persistent rumours that it had been an attempt to kill him. Kim's train had passed through the station only an hour or so earlier.

[Callie Del Noire]

I wonder how likely it is that his heart attack was indeed a natural cause and not

something more sinister

The man was a MAJOR booze hound, found of double malt supposedly and I believe he smoked and did a lot of other less than healthy things. He drank something like a fifth or more a day. EVERYDAY.

[Zeitgeist]

There is often talk among talking heads, and elsewhere too I'd presume about North Korea's military, and how prodigious and large it is. At the same time there is often talk about just how little we know of North Korea. An opaque regime is often one of the descriptors.

Perhaps they do have a large army. I'm skeptical however. Given the number of years they've been ostracized from the world, and how they've struggled to even feed their people, I have to wonder just now modern and capable their military is. So what if it is 'large' by numbers and pieces of artillery. Iraq at the time of the first Gulf War had the third largest army. How'd that work for them?

It goes without saying any one Western military serviceman is likely worth 8 or 10 of North Korea's. What is the state of their Air Force, and what is it's capability? Just how modern is their equipment? We can only guess at these things, but I wouldn't be the least surprised if we were talking 50s-60s era military hardware.

Now, that's not to say we should not be concerned, nor underestimate them. That would be foolish. Yes, they do have some nuclear capability. Do they have an effective, reliable delivery system?

The biggest concerns would be refugees, and wild flailing of their military popping off missiles into South Korea and perhaps Japan too. These things are not to be dismissed by any means. I just wonder though.

[Callie Del Noire]

It goes without saying any one Western military serviceman is likely worth 8 or 10 of North Korea's. What is the state of their Air Force, and what is it's capability? Just how modern is their equipment? We can only guess at these things, but I wouldn't be the least surprised if we were talking 50s-60s era military hardware.

Now, that's not to say we should not be concerned, nor underestimate them. That would be foolish. Yes, they do have some nuclear capability. Do they have an effective, reliable delivery system?

The biggest concerns would be refugees, and wild flailing of their military popping off missiles into South Korea and perhaps Japan too. These things are not to be dismissed by any means. I just wonder though.

Where will we get these 'men'? Downsizing the military has left us without manpower to do it. Add in the big intangible. China.

Nothing will get done by US or South Korea without an understanding of what China wants.  Add in there are units of artillery aimed at South Korean cities NOW. Dead Zeroed. We're talking THOUSANDS of injuries and fatalities. And they have the materials for chemical, biological or 'dirty' shells.

They have spent something like the last SIX decades being told it's them vs the world. Sure.. it will be over in a week or so. Unlike Iraq we dont have a clear image of how the general population will react to retaliation. They have spent DECADES making them think the world at large is out to get them.

I am quite sure that we'll 'win' in the end. But the butcher bill will be a hell of a lot nastier to the South Koreans and Japanese than we'll like.

[Zeitgeist]

Where will we get these 'men'? Downsizing the military has left us without manpower to do it. Add in the big intangible. China.

Nothing will get done by US or South Korea without an understanding of what China wants.  Add in there are units of artillery aimed at South Korean cities NOW. Dead Zeroed. We're talking THOUSANDS of injuries and fatalities. And they have the materials for chemical, biological or 'dirty' shells.

They have spent something like the last SIX decades being told it's them vs the world. Sure.. it will be over in a week or so. Unlike Iraq we dont have a clear image of how the general population will react to retaliation. They have spent DECADES making them think the world at large is out to get them.

I am quite sure that we'll 'win' in the end. But the butcher bill will be a hell of a lot nastier to the South Koreans and Japanese than we'll like.

Callie, I don't disagree with you so much. I'd only suggest that war and measuring its outcome is no longer figured by counting boots. We wouldn't occupy NK in any sense of the word, and any measure of boots needed, South Korea could provide.

I have little doubt we would have air superiority in quick fashion. We could rapidly take out artillery units with a plethora of GPS guided munitions and more.

I don't suggest it would be bloodless, or easy, but the outcome would be rather preordained in short fashion.

You're right about China of course. They seem to be the only ones with the ability to prevent such an situation. 

[Callie Del Noire]

Callie, I don't disagree with you so much. I'd only suggest that war and measuring its outcome is no longer figured by counting boots. We wouldn't occupy NK in any sense of the word, and any measure of boots needed, South Korea could provide.

I have little doubt we would have air superiority in quick fashion. We could rapidly take out artillery units with a plethora of GPS guided munitions and more.

I don't suggest it would be bloodless, or easy, but the outcome would be rather preordained in short fashion.

You're right about China of course. They seem to be the only ones with the ability to prevent such an situation.

We won't move first. And the moment ANYTHING heads towards the DMZ or first unit goes boom.. South Korea and Japan will pay for it.

As much as I hate to say it, right now we need to back the fuck off and let the South Koreans and China make the first move.

Because we do not have the diplomatic karma anymore to do anything but fuck this up. We should follow South Korea's lead and try to work things with China, which we can do.

And to be honest.. in the end, it will be the South Koreans who pay the butcher's bill. Them and Japan. If I was those two countries leadership, I'd quietly sit down together and come up with a reunification plan that will let them defuse this situation and rebuild the country to the north. Either as a unifed Korea (which I don't see the Chinese going for) or a friendly more open ally to the North.

I give them.. maybe five to ten years before they fold under the weight of their finacial collapse. I just wonder how many more North Koreans will starve to death before then.

[Google]

Stationed on a base not far from NK, gotta say this is making me and my coworkers a tad nervous... we know KJI, we could predict him... the son is an unknown and we dislike unknowns.

[sinfultictac]

I have a couple of buddies in the milirty and honestly I worry about them. After I heard this, it was like full panic mode for me.