War: Russia vs. Ukraine?

[Mechelle]

Yes, it's familiar, and, as Humble Scribe said, it's also familiar from Hitler's moves into Austria and the Sudetenland.

The other thing is that these new so-called independent, sovereign states don't actually control all the territory they claim, so that's another excuse for Putin to invade to "protect" people.

From my British perspective, I would hope that we can apply the strongest sanctions against Russian oligarchs who have put so much money into London, which has intensified our housing crisis. Boris Johnson is hosting a COBRA meeting at 6.30 tomorrow morning, and, to give him credit for once, he has been quite strong on this. The far right and far left, however, both inevitably come forward to support Putin.

Finally, I have not heard the Putin statement, but I have read it was quite rambling, as well as being ignorant of history (Ukraine did fight for independence in 1917, rather than being created by Lenin, for example). Perhaps this is a desperate attempt to maintain his power while he declines personally, not that that helps Ukraine.

[Lustful Bride]

Wasn't sure if I should post this here or in the regular News Thread, but China accidentally leaked its own censorship rules on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-chinese-news-outlet-accidentally-leaked-its-own-censorship-instructions-on-russia-ukraine-coverage-report/ar-AAUaWmm?ocid=msedgntp

[Mechelle]

My earlier praise for Boris Johnson was, unsurprisingly, misplaced.  Despite all his strong rhetoric, sanctions have only  been applied against a small number of Putin associates. The Conservative Party have accepted large donations from Russian oligarchs, and they have been granted time to remove their assets from the country, before any stricter sanctions, which have been warned, are applied.

In contrast, Germany have taken much stronger action than expected., halting the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

[Lustful Bride]

Double Posted from News Thread.

Russia has Invaded Ukraine. Reports are sketchy. Kyiv may have been hit and Russian Paratroopers may control the airport. Cluster bombs have hit the city, missiles have been flying and some Russian Jets have been shot down. (But this is all speculation I'm hearing elsewhere).

CNN has some updates.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-23-22/index.html


God Help Ukraine.

[Beorning]

Putin has issued a statement how Russia cannot tolerate the "threat" that Ukraine poses and has to defend Russians from the genocide apparently taking place in Donbas (hint: there is no genocide going on). He also stated that the Russian "special operation" is going to "demilitarize" and "de-Nazify" Ukraine.

BTW. Only yesterday, the spokeswoman of Russian Ministry of Foreign affairs claimed that Russia's will absolutely not progress beyond the territories already controlled by the separatists...

Here's Putin's Russia for you, Western Europe. I honestly hope you're kicking yourself for trusting him all these years. WE WARNED YOU.

[Leon Weber]

Putin: We're going to De-Nazify Ukraine

Also Putin: *has been funding the Azov Battallion for years?*

This whole fucking thing is a shit show and I hope the NATO meeting tomorrow has some effect

[Leon Weber]

For anyone wondering this is a rough layout of the current Russian advancement into Ukraine, this map mostly charts out the advancement of ground forces as Russian Air Forces have been dropping bombs on Kyiv and two KA-52's NATO Designation "Hokum" Helicopters have been shot down. Word is the Russian advance has slowed down but who knowsd how long that will last.

[Beorning]

I just head a radio interview (not sure with whom - some professor with ties to Ukraine, I think) that made a chilling claim: that many people that are influential in Ukrainian pro-independence movements have been warned by Western intelligence agencies to get out of the country. It seems that Russian forces have a long list of Ukrainian independence activist to detain or even outright kill...

Remember how, earlier in the thread, I got scolded by making comparisons between Putin and Hitler? Well, if the above is true, then it means Putin is repeating Hitler's subjugation tactics...

(also, it'd be very similar to the WW2 era's Katyń massacre - which was perpetrated by USSR, even though Putin's government kept denying that... even after the earlier Yeltsin administration confirmed that yes, it was done by the Soviets, not the Nazis...)

[Leon Weber]

I think the problem is that everyone compares every atrocity with the Nazis which distracts from the current conversation about current issues.

[Thufir Hawat]

In retrospect, it was pretty fucking obvious. But I admit even I didn't expect it to get to this stage this year... (My prediction was for 2025).
Why was it obvious?
Putin just said that "other countries"* have not budged a millimeter from their positions while negotiating with Russia on the European security. No, I don't think he counts the counter-offer of the USA for a real offer, because his government basically said it only addresses secondary issues.
"Honestly, I was even amazed. Come on, they didn't budge a millimeter, not on a single ussue!"

Curiously enough, what the West seems to not understand is that when talking with Russia, you have to look not only on what was said, but also on what was NOT said!
"Only addresses secondary issues" means "our primary issues are left unresolved", people! Don't they have anyone who understands that in the State Department? Or did they choose to ignore the warning?
Possibly because it's the right of the Ukrainian state to choose its own path?
If so, it has to be reminded that experts have stated time and time again that Putin is a realpolitik guy. And you know what doesn't exist as a term in realpolitik?
"Right(s)" >:).

BTW, here's another warning Putin just dropped. He said more or less that Russia is part of the global economy, of course they don't plan to hurt a system that we're participating in.
Now, guess what that means for the plans to "cut Russia off from the global economy" via sanctions 8-)?

*A relatively poor translation of "za rubejom", but the best I can find, short of "those foreigners".

[Vekseid]

There is a mountain of disinfo coming out of both Ukranian and Russian sources in this conflict, naturally. It's hard to know what can be trusted. Some Ukranian footage is cribbed from Syria, however this may be a fallback to prevent revealing their own positions.

There are credible reports of at least two Russian planes being shot down as of several hours ago, while the Ukranians of course claim to have shot down more. Still, it would appear that Russia isn't able to achieve air supremacy yet.

I've heard some claims Ukrainian forces have recaptured Hostomel, despite an earlier retraction. A Russian platoon surrendered, claiming they didn't know they were there to kill Ukrainians.

I have to wonder if Putin thought his forces would be greeted the way American forces were in Iraq and Afghanistan. That is, as an enemy you can't hope to fight directly.

Ukraine's position in defending themselves as a coordinated state is obviously dire, but I am not getting the impression the conflict is as one-sided as analysts have been leading us to believe.

My earlier praise for Boris Johnson was, unsurprisingly, misplaced.  Despite all his strong rhetoric, sanctions have only  been applied against a small number of Putin associates. The Conservative Party have accepted large donations from Russian oligarchs, and they have been granted time to remove their assets from the country, before any stricter sanctions, which have been warned, are applied.

In contrast, Germany have taken much stronger action than expected., halting the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

I wouldn't praise Germany so soon, they're one of the key states holding up kicking Russia out of SWIFT. Italy, Hungary, and Germany are worried about their gas, apparently.

[Leon Weber]

Its incredible what a people can do when their backs are up against a wall, footage from Kyiv has been rampant as dog fighting has been occurring all over the city for most of the day.

And while of course when you look at raw military numbers Russia has the overwhelming advantage its important to know that fighting defensively is far easier than fighting offensively and Ukraine is on the defensive and has been preparing for this exact moment almost since the moment they gained independence as a state.

[Humble Scribe]

Word is the Russian advance has slowed down but who knowsd how long that will last.

The first few hours are 'advance to contact'. The key is what happens once the fighting proper starts, as it has now. It sounds like the Russians have already seized major objectives like the bridges over the Dneiper River in the south, but seem to have suffered a reverse over Hostomel airfield NW of Kyiv, although they are in the outskirts of Kharkiv. The crunch comes now - when they hit dug-in troops or, as in the case of the airfield, Ukrainian counterattacks. The Russians have overwhelming artillery and probable air superiority, but it's clearly not a done deal. On the other hand, Ukraine didn't even sign off on full mobilisation before the invasion began, presumably so as not to offer a pretext to the Russians, which makes all the talk about reservists and volunteers moot - assembling them at barracks, organising them, equipping them, forming them into units and getting them to the fighting takes too much time, and modern wars of maneuver are usually over very quickly. But taking cities in the teeth of determined resistance is hard and soaks up lots of troops. I assume that the US is feeding satellite and other info to Ukraine. Even so, I still find it hard to believe that Ukraine can win this.

But I still don't see Putin's end game, though. Take the east of the country? (The east of Ukraine has most of its industry and petrochemical resources). I don't think it's worth the pain Russia will get, but it really seems to be a key point of principle for Putin. People don't always make the most rational decisions for their country (I mean, if you showed Admiral Tojo what Japan would look like in 1945, would he still have ordered Pearl Harbour?).

[Oniya]

I think the problem is that everyone compares every atrocity with the Nazis which distracts from the current conversation about current issues.

Even the coiner of 'Godwin's Law' had to come out and say 'It's okay to use it in this situation' when people were talking about right-wingers waving actual swastikas,

[Leon Weber]

Even the coiner of 'Godwin's Law' had to come out and say 'It's okay to use it in this situation' when people were talking about right-wingers waving actual swastikas,

No you're absolutely right, I'm not saying that it was inappropriate to use. I was just saying that it can feel like an easy fall back when discussing current issues rather than dealing with the atrocity in front of our faces we just reference the atrocities of the past.

[Oniya]

I'm not saying it was inappropriate either.  It's more of a reason why some people (at least, I know it's true for me) might have seen the parallels but not actually posted the stuff online anywhere.  Those of us that stayed awake during classes have been getting flashbacks to World History for the past six years on various issues.

[Beorning]

A Russian platoon surrendered, claiming they didn't know they were there to kill Ukrainians.

It's also worth noting that this war is not universally supported by the Russians. According to what I've read, there were anti-war protests in over 50 Russian towns and cities today, with around 1700 people being arrested for participating in them. There were also anti-war declarations by multiple Russian public figures (like sportspeople etc.) - and I've heard that the Russian social media chatter has many people saying they are ashamed by what is happening.

I have to wonder if Putin thought his forces would be greeted the way American forces were in Iraq and Afghanistan. That is, as an enemy you can't hope to fight directly.

I've heard some military experts debating today whether Putin will really decide to storm Kyiv. Because if he did so, the urban fighting could get really brutal there - it's not just the Ukrainian military in the city, it's also civilian volunteers who are arming themselves and seem ready to fight in case of a siege.

But I still don't see Putin's end game, though. Take the east of the country? (The east of Ukraine has most of its industry and petrochemical resources). I don't think it's worth the pain Russia will get, but it really seems to be a key point of principle for Putin. People don't always make the most rational decisions for their country (I mean, if you showed Admiral Tojo what Japan would look like in 1945, would he still have ordered Pearl Harbour?).

The consensus here is that Putin is probably not simply going for some Ukrainian territory (i.e. the breakaway "republics"). His endgame could be dismantling the current Ukrainian government and installing some puppets of his there. The eastern parts of Ukraine would be assimilated into Russia and the western parts would become a vassalized state similar to Belarus.

[Leon Weber]

I'm not saying it was inappropriate either.  It's more of a reason why some people (at least, I know it's true for me) might have seen the parallels but not actually posted the stuff online anywhere.  Those of us that stayed awake during classes have been getting flashbacks to World History for the past six years on various issues.

Yeah im not a big fan of the idea that history repeats itself

But it sure does fucking Echo

[Vekseid]

The first few hours are 'advance to contact'. The key is what happens once the fighting proper starts, as it has now. It sounds like the Russians have already seized major objectives like the bridges over the Dneiper River in the south, but seem to have suffered a reverse over Hostomel airfield NW of Kyiv, although they are in the outskirts of Kharkiv. The crunch comes now - when they hit dug-in troops or, as in the case of the airfield, Ukrainian counterattacks. The Russians have overwhelming artillery and probable air superiority, but it's clearly not a done deal. On the other hand, Ukraine didn't even sign off on full mobilisation before the invasion began, presumably so as not to offer a pretext to the Russians, which makes all the talk about reservists and volunteers moot - assembling them at barracks, organising them, equipping them, forming them into units and getting them to the fighting takes too much time, and modern wars of maneuver are usually over very quickly. But taking cities in the teeth of determined resistance is hard and soaks up lots of troops. I assume that the US is feeding satellite and other info to Ukraine. Even so, I still find it hard to believe that Ukraine can win this.

One thing that has become quickly apparent is that the American disinformation machine (to downplay our capabilities, highlight our flaws, and make it seem like everything over here is fucked) did its job during the Trump era. Biden seemed to have very accurate information about Putin's plans and intent, to the point where he may have bought Ukraine a full week just by calling out said planning. Meanwhile the Russians have horrible opsec on top of all of this. The movements of many Russian forces both within and outside of Ukraine are public knowledge.

Meanwhile, where is Russia's electronic warfare? They supposedly had the most advanced in the world - where is it? It's like Russia's most advanced capabilities are actively being held back. But why let your enemy retain centralized command and control if disrupting it is within your capabilities? Something may have already happened here that we don't yet know about.

On the other side, what information we have of Ukrainian movements is largely after the fact. This presents a scenario where Ukraine can concentrate and disperse forces as needed for key pitched battles. Meanwhile, Russian morale is reportedly terrible and getting worse.

Further, Russia is in a very difficult situation logistically, and this was always going to be the case. All of this mechanization needs mechanics, equipment, and time. This is going to place a serious strain on their advantages as stuff breaks down.

While it is dire, I would not describe Ukraine's position as unwinnable.

But I still don't see Putin's end game, though. Take the east of the country? (The east of Ukraine has most of its industry and petrochemical resources). I don't think it's worth the pain Russia will get, but it really seems to be a key point of principle for Putin. People don't always make the most rational decisions for their country (I mean, if you showed Admiral Tojo what Japan would look like in 1945, would he still have ordered Pearl Harbour?).

Trying to think of this rationally isn't going to work. Rational would have been to salami off Donbass, and use the rest of his forces to respond if Ukraine did.

It is dangerous to try to think for others. I suspect he wants, possibly needs, a great victory to cement him as a great restorer of the Russian Empire, before he dies. To this end I believe he intends to crush Ukraine, integrating it into Russia proper, while using the momentum he thinks he'll gain from that to show just how weak NATO is by pressing on them. Which may be why he's holding on to his more advanced equipment.

A more realistic scenario, as Ukraine holds out - as a nation if not as a state - he may begin to throw more and more resources at a nation that will be adapting rapidly to his tactics. Meanwhile, the people of Belarus and Russia are far from content with this state of affairs, and will be applying pressure internally. Russia might handle this for a time, but I don't think Belarus is so stable.

[Beorning]

This audio recording (said to come from an exchange between a Russian warship and a tiny Ukrainian outpost at Zmiyinyy Island (at the Black Sea) is making the rounds now:

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1496989555739746304

[Thufir Hawat]

I've heard some military experts debating today whether Putin will really decide to storm Kyiv. Because if he did so, the urban fighting could get really brutal there - it's not just the Ukrainian military in the city, it's also civilian volunteers who are arming themselves and seem ready to fight in case of a siege.

If I'm understanding his thinking one bit, yes he is going to.
I really, really hope to be wrong, just so you know... 8-)

On the other side, what information we have of Ukrainian movements is largely after the fact. This presents a scenario where Ukraine can concentrate and disperse forces as needed for key pitched battles. Meanwhile, Russian morale is reportedly terrible and getting worse.

That's something most people in the West are forgetting, but it's true: most (ethnic) Russians aren't going to welcome shooting on Ukrainians. Then again, when the pullout was announced, some of the troops were moved back to their bases in Russia's Caucasian republics...

Further, Russia is in a very difficult situation logistically, and this was always going to be the case. All of this mechanization needs mechanics, equipment, and time. This is going to place a serious strain on their advantages as stuff breaks down.

While it is dire, I would not describe Ukraine's position as unwinnable.

No, it's not unwinnable. "Dire", however, is also a correct descriptor...

Trying to think of this rationally isn't going to work. Rational would have been to salami off Donbass, and use the rest of his forces to respond if Ukraine did.

How is that "rational" for Putin ??? ?

I mean, the West would have counted this as "invasion of Ukraine" all the same and the sanctions would have been the same. If you're getting the same deal regardless of what you do, why do less?
And of course, even if Biden wanted to count Russian troops getting into the separatist republics as something less than an invasion (and it seemed like it), he wouldn't have been allowed to.

[Thufir Hawat]

The consensus here is that Putin is probably not simply going for some Ukrainian territory (i.e. the breakaway "republics"). His endgame could be dismantling the current Ukrainian government and installing some puppets of his there. The eastern parts of Ukraine would be assimilated into Russia and the western parts would become a vassalized state similar to Belarus.

That's what I'd expect as well. If there can be a government that is at least nominally lead by Ukrainian politicians with Ukrainian security forces, it might even work.

[Humble Scribe]

Meanwhile the Russians have horrible opsec on top of all of this. The movements of many Russian forces both within and outside of Ukraine are public knowledge.
Meanwhile, where is Russia's electronic warfare? They supposedly had the most advanced in the world - where is it? It's like Russia's most advanced capabilities are actively being held back. But why let your enemy retain centralized command and control if disrupting it is within your capabilities? Something may have already happened here that we don't yet know about.

The point about opsec is well made. Bellingcat tracked the Buk launcher that shot down MH-17 via phone records and social media posts. It go so bad they had to pass a law about it in 2018.
It's hard to know what's happening with EW, but agreed it would be very odd if the Russians didn't use one of their signature capabilities.

Russia is in a very difficult situation logistically, and this was always going to be the case. All of this mechanization needs mechanics, equipment, and time. This is going to place a serious strain on their advantages as stuff breaks down.
While it is dire, I would not describe Ukraine's position as unwinnable.

No of course, war is always a roll of the dice. But we're still only 36 hours in, a lot of second echelon Russian units haven't got to the fight yet, and it remains to be seen how brittle or otherwise Ukrainian resistance is in the face of artillery and airstrikes. A lot of Ukraine's best troops are pinned along the line of contact in the Donbas. But Russia needs a quick win, for sure.
I suspect a lot may depend on Russian willingness to cause or avoid civilian casualties. MLRS can erase everything in a 1 km grid square, but if they do that to a built up area it's going to be a shambles.
Either way it's going to be messy for Russia. It may be enough strain to bring down the regime, the way Afghanistan did the Soviet Union, although one worry is that whatever comes next may not necessarily be better (military coup?)

[midnightblack]

Either way it's going to be messy for Russia. It may be enough strain to bring down the regime, the way Afghanistan did the Soviet Union, although one worry is that whatever comes next may not necessarily be better (military coup?)

I doubt it's going to have an effect of that magnitude. Though I have to admit I am rather stupefied by Europe's unwillingness to take decisive action one way or another, speaking of course mainly in terms of sanctions. I understand that money has no scent, but surely you can find business in less morally ambiguous waters than those of a retrograde soviet nostalgic invading your continent. I've seen some news in that regard, but honestly I was expecting much harsher measures to be in effect the instant his invasion began.

I'm surprised he attacked, though I guess he didn't leave himself much of a choice since he got nothing out of the initial negotiations. I'll be even more surprised if Kiev lasts the night, but I really don't understand what he is aiming for in the long term there. Aside of cementing anti-russian resentments throughout Ukraine and the entire ex-communist block for another century at least.

[Leon Weber]

I'm surprised he attacked, though I guess he didn't leave himself much of a choice since he got nothing out of the initial negotiations. I'll be even more surprised if Kiev lasts the night, but I really don't understand what he is aiming for in the long term there. Aside of cementing anti-russian resentments throughout Ukraine and the entire ex-communist block for another century at least.

Idk, this war might not be as one sided as we previously thought. The Russian Military has been completely embarrassed on the world stage, they attempted shock and awe tactics only to be pushed back at every major objective or VDV deployment.

Granted 2nd echelon troops have yet to reinforce the front but from what we can tell it didn't seem like Russia expected the 2nd echelon to need to do much other than provide some minimal reinforcement and pull security/anti-partisan duty but things are looking a lot better for the Ukrainians than anyone predicted.

Funny what a military that has been preparing for this exact scenario basically since their independence can do when push finally comes to shove.