North Korea Vs. the U.S. Position in Asia

[Healergirl]

Ephiral,

I agree, if NK loses it and attacks, the Chinese will be as horrified as anybody.  But I do worry.  All those Chinese hackers, a very patriotic bunch.  China-based cyber attacks - even if not organized or sanctioned by the Chinese government could lead to a very ugly confrontation with the US, even if only diplomatic.

GaggedLouise,

Yes, I'd heard about an incident where NK border troops actually crossed into Chinese territory to grab women who thought they had reached safety..  Horrifying.


edited for spelling, rrr.

[Moraline]

So, N.Korea has warned the nations of the world that they can "not guarantee the safety of diplomats on N.Korea soil after April 10th."

According to some treaty (not sure if it's U.N.), all world governments are supposed to see to the safe evacuation of diplomats on foreign soil in the event of war.

Is it more posturing by N.Korea or the first step to an act of aggression?

Also did anyone else hear about the Hacker Group, Anonymous, attacking N.Korea's websites, Flikr and Twitter account? What do we think of that? Some are saying it's dangerous provocation.

Wanted poster portraying Kim Jungun as a pigboy

I've come to the conclusion that I'm worried about the escalating tensions. I have friends that live over there and I worry for all of the innocent people in the region.

[TheGlyphstone]

Almost certainly posturing. Kim Jong Un needs to prove he can follow in his father and grandfather's footsteps in standing up to the US - we've backed down every time in the past because we're not lunatics willing to risk thousands of innocent lives on the off-chance it's not a bluff this time, but from their side of the fence the only thing that matters is continuing to 'win' the faceoffs.

[Moraline]

Almost certainly posturing. Kim Jong Un needs to prove he can follow in his father and grandfather's footsteps in standing up to the US - we've backed down every time in the past because we're not lunatics willing to risk thousands of innocent lives on the off-chance it's not a bluff this time, but from their side of the fence the only thing that matters is continuing to 'win' the faceoffs.

The scary part though is that it hasn't always been posturing on the part of N.Korea. Last year they did shell a border city, they sunk a S. Korean ship and have committed other acts. Do they think they can go further? Will they do so? How far will South Korea or the rest of the world let them? I think that I'm worrying too much but it does make a person wonder. Some analysts are saying that we should be taking them seriously.

[Healergirl]

Moraline,

I don't think you are worrying too much.  the NKs keep getting away with it so they keep pushing a little harder each time.  Sooner or later, they will hit steel instead of mush.

[Mr Bigglesworth]

Kim Jon Un it seems, has learned the posturing and threatening tactics from his father, the worrisome part is that he doesn't have the experience to play such a dangerous game - His father was crazy & smart, I worry that Kim Jon Un is just crazy...

[Phaia]

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/north-korea-kim-jong-un-war-201715650.html

This concerns me a lot...I have a brother in a marine team that would be a first responder to an attack

what reaaly got me was this

Fox News host Greta Van Susteren, who has visited North Korea three times, said negotiation is not something on the minds of most North Koreans.

"The whole time we were there, all we saw was preparation for war," Van Susteren said. "If you go inside, they have been at war with us since the early 1950s. They think that every single one of us is spending every Saturday night sitting around planning how to get them while we're busy ordering pizzas and Chinese food carryout, they think that we're getting ready for war."

that measn not only would we face the 1.5 Million man NK army but probally the entire population...it has been noted that our air force could force NK to use up all their missles...well ground troops do not carry that much ammo... during the Korea war human wave attacks overran many positions even when 100s if not 1000s were killed in the attacks.

Its the mind set they have that we do not...they truely believe we would kill them all even if they gave up....How do we fight?


as for earlier comments about the problems with Nks artillery even if half of the tubes dont work that is still 6500 tubes

also there is lots of conflicting reports on the ranges of the artielly...for some years the NK had the longest ranged arty in the world...they also make scud missles and sell them..inaccurate for most purposes but then shooting at a city ya do not need to be pinpoint

Their plan for using their speaicl forces is not to wait to midnight on the date of the attack but to work them into the southa  week or more ahead of time and ready to attack the staging areas for the RKA and the US forces.

anyway this all concerns me

Phaia

[Mr Bigglesworth]

“No one should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gains,” Chinese President Xi Jinping" (From Washington Post) - I think that China wants a war there less than we do, it could be expensive for us in terms of lives and $$, but China has a lot more to lose if it gets drawn into a bloody war so close to home.

[Moraline]

5 hrs ago, ABC News Videos
Speculation mounts that Kim Jong Un is preparing a nuclear show of force.

By Christine Kim

PAJU, South Korea (Reuters) - North Korea suspended its sole remaining major project with the South on Monday, after weeks of threats against the United States and South Korea, as Russian President Vladimir Putin said any nuclear conflict could make Chernobyl look like a fairy tale.

Reclusive North Korea's decision to all but close the Kaesong industrial park coincided with speculation that it will carry out some sort of provocative action - another nuclear weapons test or missile launch - in what has become one of the most serious crises on the peninsula since the end of the Korean War in 1953. (Source - reported roughly 9:00 am EST North American Time)

By HYUNG-JIN KIM | Associated Press – 18 mins ago

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea said Monday it will suspend operations at a factory complex it has jointly run with South Korea, pulling out more than 53,000 North Korean workers and moving closer to severing its last economic link with its rival as tensions escalate.

The Kaesong industrial complex just north of the Demilitarized Zone is the biggest employer in North Korea's third-largest city. Shutting it down, even temporarily, would show that the destitute country is willing to hurt its own economy to display its anger with South Korea and the United States.

I think there is something to this April 10th deadline. I'm suspecting that North Korea is considering another possible nuclear test.

[Callie Del Noire]

“No one should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gains,” Chinese President Xi Jinping" (From Washington Post) - I think that China wants a war there less than we do, it could be expensive for us in terms of lives and $$, but China has a lot more to lose if it gets drawn into a bloody war so close to home.

They, China, aren't as entirely invested in North Korea as they were back nearly 60 years ago. I think the only thing they want from NK is to keep the pensulia divided so that SK isn't as big an industrial powerhouse as it could be. South Korea is one of strong economies they might not want to see grow.

Of course they have to deal with a 3rd generation nutjob and have to wonder how they can keep him under control.

[Healergirl]

Closing down Kaesong?  *said rather weakly*

Dear God.  They aren't just shooting themselves in the foot.  Economically, this is shooting themselves in the gut,  if not the head.

It does occur to me that in their own little universe, they may see this as a crippling blow to the SK economy.  It will certainly do a number on the cash flow that enables the  NK elite to buy goodies.l

[TheGlyphstone]

That's the problem with multiple generations of propaganda - after a while, even you start to believe it.

[Neysha]

The real concern for war wouldn't start until you get reports of reserves in North Korea being activated/mobilized and even more significant movement of forces to the DMZ. AFAIK that hasn't occurred yet.

[TheGlyphstone]

That's a good point. The North Korean Army is not exactly primed for rapid response or blitzkreig, there will be plenty of advance notice and warning from recon satellites if Jong Un really decides to throw the marbles instead of waving his metaphorical dick around.

[Question Mark]

The real concern for war wouldn't start until you get reports of reserves in North Korea being activated/mobilized and even more significant movement of forces to the DMZ. AFAIK that hasn't occurred yet.

This.

My money's on an open-air nuclear test, or maybe another "accident" like Yeonpyeong.

[Phaia]

That's a good point. The North Korean Army is not exactly primed for rapid response or blitzkreig, there will be plenty of advance notice and warning from recon satellites if Jong Un really decides to throw the marbles instead of waving his metaphorical dick around.

The North Korea Army is already mostly deployed...they are based near the DMZ and have been set to high readiness sent the North issued this warning...

add to that on the 2nd China put forces on a 'Level One " alert which is the highest they have

http://leaksource.wordpress.com/2013/04/02/china-mobilizes-military-on-level-one-high-alert-over-north-korea-threats/

http://www.armytimes.com/article/20130408/NEWS/304080025/Japan-increasingly-nervous-about-North-Korea-nukes

April 15 is the birthday of the NK founder , grandfather to the current loony toon and everyone seems to believe ther will be some sort of missle luanch By Nk on that day...
This is now ratcheting pass safety and into...bite my nails and pray someone in North Korea says STOP!!

Phaia

[Callie Del Noire]

This.

My money's on an open-air nuclear test, or maybe another "accident" like Yeonpyeong.

I find myself wondering if there are any contested islands in the nads of SK that they might try to claim by force.

[Moraline]

The North’s latest warning, issued by its Asia-Pacific Peace Committee, urged foreign companies and tourists to leave South Korea.

“The situation on the Korean Peninsula is inching close to a thermonuclear war due to the evermore undisguised hostile actions of the United States and the South Korean puppet warmongers and their moves for a war against” North Korea, the committee said in a statement carried by state media on Tuesday.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/skorean-managers-say-north-korean-colleagues-not-showing-up-for-work-at-joint-factory-complex/2013/04/08/3fc0d6a4-a0af-11e2-bd52-614156372695_story.html

U.S. official: North Korea could test fire missiles at any time
By Barbara Starr, Jethro Mullen and Joe Sterling, CNN
updated 5:10 PM EDT, Tue April 9, 2013

http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/09/world/asia/koreas-tensions/index.html

This is getting scary as shit.

[Healergirl]

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/korea/articles/20130404.aspx

A very good open intelligence summary.  You may have to go to the main page to refresh on futre dates.

[Moraline]

"A presenter on North Korea's state broadcaster KRT announces on Thursday that the country is ready to attack South Korea. The woman says the exact co-ordinates have been inputted into warheads and that once the button had been pushed 'our enemies will be turned to a sea of flames'"

~ Source: Video with English subtitles direct from North Korea TV  http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2013/apr/11/north-korea-missiles-south-video
Original source:  Reuters,  Thursday 11 April 2013

Yesterday I was feeling okay about this whole situation and not as worried. I had come to believe that this was definitely just the rhetoric like always. Now I'm worried that it may be rhetoric but what if someone makes a mistake or an accident happens, it feels like we are at a breaking point and I'm concerned again.

[Healergirl]

Moraline,

I wish I could say there is no cause for concern.  NK may well be 'merely' posturing, but after the last round of incidents that killed SK citizens, well, how do the NKs top that?  And topping that is something they may feel they have to do to keep world attention, they will feel a powerful impulse to match that level at teheery least - or they will be perceived to have backed down.  In their own minds, I do think this is what they are thinking.

In my opinion,  SK and US military commanders are quite justified if they are  assuming that whatever NK plans to do, killing people is part of their program. They will not, I think, stand by and let NK operations unfold the way NK wants them to.

[TheGlyphstone]

And keep in mind that they've also claimed to be readying their 'vast nuclear arsenal', when they've only managed a handful of stationary nuclear tests, none of which were on missiles. NK may very well be planning to cause some sort of incident, but any claims they're making of the scope or scale of the 'war' they're plotting are almost certainly overblown.

[gaggedLouise]

I also feel that Kim and his guys have pushed themselves to a point where they can't back down without losing the initiative in their ongoing game of cards with their neighbours, with the US and the international community, and losing face in front of lots of people. They're likely to sense they have to do something impressive, though I don't see them trying to pitch an atomic bomb on Seoul. That would be plain suicide, and would go down bad even with many ordinary north Koreans. But yeah, I'd be surprised if they don't launch a missile in the next few days (though it would not have to hold a nuclear warhead), or even within the next 24 hours.

@Glyph: True, it doesn't look like they have mastered the art of putting a nuke warhead onto a mid- or long-range missile and making it work.

[Healergirl]

The latest from Strategypage:

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/20130411.aspx

April 11, 2013: Iran is paying close to North Korea’s recent effort to threaten the world into submission via the threat of using primitive (and recently developed) nuclear weapons. The results of this are not in yet, but if the North Korean nuclear intimidation fails Iran would be more willing to abandon their nuclear ambitions. The reason is cost; the Iranian nuclear weapons program has cost over $100 billion so far (in direct costs and lost revenue from economic sanctions). The biggest domestic threat to the religious dictatorship that controls Iran is popular outrage over rising unemployment, inflation and shortages. Money is the solution for that and if so much money is going into supporting the nuclear weapons program that you trigger another revolution, then the nukes aren’t worth it. The fate of North Korea’s current use of nuclear blackmail will carry a very important message to Iran.

So far the North Korean intimidation campaign isn’t doing too well. The North Koreans, like the Iranians, have been making threats for years. While the media pays attention to this theater most people do not. North Korea, like Iran, cannot afford to escalate to a real war because they would lose. Both countries are ruled by dictatorships. In Iran’s case it’s a religious clique while North Korea is run by a hereditary military dynasty (that once pretended it was communist). In both countries the people are not happy with their inept and bellicose rulers. North Korea appears to be trying to goad the U.S. or South Korea into attacking so that North Korea can declare itself a victim of foreign oppression and call on the world have pity and send lots of free stuff. That has worked in the past but even with the presence of some nukes (of questionable effectiveness) the North Korean rants no longer terrify. This time around, the reviews have become dismissive and the North Korean leaders are facing a major internal crisis if their bellowing results only in derisive laughter.

At the same time it should be noted that Iran began working on nuclear technology before the clerics took over the government in the 1980s. In the 1970s Iran sought to obtain a nuclear power plant. This is always the first step in developing nuclear weapons and it was later discovered that this was the Shah’s ultimate goal. This news did not surprise the Arab neighbors (who have been waiting for Iran to makes its move for over forty years) or Iranians themselves (who have long believed that Iran, the local superpower for thousands of years, should have nuclear weapons). Many of the key scientists for Iran’s current nuclear power and weapons program began their training under the Shah’s long range effort to make Iran a state with nuclear power, and weapons.

When the clerics tossed out the Shah in 1979 they did examine all that they inherited from the Shah. The math was against the nuclear power program, as it was, at the time, cheaper to generate electricity with oil and gas than with nuclear fuel. But eventually the clerics realized that the Shah’s plan for developing nuclear weapons made sense and that program was revived under the guise of a nuclear energy program (which eventually made sense once the price of oil was high enough and the war with Iraq was over). But that effort is costing ordinary Iranians a lot and that is not popular at all.

[Healergirl]

A column on the North Korean crisis by columnist austin bay.

North Korea's Target List Is a Freudian Slip

by Austin Bay
April 2, 2013

http://www.strategypage.com/on_point/2013040223742.aspx

I recommend reading the whole thing, but here is the last paragraph, which is the most common-sense passage I have yet heard/read  about the crisis:

"What is the intelligence indicator that will tell us when Washington and Seoul believe the propaganda campaign is over and war is likely? South Korea hosts thousands of U.S. military dependents. When they start to leave, pay close attention."