Brexit

[Eye of Horus]

There doesn’t seem to be a debate thread on this topic yet. If I’ve missed it then my apologies.

So, Brexit. The black hole that has exerted its pull on pretty much every aspect of UK politics for the last two years. The negotiations for how and when Britain will leave the EU continue to drag on, as do the debates of what the impacts will be and whether the Leave campaign itself was even legal.

I have a lot of information and opinions on the subject which I’m happy to share, but the main reason I’m posting this thread is that I’m curious about what people outside the UK think of all this. The newspapers here are incredibly solipsistic, and apart from playing the EU up as some kind of monolithic bully, the opinions of people from Europe, the US and even our neighbouring Ireland are almost completely absent.

So what do you guys think? Is the UK going to be better off in the long run, or are we charting a course best described by that one float from the Düsseldorf Carnival? Or does the rest of the world genuinely not care that much either way?

[Sain]

As far as I gather from the local news it's a small inconvenience for some traders over here, but other than that Brexit doesn't really matter to Finland in any super significant manner. From over here it looks like a problem mainly for UK with what so many European companies pulling their production and offices into mainland countries, trade disadvantage, and whatnot. I can't imagine how it would be good for UK in the long run, just seems like a generally silly move where UK loses a lot and gains very little.

[Eye of Horus]

I can't imagine how it would be good for UK in the long run, just seems like a generally silly move where UK loses a lot and gains very little.

A few will gain - mostly the very wealthy individuals who can use a reduction in “EU red tape” (like transparency laws, consumer protections and environmental standards) to increase their profits and reduce their tax burden (via planned post-Brexit cuts to corporation tax). Not coincidentally, these people have ties to the Conservative and UKIP political parties, and to the more pro-Brexit media outlets.

Some foreign states such as Russia also benefit from a general weakening of Europe, and (what do you know) there are several Russian oligarchs on the Conservative party’s donor list. I expect that Donald Trump, with his zero-sum approach to foreign trade, is probably seeing opportunities in Britain’s weakened position as well.

[Lustful Bride]

A few will gain - mostly the very wealthy individuals who can use a reduction in “EU red tape” (like transparency laws, consumer protections and environmental standards) to increase their profits and reduce their tax burden (via planned post-Brexit cuts to corporation tax). Not coincidentally, these people have ties to the Conservative and UKIP political parties, and to the more pro-Brexit media outlets.

Some foreign states such as Russia also benefit from a general weakening of Europe, and (what do you know) there are several Russian oligarchs on the Conservative party’s donor list. I expect that Donald Trump, with his zero-sum approach to foreign trade, is probably seeing opportunities in Britain’s weakened position as well.

I don't know If im just becoming a conspiracy nut, or if the world has gotten so crazy....but this makes way too much sense for me.

[Oniya]

I think there was a thread back when Brexit was being voted on, but it's been so long that a fresh thread is probably a good thing.

[Eye of Horus]

I don't know If im just becoming a conspiracy nut, or if the world has gotten so crazy....but this makes way too much sense for me.

Haha well in fairness it wasn’t ALL shadowy puppet masters pulling the strings - they couldn’t have managed it without some deep-rooted anger already being present. And that anger came from quite a few places:

20 solid years of newspapers (most of which are either somewhat or very right wing, and friendly with the successive right wing governments we’ve had in the UK for the last 30 years) scapegoating immigration and / or the EU for issues that were actually caused by domestic government policies, such as...

A shift in government priorities since the 80s away from manufacturing and towards services, leading to massive gains in jobs and wealth for the city of London, and massive losses for former industrial areas. Successive governments have done little to regenerate many of these areas.

A reduction in public housebuilding (again, since the 80s) and leaving it to the private sector, who are naturally inclined to build slower to keep demand and prices high. Housing is therefore vastly more expensive than it used to be.

Austerity causing a loss of value in people’s wages (and many people losing jobs and only getting part-time or insecure work to replace it) and thus leading struggling people to resent anyone on welfare who get things “for free” - which again, the newspapers would play up by reporting the most ridiculous cases, especially if they involved immigrants.

Backlash against the government in general for all of the above (some UKIP adverts actually said things like “Give the elite a kicking” - totally ignoring that UKIPs own politicians and donors are about as elite as they come).

Fears about “community” in the face of immigration - not always stemming from subconscious racism, but sometimes doing so. I think it’s fair to say that there is still a lot of low-key racism in Britain, and this has been highlighted since Brexit made it “acceptable” to speak these views openly once again. The political class probably remain the most bigoted group of all.

Islamophobia, if not openly embraced, is passively tolerated by many Britons (and the government), and again the right-wing newspapers play a part by placing any negative mention of Muslims front and centre. The Brexit campaign specifically raised the fear of Turkey joining the EU in future as a reason to leave.

A general feeling that people don’t have it as good as they used to (which in terms of house ownership, social mobility and spending power is statistically true), leading to a general, unfocused nostalgia for the “old days”. We didn’t have or need the EU in the “old days”. Hell, the idea of bringing back the old colour for passports played well with certain demographics because of this nostalgia.

[Lilias]

In Greece we have a saying for those who want to stand alone separately from everyone else: 'All together, and the lice-ridden one apart'. ;D Britain has been alienating people in Europe for a long time (not as badly as the US, but still), and is about to find out that being friendless is not that much fun.

The optimist in me (she does make it to the surface, on a good day) wants to believe that the country will eventually bounce back. The realist suspects that 'eventually' is not even visible on the horizon, and things will get a lot worse before they get better. The currently prominent figures in the Commons are a bunch of collectively staggering incompetence, and there's no margin for mistakes, because the overseas vultures are already circling.

[Prosak]

I personally feel in the long run it is better for the UK to be independent. As it is for any nation. Global politics the likes of the eu  I feel is doomed to fail. As it is to big in my opinion to suceed.

[Polymorph]

I voted leave and have not changed my mind and would vote that way again.

I believe remain made a bad campaign focussing almost entirely on money and the economy. If this was the sole criteria for making a vote we would never had abolished slavery or given women the vote, because that was nothing but bad news for business and banks as well. Look it up in history books and you'll see exactly the same arguments put forward on those occasions as the case for remaining in the EU. Thankfully people then as more recently voted with their hearts rather than their wallets.


My vote was based almost solely on the fact that the EU is a huge backward step in terms of democracy and the right to self determination. The power set up of it's various branches means that the only elected portion, the European parliament has very little say in decision making. It cannot propose laws and it's decisions are only advisory to the unelected EU commission. This has led to a disillusionment even amongst pro Euro voters. At the last two European parliamentary elections turn out for voting was 42.5% AND 43%. This is pretty abysmal, ask around and very few people can even name one of the four MEP's that represent their region. With well over half the voters across the EU so disinterested or apathetic towards it, the whole mess lacks any real legitimacy.

[Eye of Horus]

I believe remain made a bad campaign focussing almost entirely on money and the economy.

I agree with you there - the official Remain campaign did not tap into many of the underlying angers that people had (such as the ones I mentioned in my last post).

If this was the sole criteria for making a vote we would never had abolished slavery or given women the vote, because that was nothing but bad news for business and banks as well.

I feel like this is comparing apples to oranges a bit - aside from both of the above having much more "grassroots" origins than Brexit, the literature I can find on women's suffrage doesn't mention economic opposition, and the economic arguments against slavery abolition were more easily revoked (due to the Industrial Revolution making slave-made products less competitive).

My vote was based almost solely on the fact that the EU is a huge backward step in terms of democracy and the right to self determination. The power set up of it's various branches means that the only elected portion, the European parliament has very little say in decision making. It cannot propose laws and it's decisions are only advisory to the unelected EU commission.

I would tend to disagree that the EU is regressive with respect to democracy and self determination - almost all of the gripes with EU law raised during the Brexit campaign (immigration, renationalisation etc) were well within our national parliament's rights to resolve, with these rights specifically codified into EU law. There are demonstrable examples of other EU countries doing exactly that (to take the same two examples, Belgium's immigration policy being much stricter than Britain's, and Germany nationalising its utilities). So in many cases, the UK government simply failed to take action, and then blamed the EU. However, I will say that there is at least one very big case of the EU unfairly strong-arming a national government, and that is their treatment of Greece after the banking crisis.

I think it's worth noting that the EU operates in two spheres - economic and social. Economically the vast majority of their efforts are geared towards harmonising standards to make trade easier (for a simple example, EU law is why so many electronic devices can now use the same charger cable). There are indeed examples of EU economic policies being bad for nation states, such as the neoliberal wishlist TTIP, and the fisheries policy which was grossly unfair to Britain. However, it should be noted that both of these bad policies were overturned by grassroots action. The fisheries policy example is a bit galling to me actually; a petition by British citizens was able to change EU law, but Nigel Farage and the other UKIP MEPs - who often raised the issue of unfair fishing policy - didn't even bother to engage with the petitions nor attend the meetings and the votes where they themselves could enact change (due to their policy of sitting out all EU business in "protest", but still claiming salary and expenses from the UK taxpayer).

In social aspects the EU has been much less ambiguously beneficial - codifying a lot of rights and consumer protections that we now take for granted. Despite their perceived democratic deficit, their lawmaking process is a lot more transparent than the UK's (almost everything is freely available online). Their pan-european reach has also allowed them to be the most effective enforcer against climate change (many environmental laws celebrated by the current government have their origins in EU directives), and they are even working on an anti-tax-dodging charter that is likely to be more effective than any individual country's efforts. And of course the recent data protection rules - that you've no doubt gotten loads of emails about - the ones that make it significantly easier to stop companies from harvesting your online data, are also an EU invention.

I find it very sad that even though Brexit was fought around "taking back control", the process of leaving has been characterised by concentrating as much power into as few hands as possible, an EU Withdrawal Bill that opens the gate for reducing our freedoms rather than enhancing them (what possible reason could you have for not codifying, very specifically, EU citizen and consumer rights into British law, except to remove some of them?), and as little transparency as the cabinet can possibly get away with (under the nonsensical argument that it hurts our negotiating position).

[CuriousEyes]

I have little to add personally - if you havent seen it, John Oliver did a bit on Brexit back before the referendum and has had some periodic updates. I would be curious outside the comedy how much was accurate to the situation.

Https://youtube.com/watch?v=iAgKHSNqxa8


Https://youtube.com/watch?v=fyVz5vgqBhE

[TheGlyphstone]

John's usually very good about doing his research (in addition to being side-splittingly hilarious).

[Polymorph]

I have little to add personally - if you havent seen it, John Oliver did a bit on Brexit back before the referendum and has had some periodic updates. I would be curious outside the comedy how much was accurate to the situation.

John Oliver whilst being funny is so one sided that it can hardly been taken as objective.

Personally I find Jonathan Pie as funny, but much more insightful into the state of British politics. He tends to pull no punches either in his criticism of the right or left, leave or remain. He does not fall into the trap that Oliver and others do of simply labelling everyone with an opposing viewpoint to himself of being stupid or racist.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPWNh28AzRc

This one's actually from the US presidential election, but touches on Brexit and a lot of what he says applies equally to both cases. In both you see the same lack of introspection from large sections of the losing parties. Instead of looking at their own arguments and figuring where they went wrong they prefer to point at everyone else for their own failings.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG9g7BcjKs&index=2&list=RDUPWNh28AzRc

[Eye of Horus]

I have little to add personally - if you havent seen it, John Oliver did a bit on Brexit back before the referendum and has had some periodic updates. I would be curious outside the comedy how much was accurate to the situation.

He's obviously time limited, and picking the most extreme and silly clips to showcase, but in general he's not wrong. The EU does bring many tangible benefits to the UK (from guaranteed breaks and paid holidays at work, to development grants that have channelled funding into green energy and into deprived areas of the UK such as Cornwall that our government has long ignored). The Leave campaign was full of demonstrable lies (though this didn't matter, as people weren't interested in abstract economics - they wanted to take the one chance they were given to rail against their everyday status quo). And the debate around immigration has become utterly toxic (again, people don't want to hear about the abstract economic benefits of immigration - they care about jobs, wages and house prices, and much of the media insist that these are all the fault of immigrants, and of the EU's free movement rules).

Personally I find Jonathan Pie as funny, but much more insightful into the state of British politics. He tends to pull no punches either in his criticism of the right or left, leave or remain. He does not fall into the trap that Oliver and others do of simply labelling everyone with an opposing viewpoint to himself of being stupid or racist.

I rather enjoy Jonathan Pie. :P

The David Cameron-led Remain campaign was indeed flawed in many ways; dismissing rather than alleviating genuine concerns, and relying too much on negatives that were perceived as fearmongering (which people had recent experience of, courtesy of the Scottish independence referendum). The Leave campaign contained overblown fearmongering too - see here for an example - but also tapped into hopes and angers that resonated to the point that people didn't care that the "evidence" they used was in most cases utterly baseless.

However, nearly two years on from the vote, I think it is no longer "finger pointing" to highlight the illegalities that have come to light about the Leave campaign's funding (and its shady data harvesting and dark ads). Nor how many of their claims have since been proven false, or how they have rowed back on many of their commitments ("fund the NHS with money we send to the EU" being the most well publicised). I also think it is right to be furious at the spikes in hate crimes since the vote, or the murder of a British MP by a Brexit fanatic. And I remain unimpressed by the Conservative government's division, incompetence and authoritarian handling of the EU withdrawal process (which has less to do with Remainer "saboteurs" and more to do with internal politicking that treats the will of the people as an excuse, not a goal). The lack of progress in the negotiations alone is frightening.

Which raises another question actually - what are people's opinions on the EU's handling of the Brexit negotiations? Have the European diplomats and their demands been reasonable? Harsh but fair? Or vindictive?

[Polymorph]

However, nearly two years on from the vote, I think it is no longer "finger pointing" to highlight the illegalities that have come to light about the Leave campaign's funding (and its shady data harvesting and dark ads). Nor how many of their claims have since been proven false, or how they have rowed back on many of their commitments ("fund the NHS with money we send to the EU" being the most well publicised). I also think it is right to be furious at the spikes in hate crimes since the vote, or the murder of a British MP by a Brexit fanatic.

And equally no longer "finger pointing" to highlight that both the Pro EU Liberal Democrats and Open Britain were also fined for campaign funding violations. Or that many of the remain's assertions as to what would occur immediately after a vote to leave have likewise proved false. Most notably that unemployment would rise by up to 800,000 in the months following a vote to leave where instead unemployment has steadily continued to fall and now stands at it's lowest figure for forty three years or that a leave vote would trigger an immediate and profound recession. I'm also certain that the vast majority of both camps were appalled by the sickening attack on Duncan Keating in Manchester by his Pro EU fanatic neighbour. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-supporter-attack-eu-referendum-european-union-remain-manchester-a7362956.htmlAnd I'm certainly equally furious at the rise of hate crimes across the EU countries such as a grenade being thrown into a migrant hostel and another being torched in an arson attack with locals coming out to cheer and chant in Germany.

[Eye of Horus]

And equally no longer "finger pointing" to highlight that both the Pro EU Liberal Democrats and Open Britain were also fined for campaign funding violations.

I say good. That means the Electoral Commission are taking their job seriously against all cases, not just against one side.

Although, from looking at the EC’s reports, it looks like the Lib Dems were fined £18,000 for non-transparency / bad record keeping, whereas Vote Leave were fined £70,000 (with a statement from the Director of Political Finance that the fine would have been higher if the law allowed it) for non-transparency / bad record keeping, overspending and undeclared donations - and their campaign chief was referred to the police for suspected criminal offences. So while people on both sides of the referendum broke the rules, one side seems to have been playing significantly dirtier than the other.

Or that many of the remain's assertions as to what would occur immediately after a vote to leave have likewise proved false. Most notably that unemployment would rise by up to 800,000 in the months following a vote to leave

I had a look at the report in question, and to be honest I can’t work out what the basis of it was. While such an extreme report was to be expected coming from George Osborne (an avowed Remainer, and one of the least qualified Chancellors we’ve had in a long time), it damages the credibility of all other Remain sources in the minds of the public.

However, I feel like it would be foolish to ignore the overwhelming consensus among more serious analysts (some with no ties to one side or the other). NIESR’s prediction, for example, of growth falling to 1.9% in 2017 was almost exactly correct (we grew 1.8%). The black holes in seasonal farm workers and NHS recruitment don’t bode well either, nor does the slump in our currency value.

It should be stressed that all this is happening before we have left the EU. All regulations and trade deals remain in place, and companies who have contingency plans to bail out of Britain have not acted yet.

where instead unemployment has steadily continued to fall and now stands at it's lowest figure for forty three years

We need to be cautious with this figure, because it is only good if people who were in poverty while unemployed are no longer in poverty once working. And due to the eroded value of workers’ wages and the increase in part-time work (which is generally worse paid, less secure and has fewer rights and perks - besides obviously earning less through fewer hours worked) vs full-time work, the level of poverty in Britain has been going up despite the reduction in unemployment.

Of course, this is largely down to government policy rather than Brexit, though Brexit certainly hasn’t helped on a macro-economic level. Since the vote there has been increased market uncertainty, and a collapsing pound which even today remains 15% below its pre-referendum value (and, crucially, has not translated into a boost for UK exports as you might expect a devalued currency to do).

I'm also certain that the vast majority of both camps were appalled by the sickening attack on Duncan Keating in Manchester by his Pro EU fanatic neighbour. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-supporter-attack-eu-referendum-european-union-remain-manchester-a7362956.htmlAnd I'm certainly equally furious at the rise of hate crimes across the EU countries such as a grenade being thrown into a migrant hostel and another being torched in an arson attack with locals coming out to cheer and chant in Germany.

YES. We must condemn and punish these kind of attacks whichever side they come from. Again, it is not just because of Brexit that these things are happening (austerity, the refugee crisis, and 30 years of bad economic policy deflected by a toxic media are to blame for that) but it is hard to argue that they have not become worse since the vote.

[Polymorph]

A new video out on the subject of Brexit from Jonathan Pie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEaEBmpu-4o

[Eye of Horus]

Nice.

He makes a good point - calling the other side stupid in any debate doesn’t help, because for the thick-skinned it makes them turn away from your argument, and for the thin-skinned it just feeds a victim complex.

I’ve seen a few polls that put sovereignty as the top issue for Leave voters and a few that have put immigration, but I’ve always wondered about what sovereignty we actually gain from Brexit.

Sovereignty over our money? The UK still controls 98% if it’s own expenditure, and the 2% is well compensated by foreign investment and increased GDP attracted by our EU membership. Economic problems like wage stagnation and a strained NHS are therefore at the door of our own parliament, not the EU. How then does Brexit encourage the government to change anything about its current policy?

Sovereignty over our borders? EU freedom of movement does not prevent the UK from imposing conditions on immigrants such as the need to have a job lined up, or a probation period before they can claim any benefits. Many other EU countries have implemented such rules. The UK government hasn’t because, simply, immigration is good for the economy and helps to offset Britain’s ageing population. However, they haven’t invested in the public services and housebuilding to support this increased population (New Labour had a mediocre Migrant Impact Fund for high immigration constituencies, but even this was scrapped by the sitting government several years ago). Neither Labour nor the Conservatives have pointed this out, because to do so admits that the scale and effects of immigration are the UK government’s fault, not the EU’s. Again, how does Brexit address this, especially since the largest proportion of immigration to the UK is from outside the EU anyway?

Sovereignty over our rights? The government might talk about making our rights and freedoms even better than the ones we already have, but their repeated refusal to codify these existing EU rights into their withdrawal bill means that the only possible outcome is that we will have the same or less of these rights. Why should we accept this?

Freedom from the European Court of Justice? When has this ever negatively affected Britain, except to condemn the current government for “grave and systematic violations” of the rights of disabled British citizens through George Osborne’s austerity programme? And the newspapers may like to blame the EU for us being unable to deport terrorists and hate preachers because of Human Rights, but EU law contains all sorts of clauses allowing for the removal of security threats, even in line with Human Rights law. Why should the EU be blamed for the incompetence of UK lawyers to make a watertight case?

This article gives some more information on the sovereignty question.

[Scribbles]

Eye of Horus, just wanted to say thanks for the read!

I have nothing to do with Brexit but was really confused by a lot of what is being said, mostly because the coverage on both sides had some sick fascination with forcing their readers and viewers to trudge through gobs of rhetoric before finally reaching their points. This is the first time I've managed to glean at least some understanding beyond the basics of what's currently happening.

Personally, I was hoping the remainers would win but admittedly didn't put too much thought or research into it. I just love the notion of Europe and even countries outside of Europe working together, as naïve as that sounds...

Also, not in the camp pushing to punish Britain, feels like that's driven more out of spite than anything else. Anyway, fingers crossed that you lot will join again one day and hopefully the EU will have sorted out its kinks by then!

[Eye of Horus]

Eye of Horus, just wanted to say thanks for the read!

Thanks Scribbles. :) I’ve tried to present the facts as I see them, but of course I don’t have them all and that’s why I started this thread.

Also, not in the camp pushing to punish Britain, feels like that's driven more out of spite than anything else.

I’ve definitely found it difficult to work out what is spite and what is simply a horrendously complicated legal process. Certainly the EU countries and their negotiators have no incentive at all to make it especially easier for the UK.

Anyway, fingers crossed that you lot will join again one day and hopefully the EU will have sorted out its kinks by then!

If we were to rejoin in 20-30 years (assuming the EU still exists), it would certainly push this whole thing into tragicomic territory.

Really, based on the evidence I’ve seen and the way things have gone so far, I’m thinking that the best option is not to leave at all. But to reverse the last referendum fairly would need a strong democratic mandate - either solid proof that the campaigns cheated to the point that the vote could be considered “rigged”, and / or a major stand by parliament against the government, and / or a new referendum where a majority voted to Remain. Time is running out to achieve any of those before the leave notice expires in March next year.

[Polymorph]

If we were to rejoin in 20-30 years (assuming the EU still exists), it would certainly push this whole thing into tragicomic territory.

Predicting anything 20-30 years from now would be pretty foolish, way too many unknown events will happen. 12 months before they became reality if you'd told someone that Macron would form a new party and be the next French president, that Trump would beat Clinton or that a five star/Liga coalition would be in power in Italy you'd be considered mad.

I personally can't see the EU collapsing any time soon. A more likely outcome (and please note I only mean more likely than a collapse, not probable or in any way desirable) would be the recent trend continuing with EU centre right parties moving further to the right and allying with hard/far right groups. We have seen this in Austria, Denmark and Italy already. To a lesser extent in France and Germany too with Les Republicans moving right under their new leader and the German interior minister from the CSU talking more to his Freedom party and Liga counterparts in Austria and Italy than he seems to talk to his own chancellor.


I do wonder (again only idle speculation on a small possibility) what might happen if the number of right/far right governments rose from the current seven or thereabouts (?) to say 14 or 15 and constituted the majority in the EU? Would Liberals suddenly do a U turn and campaign against rejoining and the far right also turn 90 degrees and clamour to be in again?

The EU parliamentary elections next year will be interesting to say the least. The historically low turn out of voters and PR system for these has tended to favour the Eurosceptic parties in the past, and that was when they were fringe groups unlike this round when they are in some national governments.. Of course the UK will no longer be taking part, so JCJ can at least take solace that Nigel Farage will no longer be there.

[Callie Del Noire]

My problem with this.. Northern Ireland.

I, from the distant point of the US, get the feeling that we are looking and some MAJOR border issues that could unravel the peace that has unsteadily set up in Northern Ireland for a variety of reason. I don't see EU investment continuing there... the issue with borders will upset some folks who I think still have stuff buried on the side of a hill somewhere out there.

One result is the return of the 'troubles' real quick if things aren't settled quickly.

[Eye of Horus]

Yes it is an important issue. It was understandable (if annoying) that neither side made a serious deal out of the Irish border during the referendum because, basically, it’s not an issue that resonates with most people in England. They all conveniently forgot that we do, in fact, have a land border with an EU country, despite being an island.

It has become more prominent since the snap election, because it is a big issue for the cartoon conservatives in the Northern Irish DUP, who are now propping up the government. They have been at loggerheads repeatedly over the DUP’s conflicting demands to have no hard border with the Republic of Ireland and at the same time to have a Brexit deal that is no different from the rest of the U.K.

The DUP might be bastards, but they’re playing significantly smarter than the government’s last coalition partners by recognising a) that it’s always the junior coalition partner that gets punished at the next election and b) who needs who more - they even managed to secure an extra £1 billion in funding for Northern Island, from a government that had claimed all through the election that “there is no magic money tree” (in complete defiance of how government financing actually works, mind you). Hence they have opted for an agreement where they can decide whether or not to vote with the government on some issues - although, so far, they have never refused to support the government on any Brexit-related votes.

[Polymorph]

.. the issue with borders will upset some folks who I think still have stuff buried on the side of a hill somewhere out there.

One result is the return of the 'troubles' real quick if things aren't settled quickly.

This is just hyperbole. The nationalists were never fighting for EU membership. The troubles did not end when we joined the EEC or the EU. They ended because both sides came to the glaringly obvious realization that there was no military victory achievable. The IRA could never hope to defeat and drive out the British army and the British forces could never achieve a definative defeat of the republicans. We were just locked in a senseless round of reprisals and tit for tat killings from paramilitaries from both sides. This has not changed and will not change, so no side has anything to gain from restarting the troubles.


Here is a link to Sinn Fein's views on Brexit http://www.sinnfein.ie/brexit. Their concerns about Brexit are about commerce and funding, not about a return to violence. The vague warnings about a return of the troubles do not come from the nationalist community, but predominantly from pro EU politicians both in the UK and on the continent who have no connection whatsoever to them.

[Eye of Horus]

I agree we are unlikely to return to soldiers on the streets and armed paramilitary thugs stalking the back alleys (thank god) - but bombs, hate crimes and vandalism? Like post-vote hate crimes in the mainland, they still occur and are likely to go up. I was in Dublin just last year and the front-page news one day was an IRA bomb bust. The status quo is fragile.

And I think Sinn Fein, like most Irish authorities, are in a position to know this much better than mainland Brits. The very website you link states “implications for the peace process and the Good Friday Agreement” as part of their listed concerns about Brexit.

And the fact that their page image is people holding placards saying No Border, No Barrier suggests that at the very least that this is a front and centre issue for them. It’s probably the one thing they and the DUP agree on, even if the Northern Irish Parliament has been inactive for half a year due to the RHI scandal and the Conservative / DUP alliance messing with the UK government’s traditionally agreed neutrality when dealing with the Irish devolved parliament.