North Korea Vs. the U.S. Position in Asia

Started by Moraline, April 03, 2013, 09:38:27 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Moraline

Curious about peoples thoughts on the current growing tensions in Korea (North & South).

How far will it go?
Are we taking it serious enough?
What should the U.S. do and/or how will the rest of the world respond?
What it is China's stance and in the end how will they respond to all of this?

So many questions...

How do people think the world should be responding and why?

(A video in case people aren't aware of what's going on over seas)
Inside Story Americas - US vs North Korea: A potential crises?
Inside Story Americas - US vs North Korea: A potential crises?   by AlJazeeraEnglish, April 3, 2013

Retribution

#1
I read a story I think it was on CNN that said Kim's father and grandfather had long ago learned that by offering up threats the US would pour more money to them so that they can feed their people and such. If I am recalling details of the Jimmy Carter mission a few years back correctly the former president offered them more aid money to cease their weapons development. I view the current crisis in the same light essentially that they want us to hand them more blackmail money.

In the Korean conflict the allied forces fought well China to a draw not North Korea. It was a proxy conflict of the old cold war. In recent years we have developed the tendency to hand countries that oppose us piles of money in an attempt to appease them. Pakistan is a prime example as we now know Osama Bin Laden was hiding there. We have had an economic embargo on Cuba and North Korea for around 60 years each. The list goes on and on and I think shows a failed policy where we shoot ourselves in the foot by trying to buy off dictators.

Lets do something crazy like keep the money we toss out in foreign aid at home. We are clearly not getting much return on our dollar for the investment and our deficit is out of control. Maybe if we kept some of that money at home we could keep our social programs and not increase taxes and it certainly could help the deficit. And call me hard hearted but I suspect our North Korean friends might have more pressing concerns than nukes when they start starving to death because that is the real issue here.

North Korea cannot feed it's population because well Communism is a failed experiment. Said population becomes restless when they are starving. The only way a dictator can divert their attention is by saber rattling and if they get handed money to feed the people it makes it simpler for them to hold onto power. I would imagine a starving population might take a petty demagog to task because well they are hungry.

TheGlyphstone

North Korea is not and will not be a threat to the US - they can't even get a working ICBM yet. The danger is if they flip out and lob some missiles at South Korea or Japan, who are our allies.

But as Retribution said, I'm almost certain this is just more of the same. The Kim family has learned that the squeaky wheel gets the grease, and they have proceeded to milk that for half a century or so.

Callie Del Noire

Okay.. right off the bat.. North Korea is not, despite the US media's attempts to downgrade it, a minor threat. They have several very dangerous elements in their arsenal. First off, they have a LOT of artillery zeroed in on South Korean cities.. have for decades. It would take little to no time for them to shell some of the biggest population centers in the Peninsula with among other things.. chemical and possibly biological agents. They can reach pretty much anywhere in Asia with their short/midrange missiles. They have demonstrated this by putting missile test shots OVER Japan.

Militarily they are only out numbered by China in the region. We're a non-element thanks to downsizing. The only reason we've been able to do anything anywhere else than the gulf region is mostly luck. US Military RoE (rules of engagement) call for a 2 1/2 war navy. We last had that in Reagan's time. Iraq/Afghanistan was only possible due to relative geographic closeness. We can do something more than we are.. but only at the risk of missing something else. Add in the fiscal cliff consequences and the US military is more tightly constrained than it has been since Vietnam. We're tight on money, manpower and material.

Why do you think they are doing this NOW? Because right now it's the best time to leverage the US' allies to make us back down, cough up money and go away. Realistically the Democratic People's Republic of Korea can't hit US facilities of merit.. but they can really put a nasty hurt on South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and pretty much anyone whose country title doesn't contain 'China'. Nukes.. MIGHT be a reach.. but don't doubt for a moment that conventional ordnance, bio or chemical weapons will be doing a LOT damage to all those civilian populations.

North Korea isn't a communist nation save in name... it's a bandit kingdom..and they are using what they have to get the rich folks around them to pay up and leave them be. That worked for 3 generations of the leadership and they will continue to do so. They have flourished while over a million plus of their own citizens starved. And still no one revolted. The Eastern Bloc fell apart and still no revolt.

Also remember.. this is a NEW leader, he cannot back down.  If he falters and doesn't come down with a portion of what he seeks.. there are those who WILL try to usurp him. I imagine he plans on crushing those who aren't loyal.. but he still needs to consolidate his hold.

Avis habilis

Quote from: Callie Del Noire on April 03, 2013, 11:52:00 AM
... he still needs to consolidate his hold.

Which might be exactly why he's doing this now. An acute crisis may be his plan to get at least some supporters of his enemies in the palace thinking that now isn't "the convenient season" for a coup.

Ephiral

Quote from: Callie Del Noire on April 03, 2013, 11:52:00 AM
Okay.. right off the bat.. North Korea is not, despite the US media's attempts to downgrade it, a minor threat. They have several very dangerous elements in their arsenal. First off, they have a LOT of artillery zeroed in on South Korean cities.. have for decades. It would take little to no time for them to shell some of the biggest population centers in the Peninsula with among other things.. chemical and possibly biological agents. They can reach pretty much anywhere in Asia with their short/midrange missiles. They have demonstrated this by putting missile test shots OVER Japan.
Curious here, as I haven't been actively watching this for some time: Have they actually demonstrated any over-the-horizon control capability? Last I'd heard, they basically lost control the moment there wasn't a direct LOS. And, well... that's a pretty big limiting factor.

Callie Del Noire

Quote from: Ephiral on April 03, 2013, 12:03:36 PM
Curious here, as I haven't been actively watching this for some time: Have they actually demonstrated any over-the-horizon control capability? Last I'd heard, they basically lost control the moment there wasn't a direct LOS. And, well... that's a pretty big limiting factor.

They put a satellite in orbit..and all but the MOST conservative assessments say their short range and medium range missiles are reliable enough. They might not be precision weapons.. but when you drop radioactive waste, bio hazards such as bio agents/chemical agents you don't HAVE to be precise.

Quote from: Avis habilis on April 03, 2013, 12:01:46 PM
Which might be exactly why he's doing this now. An acute crisis may be his plan to get at least some supporters of his enemies in the palace thinking that now isn't "the convenient season" for a coup.

And perhaps draw out the more bold ones to put down before they consolidate their base.

gaggedLouise

#7
Reader comment seen in The Guardian:

"I hope his soldiers are taking great care keying in the right coordinates of Kim's palace when they ready these nuclear missiles."

:D

A coup could indeed be around the corner if his game swings the wrong way.

Good girl but bad  -- Proud sister of the amazing, blackberry-sweet Violet Girl

Sometimes bound and cuntrolled, sometimes free and easy 

"I'm a pretty good cook, I'm sitting on my groceries.
Come up to my kitchen, I'll show you my best recipes"

Callie Del Noire

Quote from: gaggedLouise on April 03, 2013, 12:13:01 PM
Reader comment seen in The Guardian:

"I hope his soldiers are taking geat care keying in the right coordinates of Kim's palace when they ready these nuclear missiles."

:D

A coup could indeed be around the corner if his game swings the wrong way.

The best housed, fed and treated citizens wear uniforms.. he (and his father/grandfather before him) know which side to butter their bread.

Caehlim

Quote from: Callie Del Noire on April 03, 2013, 11:52:00 AM
Also remember.. this is a NEW leader, he cannot back down.  If he falters and doesn't come down with a portion of what he seeks.. there are those who WILL try to usurp him. I imagine he plans on crushing those who aren't loyal.. but he still needs to consolidate his hold.

I've heard it argued that he isn't even in control at all now and is simply a puppet or figurehead for the powers that be within their military.

Anyone know whether this might be true or if there's been any evidence for this?
My home is not a place, it is people.
View my Ons and Offs page.

View my (new)Apologies and Absences thread or my Ideas thread.


BlightRaptor

God I'd like to turn invisible and walk around in North Korea just to see what it's like... every day it sounds more and more like some crazy dystopian dieselpunk sci-fi setting.

Sadly, I can't think of any possible outcomes where North Korea's civilians come out OK. If other nations play "tough love" then the average Joe in North Korea will probably get hit the hardest. If we give their government what they want, they'll just keep building weapons so they can have their war and inevitably get their own civilians caught in the cross fire. Then there's the possibility that whatever nuclear tech they're working on backfires on themselves...

Hyena Dandy

QuoteHow far will it go?

We have no idea. This guy is new to the whole Running North Korea thing, and we just have no clue what to think about him.

Maybe he's serious about intending to attack the U.S. Maybe he's just saber-rattling, the way the North has for centuries, but doing it louder.

We have no idea who this man is, whether he really intends to attack the U.S. or the South, and whether he has the ability to.

QuoteAre we taking it serious enough?

That's the big problem. Right now, we don't know, because we have no idea how seriously we're supposed to be taking it.

QuoteWhat should the U.S. do and/or how will the rest of the world respond?

I think the best thing we can do right now is have people ready to go into North Korea, all ready in South Korea. But not go in or make any attack yet. Officially treat it as 'We think they're bluffing,' but be ready to go at a moment's notice.

If we go in, and they're not bluffing, hundreds (or thousands, or more) of Americans and Koreans will die.

If we go in and they are bluffing, hundreds (or thousands, or more) of Americans and Koreans will die.

If we wait for them to do something first, and they are not bluffing, hundreds (or thousands, or more) of Americans and Koreans will die.

If we wait for them to do something first, and they are bluffing, no-one dies.

The best option is to wait. There's casualties if they're not bluffing anyway, and there's casualties if we go in, but if they are bluffing and we go in, people are dying for no reason.

Obviously, up intelligence work in the North as well. If we find enough reason to believe that this is being seriously considered, we have to go on.

As for China.. Who knows, but I think they said at some point they wouldn't support the North if the North launched a strike on Southern soil.

Oniya

The problem with having people 'ready in South Korea' (unless you are talking about actual South Korean troops) is that a saber-rattling dictator can take that as a 'sign' that we are 'massing to attack', and therefore he must launch a 'preemptive defense'.

Oh look, the big bad Americans are on our doorstep.  We had to take action before they rolled over us.  :P

If we want troops at the ready, they should be quartered on American soil (California, Hawaii if possible).  There's a little more travel time, but less chance of it being used as an excuse to actually do what they were bluffing about.
"Language was invented for one reason, boys - to woo women.~*~*~Don't think it's all been done before
And in that endeavor, laziness will not do." ~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~Don't think we're never gonna win this war
Robin Williams-Dead Poets Society ~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~Don't think your world's gonna fall apart
I do have a cause, though.  It's obscenity.  I'm for it.  - Tom Lehrer~*~All you need is your beautiful heart
O/O's Updated 5/11/21 - A/A's - Current Status! - Writing a novel - all draws for Fool of Fire up!
Requests updated March 17

TheGlyphstone

If I remember my Asian politics right, China likes having NK around because they're a huge pain in the neck to the Western world, in addition to being a valuable (if small) consumer market as far as their elite class goes, and one that China has near-exclusive access to. That, and it'd be a big problem for China if NK collapsed and a small army of starving refugees came flooding over the border into northern China. So as long as the new Kim is just saber-rattling and grand-standing in his family tradition, they'll be a backstage supporter, host for 'extortionconciliatory talks, primary trading partner, etc...if Kim Jong-Un were to actually pull the trigger, they'd have to drop him like a hot potato or take terrible international PR damage. They know this, and as far as we could tell, Jong-Il knew this, but whether Jong-Un knows this is uncertain.

Moraline

If North Korea goes all out and attacks the South and/or it's other neighbors, what should the response be to it?
(What if they just bomb the American Military bases in South Korea?)

Callie Del Noire


TheGlyphstone

QuoteKim enjoyed a series of musical numbers, including "Let us reap a richer bean harvest" and "All servicepersons and people will become human bullets and bombs."

Wat.

Inspiring composers you got there, Kim.

Sasquatch421

http://news.msn.com/world/north-korea-says-military-cleared-to-wage-nuke-attack

Honestly I don't think N. Korea has the tech to hit all they have said. Short to possibly mid-range would be a safer bet and S. Korea would be one of the first they go for I think. All we can do is play a guessing game at if they will actually bite or if they are barking... I would be prepared and hope they are bluffing since we can't afford to get into another conflict. Then again after Iraq and Afghanistan, this might be they time they decide not to bluff...

A big thing to look at is to see if China decides to step in... I don't think they have been really thrilled with North Korea of late, but it's been awhile since I've seen anything on it so I don't know...

Phaia

http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/weapons/north-korea-conflict-weapons-available


QuoteAt that distance it would be safe from most artillery, but according to GlobalSecurity.org it could be hit by up to 10,000 rounds a minute from North Korean long-range weapons. Here's a breakdown of North Korea's arsenal.

Read more: North Korea Artillery - Korea Conflict Weapons - Popular Mechanics

This concerns me more then any nuclear weapons they may have.
As well as 13000...yes 13000 artilly peices along the broader

http://www.businessinsider.com/map-of-the-day-how-north-korea-could-destroy-seoul-in-two-hours-2010-5?op=1

add the conflicting veiews on the number of possible artillry that could reach Seoul and ya get a real possiblity by the time we could react the North would have conqured the South....
Yes our air force could hammer the North hard but then they 1000s of AA guns and AA missles.

What would we do if the idea is unification which has always been the position of the North? Reinvade? From where do we pull the forces? right down we do not have the ability to send a major responce to Korea. 23 have about 30000 troops there...facing 1.5 north korea and Human wave attacks are part of the military tactics the North would use.


Phaia

Ephiral

Quote from: Phaia on April 03, 2013, 11:28:50 PM
http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/weapons/north-korea-conflict-weapons-available


This concerns me more then any nuclear weapons they may have.
As well as 13000...yes 13000 artilly peices along the broader

http://www.businessinsider.com/map-of-the-day-how-north-korea-could-destroy-seoul-in-two-hours-2010-5?op=1

add the conflicting veiews on the number of possible artillry that could reach Seoul and ya get a real possiblity by the time we could react the North would have conqured the South....
Yes our air force could hammer the North hard but then they 1000s of AA guns and AA missles.

Worth noting: It is very highly questionable how much of that gear is in anything resembling a functional state. Maintenance regimes in NK are... not good.

Callie Del Noire

Quote from: Ephiral on April 04, 2013, 12:51:03 AM
Worth noting: It is very highly questionable how much of that gear is in anything resembling a functional state. Maintenance regimes in NK are... not good.

Assumptions are not something you want to risk civilian lives over.

Kythia

Quote from: TheGlyphstone on April 03, 2013, 06:39:56 PM
Wat.

Inspiring composers you got there, Kim.

I know what it sounds like, but "All servicepersons and people will become human bullets and bombs." is actually brilliant.  It's got this jaunty syncopated chorus and the verse is just pure funk.  Slap bass bridge, then back into the chorus.  Man, I'm gonna be singing that to myself all day now.
242037

Ephiral

Quote from: Callie Del Noire on April 04, 2013, 01:05:57 AM
Assumptions are not something you want to risk civilian lives over.
Oh, absolutely not. I personally think the only thing it changes in the end is how long it would take to level Seoul. I just have an issue about flaky, unsupportable data being presented as solid.

Callie Del Noire

Quote from: Ephiral on April 04, 2013, 01:37:02 AM
Oh, absolutely not. I personally think the only thing it changes in the end is how long it would take to level Seoul. I just have an issue about flaky, unsupportable data being presented as solid.


I don't know about their missiles but we used to see in briefings hinted that their artillery and rocket systems weren't too maintenance heavy. One of the reasons Iran bought them in the past. Cheap, solid and fairly reliable.

The first strike will hurt.  The second will be MUCH smaller.

consortium11

Quote from: Kythia on April 04, 2013, 01:27:53 AM
I know what it sounds like, but "All servicepersons and people will become human bullets and bombs." is actually brilliant.  It's got this jaunty syncopated chorus and the verse is just pure funk.  Slap bass bridge, then back into the chorus.  Man, I'm gonna be singing that to myself all day now.

Aint got nothing on the Moranbong Band...

North Korean Music Video "Without a break" "단숨에" - Moranbong Band

I was surprised to admit that when I first heard it I actually quite liked it. Can imagine it in a weird alternate-universe European Song contest... albeit I'm not sure songs essentially glorifying missiles are quite what the Eurovision organisers have in mind...

Healergirl

#26
Ephiral's point about maintenanc s a very gd one.  yes,  cannon artillery is very robust compared to Missiles.  But thee is the ammunition to consider.  Do the NKs everytrow anything away?  A  chunk of their  ammo stockpile will dat back to the 1950's.  How reliable is the proppellant, the fuses, the payload charges themselves?

But with 10,000 tubes in range of Seoul, they  could still deliver up to one kiloton of high explosive to the city per hour.

here's a chilling thought:

Most people seem to think that a new round of fighting will be a repeat of 1950, with the North Korean Peoples Army blasing across the border en masse.

What if they have something more subtle in mind?

Here is my personal worst-case scenarios - and I did not come up with this, I got this from a talking head on TV some years ago:

At midnight of the appointed day, they open up on Seoul with everything they think can reach it.

And then they sit tight.  Well, except for their Special Forces units.  Which are not that special by Western standards, according to sites like Strategypage.com, their "special" forces are no better trained than "regular" Unites States Army Infantry.  Which means the NKPA regular troops are basicaly cannon fodder.

But back to the plan:

1.  They start shooting, their Speical forces lunge into South Korean rear areas to raise hell - and there are something like 110,000 of them, so some will get through and a lot of hell will be raised.

2.  The South Korean and American armies attack.  They have to, they have to, to stop that artillery barrage.  Those guns, many of them seem to be very well dug in, destroying them will take time and, well, one kiloton per hour and all that.  Yes, as guns are destroyed the bombardment will ease... but asking South Korean civilians to gut it out and take it will not be an option, really it will not.

3. The NKPA rides out the attack, lets the enemy smash itself on the border defenses - then counterpunches with a general counteroffensive - and this time they keep an eye on places like Inchon.

That may be their plan, anyway.  I think once the NKPA offers actual battle in the field, it will be be very quickly ground into mincemeat and iron filings  even if Allied airpower is preoccupied with silencing the guns bombarding Seoul.  And as to NK fortifications, well, the Allies know how to deal with those, they will not be impenetrable.

gaggedLouise

Talking of jaunty songs, I bet Kim would appreciate this cult anthem for no less a guy than Stalin. It was recorded twenty years after the Father of Peoples had passed on, and not in Russia, for sure, but in - Sweden, at the height of the left-wing swing of the seventies. The choir here are called Clenched Fists, and they formed within a very small left-wing sect party (who had no real influence on politics for sure).

Sången om Stalin

I've heard this one executed as a party trick by conservative student friends of mine. The singing is too cute, and this is...um, within a few years of "Mamma Mia". :) Hope the video isn't blocked in America.

The first few verses run:

We're singing a song resounding 'round the world
To a free republic, to the realm of the oppressor
Calling a name that shall hold us together
the song is of Stalin, our comrade and friend!

How it exults the struggle towards victory
Rebellion and class struggle it pushes to the fore.
Its sweet words resound with the working classes
raising repressed nations and peoples

We fear not death, restrictions or cannon
as our song storms the rickety walls of the patrons
Urging every man who is stepped on and robbed
join up as a soldier in our Revolution!

Good girl but bad  -- Proud sister of the amazing, blackberry-sweet Violet Girl

Sometimes bound and cuntrolled, sometimes free and easy 

"I'm a pretty good cook, I'm sitting on my groceries.
Come up to my kitchen, I'll show you my best recipes"

Healergirl

It wasn't blocked for me.  Stalinists are to the left as Royalists are to the Right.

gaggedLouise

#29
Quote from: Healergirl on April 04, 2013, 07:38:22 AM
It wasn't blocked for me.  Stalinists are to the left as Royalists are to the Right.

Good! Well, can't argue with the cheery brightness of the singing, can you?  ;)


(Looking it up on Swedish WP, I notice that it was translated from an older East German song. I'd always thought it was an original.)

Good girl but bad  -- Proud sister of the amazing, blackberry-sweet Violet Girl

Sometimes bound and cuntrolled, sometimes free and easy 

"I'm a pretty good cook, I'm sitting on my groceries.
Come up to my kitchen, I'll show you my best recipes"

Healergirl

Good Lord, no!  I'm brainwormed by the tune.  I'm humming it unless I catch myself, and I despise Stalinists!

gaggedLouise

They can also be heard on a live record (together with a bunch of other bands) with the wonderful title Listen to the Song of the Machines. A mostly acoustic gig.  ;D

Good girl but bad  -- Proud sister of the amazing, blackberry-sweet Violet Girl

Sometimes bound and cuntrolled, sometimes free and easy 

"I'm a pretty good cook, I'm sitting on my groceries.
Come up to my kitchen, I'll show you my best recipes"

Healergirl

Oh, get thee behind me, temptress!  I will have to acquire that.

Ephiral

I've always been partial to Der heimliche Aufmarsch, as propaganda anthems go. It's a bit of an earworm, and... well, it's got spirit. I can totally see how people could've been True Believers even in the worst days of Stalin, after hearing this.

Erich Weinert, Ernst Busch - Der Heimliche Aufmarsch (My translation in Russian)

Oniya

Aww, look at the cute little capitalist baddies!
"Language was invented for one reason, boys - to woo women.~*~*~Don't think it's all been done before
And in that endeavor, laziness will not do." ~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~Don't think we're never gonna win this war
Robin Williams-Dead Poets Society ~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~Don't think your world's gonna fall apart
I do have a cause, though.  It's obscenity.  I'm for it.  - Tom Lehrer~*~All you need is your beautiful heart
O/O's Updated 5/11/21 - A/A's - Current Status! - Writing a novel - all draws for Fool of Fire up!
Requests updated March 17

Healergirl

Ephiral,

I understand why people embrace Sainism, I even feel the tug myself on occasion.

But the problem with Stalinism is that you get people like Stalin running things, not people like Lincoln.

And yes Lincoln was demonstrably ruthless when he felt he needed to be.

gaggedLouise

I like the fact that one of Kim Jong Il's sons, the crown prince, tried to defect to Japan because he wanted to visit the Disneyland theme park there.  :D


Good girl but bad  -- Proud sister of the amazing, blackberry-sweet Violet Girl

Sometimes bound and cuntrolled, sometimes free and easy 

"I'm a pretty good cook, I'm sitting on my groceries.
Come up to my kitchen, I'll show you my best recipes"

Healergirl

Im not surprised by tht.  Capitalism and it's hedonistic blandishments are so insidious, even the most ideologically pure are not safe.

Neysha

A lot of the artillery is of the sub 170mm variety and thus cannot hit Seoul unless forward deployed. The larger artillery pieces can hit Northern Seoul as can almost all of their rocket and missile artillery. In response Seoul and much of the area close to the DMZ has extensive shelters for civiluans. Still in a first strike, you can expect the casualties, almost all civilian, in Seoul, to reach upwards of the tens of thousands. Which is actually a considerable improvement over earlier estimates.

The Us and South Korea actually have a bit of an advantage in that as the war goes on, NK capability will degrade and the US/SK will simply grow stronger as thr conflict goes on. The artillery aimed at Seoul is the main conventional concern. But unless its combined with a general offensive, the US/SK can eventually silence them by and large with their own air support and artillery. Then what will follow is Pattons old adage of why fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man.

North Korea has very elaborate defenses and their air defense network is as advanced as say Libyas or Serbias. Libya got trashed but Serbias was able to give NATO serious headaches. One of the semi known truths is that Serbia was able to still operate despite the NATO air campaign through the use of decoys and cami and in one exceptional case, the shootdown of a F117 stealth plane more due to excellent intelligence and poor NATO planning then technological flaws. North Korea has a air defense network far more elaborate then Serbias though it might not be as good quality wise.

Also keep in mind, Serbia was able to continue operations against a guerrila force, not a first rate military. Also while Serbias mikitary suffered light casualties, their air force was practically eliminated or suppressed and eventually the Serbs realized the NATO air csmpaign was going to keep blowing up depots and garrisons and whatnot and cause logistical collapse. And if NATO ground forces did invade, the Serbs woukd either have to flee or fight in the open. Plus they fired over 400 of their best missiles and managed like three kills. Those missiles are expensive and cannot be replaced quickly.

North Korea is like Serbia on steroids in air defense. The North Korean air force is a joke and will likely be dropped in an aerial turkey shoot. This isn't because NKs are bad pilots.  Its because they only have 25 hours of flight time possibly due to fuel shortages. Still it'll take hundreds of planes and thousands of bombs and missiles to gain air superiority since unlike Iraqis or Libyans, North Koreans are likely better at deception and disguising air defense so it can't be so easily wiped out. Still, even with all that, the US/SK can probably reduce North Korean air defense south of Pyongyang in like a week. If not by blowing it uo, then because the North Koreans will have literally run out of missiles to fire. (Don't laugh, that's what happened to North Vietnam in 1973) And US pilots have become very good at evading missiles and have been for decades.

Thus after a week, those fixed defenses would then come under such a horrible barrage of guided munitions, you'll see Pattons statement finally coming true. Fixed and static defenses have almost literally become obsolete tactically for the time being.

And even if North Korea still keeps the skies clear after a week, which is possible, US/SK artillery has advanced as well with orecision guided surface to surface missiles, GPS guided super munitions, UAVs and stealth aircraft that even without air support, North Korean artillery can be mitigated without directly assaulting their defenses prematurely.

The thing is... tens of thousands of South Koreans will likely still be killed or wounded regardless before they reach their shelters or head south and out if range.

And despite all of the coolness of US/SK tech, Iraq and Serbia and Libya are likely cakewalks compared to fighting North Korea and in every probable scenario, the casualties on both sides will reflect that.
My Request Thread
Ons & Offs/Role-Plays Current and Past
FemDex: Index of Fictional Women
F-List Profiles: Constance Carrington, Damashi, SCP6969
Prepare For The Next Eight Years
Find me on Discord at: mnblend6567
Credit for Avatar goes to "LoveandSqualor" on Deviant Art. (and Hayley Williams)

Moraline

#39
A couple of thoughts and concerns I've had after studying the conflict/situation...

1) I don't think China will stand by and let a U.S controlled state suddenly appear at their border. This is probably one of the trickiest things about the situation. While China doesn't necessarily support NK's current positioning, they do support NK. If push comes to shove I don't think China will back down from the U.S.

2) The scary part is that the people of NK fanatically support their country. This isn't a country divided. 
If you read news and watch documentaries on NK and it's people you'll see that they do not feel oppressed and they absolutely do love their leaders. In NK culture, the leaders and elders are revered as saviors and elevated to a status that might be considered a bit like the Pope of the Catholic church (2nd only to God.) Short of genocide there is almost no way to win a war against them.

Best case scenario if an all out conflict/war were to occur, is that the U.S. and it's allies could crush the NK military's ability to wage full scale war but they'll never be able to take control of NK.

Maybe but highly unlikely, they might be able to convince NK to become a Chinese state and what's the likelihood that anyone in the US government would even consider that as an option?

Thoughts/opinions?

TheGlyphstone

Keep in mind that the NK propaganda machine makes Stalinist Russia look like a supermarket tabloid. Nothing gets published or written within North Korea without the approval of their Ministry of Truth (or whatever it's called), even as far as foreign news agencies go. The last thing they'll allow is evidence of public unhappiness - so while I very much doubt the NK internal security has let any actual subversive activity escape, I would be very surprised if there are not pockets of discontent intermixed with the generational brainwashing. There are still families split across the DMZ, after all.

Healergirl

Lots of peole do seem to try to NK/Chnese border as well, which indicates that there is qute a bit of unhappines in dreamland.

Moraline...

China is between a rock and a hard place.

They know, probably better than anyone, just how nuts the NK leadership is.

They know the NK state is dying.

They don't want Korea to be unified as an American ally. 

They don't want NK to simply collapse, people will flood into China as well as  SK.

China gives conflicting signals as to how it will react to well, anything that happens to NK.

I think these are the public writhing of a government that simply does not know what to do.

And If they don't know what they are going to do, nobody else can.

Moraline

Interesting notes from:  http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2013/04/01-north-korea-oh

Chinese position on NK
QuoteDuring my visit to China in November 2012, young Chinese intellectuals and party cadres expressed to me their unhappiness with the Kim regime, although they know better than to directly contradict official Chinese policy. “The ‘First Fat,’ Kim Il-sung, was sort of a comrade to us, fighting against the colonial Japanese. The ‘Second Fat,’ his son Kim Jong-il, was disliked by most Chinese but we continued to support North Korea. Now this ‘Third Fat,’ Kim Jong-un, seems to be the worst of the lot.” China’s new leadership may continue with its traditional “noninterference policy” for a while, but the young Chinese elites have already lost patience with their troublesome neighbor, a fact that Kim Jong-un and his supporters must surely be aware of.



Moraline

adding another interesting quote that comes with a caution:  http://www.nieman.harvard.edu/reports/article/100804/The-Hidden-Stories-of-North-Korea.aspx

On life in NK from the eyes of Defectors...
QuoteDefectors: Journalists covering North Korea rely heavily on defectors. More than 4,000 defectors now live in South Korea and many more live in China. They are a gold mine of information about what life is really like outside the showcase city of Pyongyang. Away from North Korean minders and informants, they tell of eating bark and bugs to survive during the years of famine and of faking tears at the funeral of North Korea’s founder Kim Il Sung to feign loyalty to a despised regime. A retired chemist told me recently about watching political prisoners gassed to death with a cyanide compound as part of an experiment with chemical weapons. Others have told us about youth leagues enlisted to grow opium poppies for North Korea’s illicit drug trade. In these interviews, which often last for hours and involve considerable shedding of tears, one gets a glimpse of the flesh-and-blood people behind the caricatures.

The difficulty is that it is often hard to substantiate the claims of defectors. Desperate to win asylum, they have a powerful incentive to embellish. The unfortunate custom among some South Korean and Japanese journalists of paying for interviews adds another incentive for them to make up stories. Another problem is that defectors are not really representative of the North Korean population. As with any other refugee population, they tend to be the people who were most disenchanted with life in their home country. A disproportionate number come from a single province, North Hamgyong, at the Chinese border.

Healergirl

reading the Brookings article now, thanks Moraline!  Will start on the second soon.

Ephiral

I stumbled on this a while back, too. Thin on details, but still rather revealing. They've polished perestroika to an art form the Soviets never dreamed of, there.

Neysha

Well the other worrying thing is that North Korea is almost known to have considerable stockpiles of chemical weapons. Estimates of upwards of five thousand tons of various chemical weapons, including Sarin and VX nerve gas as well as considerable amounts of various blister agents (which gas masks are largely useless against) like mustard and phosgene gas and blood agents like hydrogen cyanide. It's possible though that their chemical warfare capability has been mitigated a great deal and the stockpiles they have hopefully have degraded a great deal in quantity and quality due to the economic malaise and decline occurring in North Korea, and the lack of importation of chemical compounds into North Korea over the past several decades. Also South Korea has distributed literally hundreds of thousands of gasmasks to the civilian population or has them available and many shelters have been or are being renovated for that contingency.

And of course, any chemical attack of this nature is considered justification by the United States for responding with Nuclear, Biological or Chemical attacks of their own. But since the US doesn't deploy biological or chemical weapons anymore, that narrows down the response a fair bit, if such a response is chosen, which isn't necessarily bound to happen.
My Request Thread
Ons & Offs/Role-Plays Current and Past
FemDex: Index of Fictional Women
F-List Profiles: Constance Carrington, Damashi, SCP6969
Prepare For The Next Eight Years
Find me on Discord at: mnblend6567
Credit for Avatar goes to "LoveandSqualor" on Deviant Art. (and Hayley Williams)

Healergirl

Neysha,

That is the joker in the deck.  But chemical weapons do have a shelf life and from all indications, NK maintenance and stockpile turnover is crap.

In addition... the chinese are becoming quite sensitive to how the world perceives them.  If NK does use chemical weapons, Chinese support will be iffy, to say the least.

Ephiral

Quote from: Healergirl on April 04, 2013, 07:33:45 PM
Neysha,

That is the joker in the deck.  But chemical weapons do have a shelf life and from all indications, NK maintenance and stockpile turnover is crap.

In addition... the chinese are becoming quite sensitive to how the world perceives them.  If NK does use chemical weapons, Chinese support will be iffy, to say the least.
The same can be said if NK launches a war of aggression at all. China hasn't much liked NK for quite a while now, and I don't see it letting itself get dragged into a potentially ugly war with the US because NK did something dumb.

gaggedLouise

#49
Saw this one on the BBC two years ago; it speaks volumes of the intolerable conditions inside North Korea when women try to wade through a fierce, icy river as here, only to risk being sent back by China if they are caught, sent most likely to torture, labor camp or death. Heartrending.


Escaping North Korea part 1- BBC documentary (English Subs)

Good girl but bad  -- Proud sister of the amazing, blackberry-sweet Violet Girl

Sometimes bound and cuntrolled, sometimes free and easy 

"I'm a pretty good cook, I'm sitting on my groceries.
Come up to my kitchen, I'll show you my best recipes"

Healergirl

#50
Ephiral,

I agree, if NK loses it and attacks, the Chinese will be as horrified as anybody.  But I do worry.  All those Chinese hackers, a very patriotic bunch.  China-based cyber attacks - even if not organized or sanctioned by the Chinese government could lead to a very ugly confrontation with the US, even if only diplomatic.

GaggedLouise,

Yes, I'd heard about an incident where NK border troops actually crossed into Chinese territory to grab women who thought they had reached safety..  Horrifying.


edited for spelling, rrr.

Moraline

#51
So, N.Korea has warned the nations of the world that they can "not guarantee the safety of diplomats on N.Korea soil after April 10th."

According to some treaty (not sure if it's U.N.), all world governments are supposed to see to the safe evacuation of diplomats on foreign soil in the event of war.

Is it more posturing by N.Korea or the first step to an act of aggression?

Also did anyone else hear about the Hacker Group, Anonymous, attacking N.Korea's websites, Flikr and Twitter account? What do we think of that? Some are saying it's dangerous provocation.
Wanted poster portraying Kim Jungun as a pigboy

I've come to the conclusion that I'm worried about the escalating tensions. I have friends that live over there and I worry for all of the innocent people in the region.

TheGlyphstone

Almost certainly posturing. Kim Jong Un needs to prove he can follow in his father and grandfather's footsteps in standing up to the US - we've backed down every time in the past because we're not lunatics willing to risk thousands of innocent lives on the off-chance it's not a bluff this time, but from their side of the fence the only thing that matters is continuing to 'win' the faceoffs.

Moraline

Quote from: TheGlyphstone on April 07, 2013, 01:44:20 PM
Almost certainly posturing. Kim Jong Un needs to prove he can follow in his father and grandfather's footsteps in standing up to the US - we've backed down every time in the past because we're not lunatics willing to risk thousands of innocent lives on the off-chance it's not a bluff this time, but from their side of the fence the only thing that matters is continuing to 'win' the faceoffs.
The scary part though is that it hasn't always been posturing on the part of N.Korea. Last year they did shell a border city, they sunk a S. Korean ship and have committed other acts. Do they think they can go further? Will they do so? How far will South Korea or the rest of the world let them? I think that I'm worrying too much but it does make a person wonder. Some analysts are saying that we should be taking them seriously.

Healergirl

Moraline,

I don't think you are worrying too much.  the NKs keep getting away with it so they keep pushing a little harder each time.  Sooner or later, they will hit steel instead of mush.

Mr Bigglesworth

Kim Jon Un it seems, has learned the posturing and threatening tactics from his father, the worrisome part is that he doesn't have the experience to play such a dangerous game - His father was crazy & smart, I worry that Kim Jon Un is just crazy...

Phaia

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/north-korea-kim-jong-un-war-201715650.html

This concerns me a lot...I have a brother in a marine team that would be a first responder to an attack

what reaaly got me was this

QuoteFox News host Greta Van Susteren, who has visited North Korea three times, said negotiation is not something on the minds of most North Koreans.

"The whole time we were there, all we saw was preparation for war," Van Susteren said. "If you go inside, they have been at war with us since the early 1950s. They think that every single one of us is spending every Saturday night sitting around planning how to get them while we're busy ordering pizzas and Chinese food carryout, they think that we're getting ready for war."

that measn not only would we face the 1.5 Million man NK army but probally the entire population...it has been noted that our air force could force NK to use up all their missles...well ground troops do not carry that much ammo... during the Korea war human wave attacks overran many positions even when 100s if not 1000s were killed in the attacks.

Its the mind set they have that we do not...they truely believe we would kill them all even if they gave up....How do we fight?


as for earlier comments about the problems with Nks artillery even if half of the tubes dont work that is still 6500 tubes

also there is lots of conflicting reports on the ranges of the artielly...for some years the NK had the longest ranged arty in the world...they also make scud missles and sell them..inaccurate for most purposes but then shooting at a city ya do not need to be pinpoint

Their plan for using their speaicl forces is not to wait to midnight on the date of the attack but to work them into the southa  week or more ahead of time and ready to attack the staging areas for the RKA and the US forces.

anyway this all concerns me

Phaia

Mr Bigglesworth

“No one should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gains,” Chinese President Xi Jinping" (From Washington Post) - I think that China wants a war there less than we do, it could be expensive for us in terms of lives and $$, but China has a lot more to lose if it gets drawn into a bloody war so close to home.

Moraline

#58
Quote5 hrs ago, ABC News Videos
Speculation mounts that Kim Jong Un is preparing a nuclear show of force.

QuoteBy Christine Kim

PAJU, South Korea (Reuters) - North Korea suspended its sole remaining major project with the South on Monday, after weeks of threats against the United States and South Korea, as Russian President Vladimir Putin said any nuclear conflict could make Chernobyl look like a fairy tale.

Reclusive North Korea's decision to all but close the Kaesong industrial park coincided with speculation that it will carry out some sort of provocative action - another nuclear weapons test or missile launch - in what has become one of the most serious crises on the peninsula since the end of the Korean War in 1953. (Source - reported roughly 9:00 am EST North American Time)

QuoteBy HYUNG-JIN KIM | Associated Press – 18 mins ago

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea said Monday it will suspend operations at a factory complex it has jointly run with South Korea, pulling out more than 53,000 North Korean workers and moving closer to severing its last economic link with its rival as tensions escalate.

The Kaesong industrial complex just north of the Demilitarized Zone is the biggest employer in North Korea's third-largest city. Shutting it down, even temporarily, would show that the destitute country is willing to hurt its own economy to display its anger with South Korea and the United States.

I think there is something to this April 10th deadline. I'm suspecting that North Korea is considering another possible nuclear test.

Callie Del Noire

Quote from: Mr Bigglesworth on April 08, 2013, 06:49:03 AM
“No one should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gains,” Chinese President Xi Jinping" (From Washington Post) - I think that China wants a war there less than we do, it could be expensive for us in terms of lives and $$, but China has a lot more to lose if it gets drawn into a bloody war so close to home.

They, China, aren't as entirely invested in North Korea as they were back nearly 60 years ago. I think the only thing they want from NK is to keep the pensulia divided so that SK isn't as big an industrial powerhouse as it could be. South Korea is one of strong economies they might not want to see grow.

Of course they have to deal with a 3rd generation nutjob and have to wonder how they can keep him under control.

Healergirl

Closing down Kaesong?  *said rather weakly*

Dear God.  They aren't just shooting themselves in the foot.  Economically, this is shooting themselves in the gut,  if not the head.

It does occur to me that in their own little universe, they may see this as a crippling blow to the SK economy.  It will certainly do a number on the cash flow that enables the  NK elite to buy goodies.l

TheGlyphstone

That's the problem with multiple generations of propaganda - after a while, even you start to believe it.

Neysha

The real concern for war wouldn't start until you get reports of reserves in North Korea being activated/mobilized and even more significant movement of forces to the DMZ. AFAIK that hasn't occurred yet.
My Request Thread
Ons & Offs/Role-Plays Current and Past
FemDex: Index of Fictional Women
F-List Profiles: Constance Carrington, Damashi, SCP6969
Prepare For The Next Eight Years
Find me on Discord at: mnblend6567
Credit for Avatar goes to "LoveandSqualor" on Deviant Art. (and Hayley Williams)

TheGlyphstone

That's a good point. The North Korean Army is not exactly primed for rapid response or blitzkreig, there will be plenty of advance notice and warning from recon satellites if Jong Un really decides to throw the marbles instead of waving his metaphorical dick around.

Question Mark

Quote from: Neysha on April 08, 2013, 01:29:21 PM
The real concern for war wouldn't start until you get reports of reserves in North Korea being activated/mobilized and even more significant movement of forces to the DMZ. AFAIK that hasn't occurred yet.

This.

My money's on an open-air nuclear test, or maybe another "accident" like Yeonpyeong.

Phaia

#65
Quote from: TheGlyphstone on April 08, 2013, 01:47:49 PM
That's a good point. The North Korean Army is not exactly primed for rapid response or blitzkreig, there will be plenty of advance notice and warning from recon satellites if Jong Un really decides to throw the marbles instead of waving his metaphorical dick around.

The North Korea Army is already mostly deployed...they are based near the DMZ and have been set to high readiness sent the North issued this warning...

add to that on the 2nd China put forces on a 'Level One " alert which is the highest they have

http://leaksource.wordpress.com/2013/04/02/china-mobilizes-military-on-level-one-high-alert-over-north-korea-threats/

http://www.armytimes.com/article/20130408/NEWS/304080025/Japan-increasingly-nervous-about-North-Korea-nukes

April 15 is the birthday of the NK founder , grandfather to the current loony toon and everyone seems to believe ther will be some sort of missle luanch By Nk on that day...
This is now ratcheting pass safety and into...bite my nails and pray someone in North Korea says STOP!!

Phaia

Callie Del Noire

Quote from: Question Mark on April 08, 2013, 01:55:19 PM
This.

My money's on an open-air nuclear test, or maybe another "accident" like Yeonpyeong.

I find myself wondering if there are any contested islands in the nads of SK that they might try to claim by force.

Moraline

QuoteThe North’s latest warning, issued by its Asia-Pacific Peace Committee, urged foreign companies and tourists to leave South Korea.

“The situation on the Korean Peninsula is inching close to a thermonuclear war due to the evermore undisguised hostile actions of the United States and the South Korean puppet warmongers and their moves for a war against” North Korea, the committee said in a statement carried by state media on Tuesday.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/skorean-managers-say-north-korean-colleagues-not-showing-up-for-work-at-joint-factory-complex/2013/04/08/3fc0d6a4-a0af-11e2-bd52-614156372695_story.html

QuoteU.S. official: North Korea could test fire missiles at any time
By Barbara Starr, Jethro Mullen and Joe Sterling, CNN
updated 5:10 PM EDT, Tue April 9, 2013
http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/09/world/asia/koreas-tensions/index.html

This is getting scary as shit.

Healergirl

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/korea/articles/20130404.aspx

A very good open intelligence summary.  You may have to go to the main page to refresh on futre dates.

Moraline

#69
Quote"A presenter on North Korea's state broadcaster KRT announces on Thursday that the country is ready to attack South Korea. The woman says the exact co-ordinates have been inputted into warheads and that once the button had been pushed 'our enemies will be turned to a sea of flames'"

~ Source: Video with English subtitles direct from North Korea TV  http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2013/apr/11/north-korea-missiles-south-video
Original source:  Reuters,  Thursday 11 April 2013
Yesterday I was feeling okay about this whole situation and not as worried. I had come to believe that this was definitely just the rhetoric like always. Now I'm worried that it may be rhetoric but what if someone makes a mistake or an accident happens, it feels like we are at a breaking point and I'm concerned again.



Healergirl

Moraline,

I wish I could say there is no cause for concern.  NK may well be 'merely' posturing, but after the last round of incidents that killed SK citizens, well, how do the NKs top that?  And topping that is something they may feel they have to do to keep world attention, they will feel a powerful impulse to match that level at teheery least - or they will be perceived to have backed down.  In their own minds, I do think this is what they are thinking.

In my opinion,  SK and US military commanders are quite justified if they are  assuming that whatever NK plans to do, killing people is part of their program. They will not, I think, stand by and let NK operations unfold the way NK wants them to.

TheGlyphstone

And keep in mind that they've also claimed to be readying their 'vast nuclear arsenal', when they've only managed a handful of stationary nuclear tests, none of which were on missiles. NK may very well be planning to cause some sort of incident, but any claims they're making of the scope or scale of the 'war' they're plotting are almost certainly overblown.

gaggedLouise

#72
I also feel that Kim and his guys have pushed themselves to a point where they can't back down without losing the initiative in their ongoing game of cards with their neighbours, with the US and the international community, and losing face in front of lots of people. They're likely to sense they have to do something impressive, though I don't see them trying to pitch an atomic bomb on Seoul. That would be plain suicide, and would go down bad even with many ordinary north Koreans. But yeah, I'd be surprised if they don't launch a missile in the next few days (though it would not have to hold a nuclear warhead), or even within the next 24 hours.

@Glyph: True, it doesn't look like they have mastered the art of putting a nuke warhead onto a mid- or long-range missile and making it work.

Good girl but bad  -- Proud sister of the amazing, blackberry-sweet Violet Girl

Sometimes bound and cuntrolled, sometimes free and easy 

"I'm a pretty good cook, I'm sitting on my groceries.
Come up to my kitchen, I'll show you my best recipes"

Healergirl

The latest from Strategypage:

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/20130411.aspx

April 11, 2013: Iran is paying close to North Korea’s recent effort to threaten the world into submission via the threat of using primitive (and recently developed) nuclear weapons. The results of this are not in yet, but if the North Korean nuclear intimidation fails Iran would be more willing to abandon their nuclear ambitions. The reason is cost; the Iranian nuclear weapons program has cost over $100 billion so far (in direct costs and lost revenue from economic sanctions). The biggest domestic threat to the religious dictatorship that controls Iran is popular outrage over rising unemployment, inflation and shortages. Money is the solution for that and if so much money is going into supporting the nuclear weapons program that you trigger another revolution, then the nukes aren’t worth it. The fate of North Korea’s current use of nuclear blackmail will carry a very important message to Iran.

So far the North Korean intimidation campaign isn’t doing too well. The North Koreans, like the Iranians, have been making threats for years. While the media pays attention to this theater most people do not. North Korea, like Iran, cannot afford to escalate to a real war because they would lose. Both countries are ruled by dictatorships. In Iran’s case it’s a religious clique while North Korea is run by a hereditary military dynasty (that once pretended it was communist). In both countries the people are not happy with their inept and bellicose rulers. North Korea appears to be trying to goad the U.S. or South Korea into attacking so that North Korea can declare itself a victim of foreign oppression and call on the world have pity and send lots of free stuff. That has worked in the past but even with the presence of some nukes (of questionable effectiveness) the North Korean rants no longer terrify. This time around, the reviews have become dismissive and the North Korean leaders are facing a major internal crisis if their bellowing results only in derisive laughter.

At the same time it should be noted that Iran began working on nuclear technology before the clerics took over the government in the 1980s. In the 1970s Iran sought to obtain a nuclear power plant. This is always the first step in developing nuclear weapons and it was later discovered that this was the Shah’s ultimate goal. This news did not surprise the Arab neighbors (who have been waiting for Iran to makes its move for over forty years) or Iranians themselves (who have long believed that Iran, the local superpower for thousands of years, should have nuclear weapons). Many of the key scientists for Iran’s current nuclear power and weapons program began their training under the Shah’s long range effort to make Iran a state with nuclear power, and weapons.

When the clerics tossed out the Shah in 1979 they did examine all that they inherited from the Shah. The math was against the nuclear power program, as it was, at the time, cheaper to generate electricity with oil and gas than with nuclear fuel. But eventually the clerics realized that the Shah’s plan for developing nuclear weapons made sense and that program was revived under the guise of a nuclear energy program (which eventually made sense once the price of oil was high enough and the war with Iraq was over). But that effort is costing ordinary Iranians a lot and that is not popular at all.

Healergirl

A column on the North Korean crisis by columnist austin bay.

North Korea's Target List Is a Freudian Slip

by Austin Bay
April 2, 2013

http://www.strategypage.com/on_point/2013040223742.aspx

I recommend reading the whole thing, but here is the last paragraph, which is the most common-sense passage I have yet heard/read  about the crisis:

"What is the intelligence indicator that will tell us when Washington and Seoul believe the propaganda campaign is over and war is likely? South Korea hosts thousands of U.S. military dependents. When they start to leave, pay close attention."

gaggedLouise

#75
The intelligence branch of the Pentagon have re-evaluated NK's technical capacity when it comes to delivering a nuke by a missile. They suppose, for the first time, with some “moderate confidence” (they think it's likely) that Kim's people have learned how to make a nuclear weapon small enough to be rigged onto a rocket and actually aimed at a distant location, though the marksmanship is not likely to be very good - nothing like cruise missiles or, still less, GPS-guided ones. - The report has been around for a few weeks, it seems, circulated around Pentagon.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/12/world/asia/north-korea-may-have-nuclear-missile-capability-us-agency-says.html?ref=global-home&_r=0

Good girl but bad  -- Proud sister of the amazing, blackberry-sweet Violet Girl

Sometimes bound and cuntrolled, sometimes free and easy 

"I'm a pretty good cook, I'm sitting on my groceries.
Come up to my kitchen, I'll show you my best recipes"

Graceful

Living within 25 miles of Sacramento is getting more than a little scary - if there is an actual war and Kim's crazy enough to start firing nukes at California, I'm gonna be right near a big, juicy target. Makes me wish I didn't have obligations here and run out to Truckee and hang out in the back-woods tree hippie buddies I have in the mountains up there until things simmer down.

Callie Del Noire

Quote from: AkiraRevile on April 11, 2013, 11:58:11 PM
Living within 25 miles of Sacramento is getting more than a little scary - if there is an actual war and Kim's crazy enough to start firing nukes at California, I'm gonna be right near a big, juicy target. Makes me wish I didn't have obligations here and run out to Truckee and hang out in the back-woods tree hippie buddies I have in the mountains up there until things simmer down.

I think if he can (and does) lob a nuke at California, it's more likely San Diego will be up higher on the list. Home to the Pacific Fleet, Special Warfare units, MASSIVE repair facilities and dozens of squadrons.. Sacremento would be on the list.. but I imagine that LA, San Diego and San Fran will be higher.

gaggedLouise

#78
I imagine Cali would be a very, very long shot - just because they may have the ability to sling nukes by means of a missile doesn't mean they have the technical skill to do it on a distance of 8000 km or something, and get it on target in that kind of pitch. They have never even successfully launched a missile with that kind of range, and have no routine at all in using that stuff as weapons in anything simulating a war situation. Japan or Guam would be much more likely. But those are bad enough.

Good girl but bad  -- Proud sister of the amazing, blackberry-sweet Violet Girl

Sometimes bound and cuntrolled, sometimes free and easy 

"I'm a pretty good cook, I'm sitting on my groceries.
Come up to my kitchen, I'll show you my best recipes"

Healergirl

Nk missiles may be able to reach Guam, but can they hit it? I'm perfectly serious, Guam is a big island, but actually hitting a target at those range is a far from trivial technical problem

gaggedLouise

#80
Apparently Kim's people said they were going to nuke Tokyo first, but that's almost certainly empty threats. If they tried that, they would trigger some kind of massive retaliation, plus the Tokyo area will be protected by a good deal of ABMs and radar, so the chance of any NK rocket hitting target there would be very small.

Good girl but bad  -- Proud sister of the amazing, blackberry-sweet Violet Girl

Sometimes bound and cuntrolled, sometimes free and easy 

"I'm a pretty good cook, I'm sitting on my groceries.
Come up to my kitchen, I'll show you my best recipes"

NotoriusBEN

This from the washington post: http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-04-03/world/38241106_1_north-koreans-missile-threat-defense-secretary-chuck-hagel

Of the listed Anti missile systems that the US has, they are considering moving a couple of THAAD systems (basically overpowered patriot missiles) to Guam, but have already moved a couple Aegis-class warships to interdict any missiles from the North Koreans.


Nothing is confirmed if/where/when stuff is there, but Im sure the government has it's bases covered and ducks in a row at the moment on anything short of invasion.

gaggedLouise

#82
On resources and systems the U.S. has on the table to shoot down a nuclear missile in flight:

http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2013-03/us-says-it-could-stop-north-korean-missile-how

Good girl but bad  -- Proud sister of the amazing, blackberry-sweet Violet Girl

Sometimes bound and cuntrolled, sometimes free and easy 

"I'm a pretty good cook, I'm sitting on my groceries.
Come up to my kitchen, I'll show you my best recipes"