Brexit

[Tolvo]

I still don't really get Brexit. Because don't you still have to use all the EU trade regulations and rules when they're your main trade partner except now you just have less good deals and benefits?

[Mechelle]

I still don't really get Brexit. Because don't you still have to use all the EU trade regulations and rules when they're your main trade partner except now you just have less good deals and benefits?

I don't really get it either!
It depends on just what deal, if any, is arranged (and some Brexiteers really don't want one for ideological reasons) but it could well mean having to comply with the rules of the single market without any opportunity to influence those rules.

[Tolvo]

Like I get for a lot of them it is just ignorance or hatred fueling them, and for certain politicians it is about using those people to gain power, but they're really not thinking in the long term or about how maybe they'll gain this small thing while potentially really damaging their country's economy.

[Mechelle]

Well, Theresa May, who I can't fault for her tenacity,  has got through the first stage of her Brexit plan, by getting it through the Cabinet, although there were apparently many objectors in there, although not the prominent Brexiter Michael Gove, who has supported her. A number of Conservative MPs have openly called for her resignation (there have to be 48), while she has met Jeremy Corbyn, to try to get his support. That seems unlikely, although the word is that some Labour MPs will support her, rather than face a "no deal".

I haven't read the 585 page document on the agreement as you may appreciate, but I note that the end period for the transitional arrangement where we remain as effectively non-voting members of the European Union was apparently put as 31st December 20xx, so there may be a long way to go yet. In fact, I am sure there will be.

[gaggedLouise]

Well, Theresa May, who I can't fault for her tenacity,  has got through the first stage of her Brexit plan, by getting it through the Cabinet, although there were apparently many objectors in there, although not the prominent Brexiter Michael Gove, who has supported her. A number of Conservative MPs have openly called for her resignation (there have to be 48), while she has met Jeremy Corbyn, to try to get his support. That seems unlikely, although the word is that some Labour MPs will support her, rather than face a "no deal".

I haven't read the 585 page document on the agreement as you may appreciate, but I note that the end period for the transitional arrangement where we remain as effectively non-voting members of the European Union was apparently put as 31st December 20xx, so there may be a long way to go yet. In fact, I am sure there will be.

They didn't nail a specific year in the draft document? (I think it was originally meant to be the end of 2020, a 21-month period, but there's also been talk of optionally extending it, of course, to gain more time for negotiations on future trade deals and lots of fine print).

Considering the crabwalking of negotiations this far, I can see the point of extending the phase-out period, as far as getting the talk done goes - though it's not a state that will make anyone very happy.  ^_ ^


I have only read a couple of news pieces about this, but at a quick glance it looks like Michel Barnier could be right: given the weird circumstances, this is close to the best deal the UK would be likely to get. And clearly preferable to a no-deal crashout.

[gaggedLouise]

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab has resigned: https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1062992019449098241

[Tolvo]

Yikes. Is there like any way to possibly reverse Brexit at this stage? I imagine it is way too far gone. But while a lot of Americans like to point at your country and laugh about how it is hurting itself as ours literally is on fire, I also really worry because this is gonna hurt so many people and possibly ruin your economy if it does get bad enough.

[gaggedLouise]

Yikes. Is there like any way to possibly reverse Brexit at this stage? I imagine it is way too far gone. But while a lot of Americans like to point at your country and laugh about how it is hurting itself as ours literally is on fire, I also really worry because this is gonna hurt so many people and possibly ruin your economy if it does get bad enough.

The only real option to undo it would be a new referendum with the alternatives: 1) the current deal - 2) no deal - 3) Remain and no Brexit. There's been serious calls for that, and it's possible that Remain would actually win such a poll, but I understand it's very unlikely to happen at this point. Both Tories and Labour are too internally divided in their views of the EU and Brexit, so Labour are unlikely to push it through, and too many politicians would lose face if there was a sharp brake-and-reverse on the entire Brexit process.

They've made a horrible mess of this whole thing, guided by an oldfashioned, outdated and oversized idea of Britain (by which they really mean England) as the number one power in the World, the nation that everybody must admire for its supreme achievements, and who will take advice from no one but her own guys.

[Tolvo]

I really cannot understand the way of thinking based on wanting this sort of outcome. I get ignorance, I get hatred, I get nationalism. But I don't get the people who want an immediate gain in power from this without any long term plans at all.

[gaggedLouise]

I really cannot understand the way of thinking based on wanting this sort of outcome. I get ignorance, I get hatred, I get nationalism. But I don't get the people who want an immediate gain in power from this without any long term plans at all.

Some of the hard Brexiteers (like Boris or Jacob Rees-Mogg and their following) seem to think that by leaving the EU with a hard. sharp break, and discarding anything "froggy European",  they can rejuvenate Britain to what she was before WW2, if not before WW1 - only with modern technology and stuff. They dream of restoring the British spirit as it existed in Livingstone, Churchill, Francis Drake, Ian Fleming and James Cook - and freed from the bonds of the post-WW2 Welfare state, multiculturalism and too much immigration. They want a Britain that's tougher, less namby-pamby, superior to any other European country but disdainfully distant from them. In short, they want a Britain that's more like Donald Trump's idea of America, but with the veneer of ye olde English traditions...  :P

Unfortunately most of us know that the idea of the British empire (and its classism and sense of inborn superiority) effectively died at Suez, in 1956. Yep, that's sixty-two years ago.

[Tolvo]

It is always weird for me when people want that sort of thing with like Ethnostates, because where is the cut off? If it's like a "True Pure England" they want, what is the cut off? Do you have to be a pure blood Briton or Pict if those even exist today? Do they cut off with those of Danish, Norman, Roman, descent? England as a concept was built on immigration, multiculturalism, integration, and mingling.

[gaggedLouise]

I don't think it's so much about pure blood really - Winston Churchill, one of their biggest totemic idols, was half American and the royal family, in the days of Victoria, was ethnically German (yes!); there's still a fairly big share of "German blood" in Elizabeth and Prince Charles. But they have this idea that the soul of England, the proper functioning and identity of the country, has been vitiated by all kinds of foreign, fussy ideas, namby-pambiness, PCism and all kinds of human rights crap 8ande economic obstacles): they (many of the leading brexiteers and some of their foillowing) want to get rid of all that and make Britain tougher, more inventive, more swashbuckling - and more of a class society - again.

They are very heavily invested in the notion of Britain as the preeminent world leader of civilization, a country that rose to become a unique example of enlightened politics, wealth, swashbuckling enterprise and military prowess, rose to become, by birthright, the first in rank of all countries and nations on the planet, the teacher of mankind, and does not accept to be bound by any laws but her own. *draws breath* Britain as an empire with a manifest destiny, you could say.

[Tolvo]

Fair I was more so taking their views on immigration to a logical extreme. Nationalism in general just seems to me like it leads down a rabbit hole of what is considered a true member of said nation.

Britain has accelerationists right? They must love all this going on frankly.

[gaggedLouise]

Fair I was more so taking their views on immigration to a logical extreme. Nationalism in general just seems to me like it leads down a rabbit hole of what is considered a true member of said nation.

Britain has accelerationists right? They must love all this going on frankly.

You mean people who want to use a political and economic crisis (which they have aggravated themselves) to shake up the country with some shock therapy, and rapidly break down some established legal and civic rights, without having to be fully responsible for it? Yes, I guess that's what you could call it.

[Callie Del Noire]

To be honest I find it interesting that the raging Brexit loons ALL avoided being appointed PM everyday short of fleeing the country but they refuse to work with Downing Street or the EU to come up with something manageable. If I was May, I’d flip the parliament obstructionist crowd the bird, present my resignation to the Queen and be done with it.

Honestly she seems to getting no support and all the blame.  I’d put Johnson in the hot seat and let him roast.

[Sara Nilsson]

It is always weird for me when people want that sort of thing with like Ethnostates, because where is the cut off? If it's like a "True Pure England" they want, what is the cut off? Do you have to be a pure blood Briton or Pict if those even exist today? Do they cut off with those of Danish, Norman, Roman, descent? England as a concept was built on immigration, multiculturalism, integration, and mingling.

As long as you are just like *I* am.

That seems to be the bar most of these people set, i hear it here in the US all the time. They are the pure americans (snort giggle) and anyone who isn't like them is an immigrant and dangerous.

In other words, there is no logic to try and understand.

[Mechelle]

What a day it has been!
Plenty of resignations from Brexiters, none of whom offer an alternative plan. I do admire her tenacity, but I also can't help remembering her sending vans out with warnings shouted at immigrants through loudspeakers, and calling an election through her hubris which she lost. She is better than many of the Conservative Party's alternatives though, and some of whom were in charge of the negotiations, not that they take any responsibility.

In her press conference, she said that she would like to emulate her cricketing hero, Geoffrey Boycott, who was famous for guarding his wicket and accumulating runs, slowly but surely. Yes, but he was also famous for running out his team mates, sacrificing them and a possible match result for the sake of his own batting average, and for his racist remark that he would need to black up to get a knighthood, although the fact he was convicted in France of beating up his partner was probably a stronger factor. He is also a keen Brexiter, so he was an odd choice in this context, to say the least!

[Beorning]

Okay, so I'd like to ask: anyone knows the specifics of the proposed deal? Why all the resignations, why do the pro-Brexit people consider it a bad deal?

[Mechelle]

I haven't read the 585 page document, nor I think, have all of those who have resigned, as it's all too apparent that they never off an alternative plan of their own. Brexiters have tended to argue about concepts like sovereignty, which can't be measured.
In a nutshell, though, I think it's because Mrs May's plan keeps us within European structures, bound by any regulations, but with no opportunity to influence them.

Incidentally, the number of Conservative MPs sending in letters of no confidence in her leadership seem to be much lower than expected.

[gaggedLouise]

Dominic Raab (ex-Brexit Sec) has a lightbulb moment...but fails to realize its point is not so much about Theresa May, but about the way the Tories have managed and discussed the entire Brexit process. :)

(live update feed)

50m ago
08:12
Raab: staying in EU better than May's deal

Former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab has claimed that Theresa May’s deal on Brexit would be worse than staying in the EU. Asked on Today to chose between no Brexit at all and May’s deal, Raab eventually said:

"If you just presented me terms: this deal or EU membership, because we would effectively be bound by the same rules without the control or voice over them, yes I think this would be even worse than that."

He pointed out that under the deal the only way for the UK to get out of the backstop arrangement would be with the EU’s agreement. He said this would involving losing control over our laws. He added: “We would have to kowtow to them”.

Asked about a report in the Telegraph that some Brexit cabinet minsters were plotting a negotiated no deal, Raab said: “I would certainly be up for making a best final offer and then considering no deal deals like, but that is not the course the prime minister has taken. The reality is the deal we have got on the table.”

Raab also said the current agreement was unlikely to be passed by the Commons, and that ministers should contemplate leaving without one, saying: “We will, I think, inevitably see Parliament vote this deal down.

“And then I think some of those other alternatives will need to come into play.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/23/eu-meets-to-finalise-theresa-may-brexit-agreement-text-amid-spanish-threats-politics-live

Yeah, right! :)

[Mechelle]

Despite the "Spanish threats", the EU 27 have agreed with Theresa May's withdrawal plan.
Much the harder part will be for her to get her plan through Parliament, though, even if the attempt of the right-wing Brextremists to depose her has already failed.

[Callie Del Noire]

I haven't read the 585 page document, nor I think, have all of those who have resigned, as it's all too apparent that they never off an alternative plan of their own. Brexiters have tended to argue about concepts like sovereignty, which can't be measured.
In a nutshell, though, I think it's because Mrs May's plan keeps us within European structures, bound by any regulations, but with no opportunity to influence them.

Incidentally, the number of Conservative MPs sending in letters of no confidence in her leadership seem to be much lower than expected.

I think it’s brcause they aren’t sure they can build a government in a timely manner and no one wants to take her job till this is resolved. Too many folks are full of hate and complaints about the process but I’ve not seen one stuffed shirt say anything constructive at all about alternative methods

Any chump who manages to build a government would be covered in the blowback from the current deal imploding.  I give it a 2:5 chance of passing and NO ONE will be happy but if it passes the PM will be out on her ear

[gaggedLouise]

I think it’s brcause they aren’t sure they can build a government in a timely manner and no one wants to take her job till this is resolved. Too many folks are full of hate and complaints about the process but I’ve not seen one stuffed shirt say anything constructive at all about alternative methods

Any chump who manages to build a government would be covered in the blowback from the current deal imploding.  I give it a 2:5 chance of passing and NO ONE will be happy but if it passes the PM will be out on her ear

I can understand that those Brexiteers who were outright motivated by runaway nationalism and by a sentimental dream of how "England is always the strongest when she stands tough and tall on her own" (as in 1940, or like a punching boxer) will feel very let down by May's deal. But if the primary motive was grudges about the EU meddling in British law processes and pulling the UK into all sorts of business deals and various treaties which "the common people" didn't want, impatience with EU demands for ever closer integration etc, then those people need to realize that they were never going to get all that they were asking for without inflicting heavy, crippling blows to the economy and to the day-to-day run of British society. Britain is much less self-sufficient now than it was in the 1930s and the empire is *not* coming back, noy even in the guise of a ragtag Commonwealth. Anyway, countries like Canada, Jamaica, Australia and India are probably more keen to expand their trade with the EU than to offer Britain special free-trade packages.

[Tolvo]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46352463

Since it fits in both threads, Trump says May's deal means that the US and UK may not be able to trade and how bad he thinks it is and that it heavily favors the EU. So you know, Brexit is going wonderful.

[Tolvo]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46446694

The full Brexit legal advice will be published, due to a 18 vote lead on those against it, 311 votes to 293.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1070001166464049152

Is the moment the vote was announced live with the reactions of those in the House of Commons.